# Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting: Impact Analysis of Temperature for Thailand

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## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

#### 1.1. Motivation and Background

#### 1.2. Review of Related Works

#### 1.2.1. Temperature Effect

#### 1.2.2. Weekend, Holiday/Special Day Effects

#### 1.2.3. Grouping of Dataset

#### 1.3. Model Selection

#### 1.4. Contributions

- The marginal impact of temperature that leads to raising the demand for day hours and night hours is explored for Thailand which is quite useful for tropical countries.
- The quantitative analysis among the variables such as the impact of holidays, working days, working days after a holiday/long holiday, AR effect, special days/events such as Bangkok flood for the demand is discussed in detail.
- The unexpected Bangkok flood and lockdown situation were quite similar to the current Covid-19 in terms of electricity demand. Therefore, the researcher can extend this methodology to analyze the impact on electricity due to Covid-19.
- Construction of four different scenarios based on similar characteristics of demand which leads to achieving the best prediction capability among the existing literature of the Thai dataset.
- The strategy for the selection of variables, determination of the training length of a dataset, hidden layers and nodes are also major contributions for the improvement of the accuracy are also major contributions of this study.

## 2. Methods

- Scenario 1: only demand for working days.
- Scenario 2: only demand for weekends.
- Scenario 3: only holiday demand and highly fluctuated demand from December 24 to New Years eve.
- Scenario 4: all the demand dataset.

#### 2.1. Model Design

#### 2.1.1. MLR Model Description

- OLS: where errors $\sum =\mathit{I}$
- GLS: for orbitrary covariance ∑
- GLSAR: where AR(p) $\sum =\sum \rho $

#### 2.1.2. OLS and GLSAR Estimation

#### 2.1.3. Performance Measurements

#### 2.2. Artificial Neural Network Approach

#### 2.2.1. Structure of ANNs

#### 2.2.2. Activation Function

#### 2.2.3. Resolving Overfitting

## 3. Results and Discussion

#### 3.1. Selection of Training Length

- Case I: Training period: 911 days, test period: 239 days in the year 2013.
- Case II: Training period: 717 days, test period: 239 days in the year 2013.
- Case III: Training period: 475 days, test period: 239 days in the year 2013.
- Case IV: Training period: 236 days, test period: 239 days in the year 2013.

#### 3.2. MLR Approach: Simple OLS Method

#### 3.2.1. Model Selection

#### 3.2.2. Temperature Effect

#### 3.2.3. Special Day and AR Effect

#### 3.3. ANN Approach: FF-ANN: A Simple DNN

#### 3.4. Computation Time

#### 3.5. Pro and Cons of the Methods

## 4. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## Abbreviations

AC | Air Condition |

AR | Auto-regression |

ARMAX | Auto-regressive Moving Average with Exogenous Variable |

CDD | Cooling Degree Day |

Covid-19 | Corona Virus Disease 2019 |

DW | Durbin–Watson |

EGAT | Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand |

FF-ANN | Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network |

GA | Genetic Algorithm |

GLSAR | Generalized Least Square Auto Regression |

HWT | Holt Winters Triple |

MAPE | Mean Absolute Percentage Error |

MEA | Metropolitan Electricity Authority |

MLR | Multiple linear regression |

MW | Megawatt |

OLS | Ordinary Least Square |

PSO | Particle Swarm Optimization |

STDF | Short-term Demand Forecasting |

RegSARIMA | Regression Seasonal ARIMA |

ReLU | Rectified Linear Unit |

SVM | Support Vector Machine |

## Appendix A. Data Pre-Processing

#### Appendix A.1. Monthly and Seasonal Pattern

**Figure A2.**(

**a**) Hourly demand profile with seasonality and trend. (

**b**) Monthly variation of demand. (

**c**) Monthly variation of demand: 2010–2013.

#### Appendix A.2. Weekly, Daily and Holiday Patterns

**Figure A3.**(

**a**) Intra-day variation of demand for working and special days. (

**b**) Intra-day variation of demand on the working day (next day of holiday).

**Figure A4.**(

**a**) Impact of long holiday on electricity demand. (

**b**) Impact of New Year on electricity demand. (

**c**) Impact of Sonkran festival on electricity demand (

**d**) Impact of massive Bangkok flood on electricity demand.

#### Appendix A.3. Temperature

**Figure A5.**(

**a**) Effect of temperature during peak hour. (

**b**) Effect of temperature at two different hours.

#### Appendix A.4. Variable Identification

Types | Variables | Description |
---|---|---|

Deterministic | WD | Week dummy [Mon <Tue ...<Sat<Sun] |

MD | Month dummy [Feb <Mar <...<Nov <Dec] | |

DayAfterHoliday | Binary 0 or 1 | |

DayAfterLongHoliday | Binary 0 or 1 | |

DayAfterSongkran | Binary 0 or 1 | |

DayAfterNewyear | Binary 0 or 1 | |

Temperature | Temp | Forecasted temperature |

MaxTemp | Maximum forecasted temperature | |

Square temperature | Square of the forecasted temperature | |

MA2pmTemp | Moving avearage of temperature at 2pm | |

Lagged | load1d_cut2pm | 1 day ahead untill 2pm and 2 day ahead after 2pm load |

load2d_cut2pm | 2 days ahead untill 2pm and 3 day ahead after 2pm load | |

load3d_cut2pmR | 3 days ahead untill 2pm and 4 days ahead after 2pm load | |

load4d_cut2pmR | 4 days ahead untill 2pm and 5 days ahead after 2pm load | |

Interaction | WD:Temp | Interaction of week day dummy to temperature |

MD:Temp | Interaction of month dummy to temperature | |

WD:load1d_cut2pm | Interaction of week day dummy to load1d_cut2pm | |

WD:load2d_cut2pm | Interaction of week day dummy to load2d_cut2pm |

## Appendix B. Figures and Tables

**Figure A11.**(

**a**) Forecasting during Sonkran festival (Scenario 4). (

**b**) Forecasting during last week of December (Scenario 4).

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**Table 1.**Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) measures for different training lengths using the Scenario 1 dataset.

Simple OLS | FF-ANN | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Training Length (Days) | Testing Days | MAPE (%) | Exe. Time (Sec) | MAPE (%) | Exe. Time (Sec) | |

Case I | 911 | 239 | 1.97 | 109.2 | 2.96 | 565.97 |

Case II | 717 | 239 | 2.33 | 87.38 | 3.41 | 516.46 |

Case III | 475 | 239 | 2.04 | 114.26 | 6.00 | 435.32 |

Case IV | 236 | 239 | 2.44 | 78.82 | 18.00 | 309.81 |

Model | Deterministics and Interaction | Temp | Temp Square | Holiday | Holiday 2 | MAPE (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

OLS-(Scenario 1) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 1.97 |

Yes | Yes | No | No | No | 2.00 | |

Yes | No | No | No | No | 3.04 | |

OLS-(Scenario 2) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 1.78 |

OLS-(Scenario 3) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 16.00 |

OLS-(Scenario 4) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 2.94 |

HH | Rsq | Adj-Rsq | DW | HH | Rsq | Adj-Rsq | DW | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

OLS | GLSAR-7 | OLS | GLSAR-7 | OLS | GLSAR-7 | OLS | GLSAR-7 | OLS | GLSAR-7 | OLS | GLSAR-7 | ||

0 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 24 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 0.86 | 0.59 | 1.73 | 1.99 |

1 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 1.86 | 2.01 | 25 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.88 | 0.66 | 1.79 | 1.99 |

2 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 26 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.65 | 1.77 | 1.98 |

3 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 27 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 0.86 | 0.61 | 1.74 | 1.98 |

4 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 28 | 0.85 | 0.62 | 0.85 | 0.60 | 1.78 | 1.97 |

5 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 1.87 | 2.00 | 29 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 0.86 | 0.61 | 1.67 | 1.98 |

6 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 30 | 0.87 | 0.64 | 0.87 | 0.61 | 1.64 | 1.98 |

7 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 1.86 | 2.01 | 31 | 0.87 | 0.64 | 0.87 | 0.61 | 1.59 | 1.98 |

8 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 1.87 | 2.01 | 32 | 0.86 | 0.64 | 0.86 | 0.60 | 1.57 | 1.98 |

9 | 0.96 | 0.36 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 1.88 | 2.00 | 33 | 0.86 | 0.61 | 0.86 | 0.58 | 1.51 | 1.98 |

10 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 1.88 | 2.01 | 34 | 0.85 | 0.59 | 0.85 | 0.57 | 1.44 | 1.99 |

11 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 1.84 | 1.99 | 35 | 0.84 | 0.56 | 0.84 | 0.53 | 1.40 | 1.99 |

12 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 1.78 | 2.00 | 36 | 0.80 | 0.52 | 0.80 | 0.49 | 1.38 | 2.00 |

13 | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.89 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 37 | 0.80 | 0.52 | 0.80 | 0.49 | 1.35 | 2.00 |

14 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 1.78 | 1.99 | 38 | 0.84 | 0.60 | 0.84 | 0.58 | 1.33 | 2.00 |

15 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 1.65 | 1.99 | 39 | 0.86 | 0.65 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 1.33 | 2.00 |

16 | 0.90 | 0.78 | 0.89 | 0.76 | 1.67 | 1.98 | 40 | 0.87 | 0.68 | 0.87 | 0.66 | 1.33 | 2.00 |

17 | 0.88 | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.71 | 1.69 | 1.99 | 41 | 0.88 | 0.72 | 0.88 | 0.70 | 1.17 | 1.99 |

18 | 0.87 | 0.69 | 0.86 | 0.67 | 1.73 | 1.99 | 42 | 0.90 | 0.74 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 1.43 | 1.99 |

19 | 0.86 | 0.65 | 0.85 | 0.63 | 1.74 | 2.00 | 43 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 0.91 | 0.75 | 1.45 | 1.99 |

20 | 0.86 | 0.64 | 0.85 | 0.61 | 1.71 | 2.00 | 44 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 0.91 | 0.76 | 1.45 | 2.00 |

21 | 0.85 | 0.61 | 0.84 | 0.59 | 1.69 | 2.00 | 45 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 1.48 | 2.00 |

22 | 0.84 | 0.59 | 0.83 | 0.56 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 46 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 0.92 | 0.78 | 1.46 | 1.99 |

23 | 0.84 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 1.74 | 1.99 | 47 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 1.46 | 2.00 |

Methods with AR(p) | MAPE(%) | Time Elapse (Sec) |
---|---|---|

OLS | 1.97 | 47.00 |

GLSAR-1 | 1.92 | 223.00 |

GLSAR-2 | 1.94 | 247.00 |

GLSAR-3 | 1.92 | 223.00 |

GLSAR-4 | 1.90 | 223.00 |

GLSAR-5 | 1.90 | 230.00 |

GLSAR-6 | 1.90 | 232.00 |

GLSAR-7 | 1.88 | 241.00 |

Nos of Hidden Layers | Nos of Neurons | MAPE (%) | Epochs |
---|---|---|---|

1 | $128\times 1$ | 2.85 | 8000 |

$64\times 1$ | 2.82 | 15,000 | |

$32\times 1$ | 2.92 | 22,000 | |

2 | $16\times 1$ | 2.78 | 45,000 |

$8\times 1$ | 3.18 | 55,000 | |

$4\times 1$ | 3.06 | 75,000 | |

$2\times 1$ | 38.79 | 100,000 | |

$128\times 128$ | 2.78 | 3000 | |

$128\times 64$ | 2.72 | 4000 | |

$\mathbf{64}\times \mathbf{64}$ | 2.72 | 2500 | |

3 | $64\times 64\times 64$ | 2.75 | 3000 |

4 | $64\times 64\times 64\times 64$ | 2.92 | 2500 |

Pre_Intervals | MAPE% | Exe Time (Sec.) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|

Simple OLS | FF-ANN | Simple OLS | FF-ANN | |

1 | 2.03 | 2.89 | 2.96 | 273 |

2 | 2.03 | 2.69 | 3.22 | 539 |

3 | 2.03 | 2.70 | 3.04 | 800 |

4 | 2.05 | 2.65 | 3.20 | 1062 |

5 | 2.05 | 2.56 | 3.40 | 1585 |

239 | 1.97 | NA | 33.4 | NA |

Simple OLS (MAPE%) | GLSAR (MAPE%) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Parameters | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 |

Mon | 1.99 | NaN | 19.21 | 4.37 | 2.10 | NaN | 18.47 | 4.70 |

Tue | 1.72 | NaN | 15.49 | 2.54 | 1.84 | NaN | 22.96 | 2.89 |

Wed | 1.96 | NaN | 12.49 | 2.44 | 1.99 | NaN | 25.85 | 2.96 |

Thu | 1.78 | NaN | 26.01 | 2.32 | 1.9 | NaN | 30.44 | 2.86 |

Fri | 1.59 | NaN | 11.28 | 2.18 | 1.55 | NaN | 23.97 | 2.87 |

Sat | NaN | 1.76 | NaN | 3.17 | NaN | 1.77 | NaN | 2.69 |

Sun | NaN | 1.77 | NaN | 3.62 | NaN | 1.69 | NaN | 2.54 |

Holiday | NaN | NaN | 14.73 | 9.62 | NaN | NaN | 21.00 | 10.22 |

Holiday 2 | NaN | NaN | 16.62 | 10.92 | NaN | NaN | 22.58 | 9.68 |

Songkran | NaN | NaN | 13.54 | 11.42 | NaN | NaN | 18.48 | 14.76 |

Newyear | NaN | NaN | 26.35 | 17.85 | NaN | NaN | 30.48 | 17.96 |

DayAfterHoliday | 5.13 | NaN | NaN | 5.22 | 4.97 | NaN | NaN | 7.06 |

DayAfterLongHoliday | 7.38 | NaN | NaN | 2.73 | 6.41 | NaN | NaN | 6.59 |

DayAfterSongkran | 3.10 | NaN | NaN | 2.03 | 1.82 | NaN | NaN | 6.09 |

DayAfterNewyear | 15.77 | NaN | NaN | 12.18 | 13.82 | NaN | NaN | 6.46 |

DayAfterLabor | 3.39 | NaN | NaN | 5.14 | 4.85 | NaN | NaN | 9.26 |

DayAfterReligion | 5.54 | NaN | NaN | 5.54 | 5.18 | NaN | NaN | 6.04 |

Overall MAPE | 1.81 | 1.77 | 16.63 | 2.95 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 22.59 | 3.08 |

© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

## Share and Cite

**MDPI and ACS Style**

Chapagain, K.; Kittipiyakul, S.; Kulthanavit, P.
Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting: Impact Analysis of Temperature for Thailand. *Energies* **2020**, *13*, 2498.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en13102498

**AMA Style**

Chapagain K, Kittipiyakul S, Kulthanavit P.
Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting: Impact Analysis of Temperature for Thailand. *Energies*. 2020; 13(10):2498.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en13102498

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Chapagain, Kamal, Somsak Kittipiyakul, and Pisut Kulthanavit.
2020. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting: Impact Analysis of Temperature for Thailand" *Energies* 13, no. 10: 2498.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en13102498