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Combining Weather Stations for Electric Load Forecasting

Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 28223 Charlotte, NC, USA
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Energies 2019, 12(8), 1510; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12081510
Received: 18 March 2019 / Revised: 8 April 2019 / Accepted: 12 April 2019 / Published: 21 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems)
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Abstract

Weather is a key factor affecting electricity demand. Many load forecasting models rely on weather variables. Weather stations provide point measurements of weather conditions in a service area. Since the load is spread geographically, a single weather station may not sufficiently explain the variations of the load over a vast area. Therefore, a proper combination of multiple weather stations plays a vital role in load forecasting. This paper answers the question: given a number of weather stations, how should they be combined for load forecasting? Simple averaging has been a commonly used and effective method in the literature. In this paper, we compared the performance of seven alternative methods with simple averaging as the benchmark using the data of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012. The results demonstrate that some of the methods outperform the benchmark in combining weather stations. In addition, averaging the forecasts from these methods outperforms most individual methods. View Full-Text
Keywords: weather station combination; electric load forecasting; hierarchical load forecasting weather station combination; electric load forecasting; hierarchical load forecasting
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Sobhani, M.; Campbell, A.; Sangamwar, S.; Li, C.; Hong, T. Combining Weather Stations for Electric Load Forecasting. Energies 2019, 12, 1510.

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