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Open AccessArticle

A Weekend Load Forecasting Model Based on Semi-Parametric Regression Analysis Considering Weather and Load Interaction

Guangxi Key Laboratory of Power System Optimization and Energy Technology, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China
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Energies 2019, 12(20), 3820; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12203820
Received: 19 September 2019 / Revised: 1 October 2019 / Accepted: 2 October 2019 / Published: 10 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Electrical Power and Energy System)
Compared to the load characteristics of normal working days, weekend load characteristics have a low level of load and are sensitive to meteorological conditions, which influences the accuracy of short-term weekend-load forecasting. To solve this problem and to improve the accuracy of short-term weekend-load forecasting, a Semi-parametric weekend-load forecasting method based on the interaction between meteorological and load is proposed in this paper. The main work is shown as follows: (1) through separating weekend-load from normal-load and analyzing the correlation between meteorological factors and daily maximum load, the meteorological factors with parameter characteristics and non-parameter characteristics can be screened out; (2) a short-term weekend-load forecasting model is built according to Semi-parametric regression theory which can express the coupling relation between meteorology and load more realistically; (3) the effect of temperature accumulation is also considered to correct the forecasting model. The proposed method is proved by implementing short-term weekend-load forecasting on the real historical data of the Southern Power Grid in China. The result shows that the 96-point mean load forecasting accuracy obtained by this model can meet the requirement of power network operation. View Full-Text
Keywords: weekend load forecasting; meteorological information; Semi-parametric regression theory; agglomeration effect weekend load forecasting; meteorological information; Semi-parametric regression theory; agglomeration effect
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Li, B.; Lu, M.; Zhang, Y.; Huang, J. A Weekend Load Forecasting Model Based on Semi-Parametric Regression Analysis Considering Weather and Load Interaction. Energies 2019, 12, 3820.

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