Economic-Engineering Modelling of the Buildings Sector to Study the Transition towards Deep Decarbonisation in the EU
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Approach
2.1. Rationale
2.2. The Mathematical Framework
2.3. The Dataset
- Types of buildings: single or multi-storey buildings.
- Age of construction: nine age bands covering the period 1920–2015. Historical data on the housing regarding demolition, new constructions and renovation draw on [9].
- Geographical regions: three stylised areas, namely urban, semi-urban and rural areas.
- Income classes: five income classes based on Eurostat statistics.
- Trade
- Commercial buildings
- Warehouses
- Cold Storage
- Market Services
- Private offices and other buildings in market services
- Hotels and restaurants
- Non-Market Services
- Public offices
- Hospitals and health institutions
- Schools and educational buildings
3. Illustrative Model Applications
- The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (Directive (EU) 2018/844), which entered into force on 9 July 2018 [76], and according to which new buildings are assumed to be nearly zero-energy buildings as of 2020.
- The amended Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) [77].
- The revised Renewable Energy Directive [78].
- The Energy-Efficiency scenario involves policies that deliver very ambitious energy savings in the buildings sector and at the same time, projects further electrification of heat. The scenario does not include the development of carbon-neutral hydrogen and hydrocarbons.
- The Hydrogen and E-fuels scenario focuses on the supply-side of the energy system and assumes the development of climate-neutral fuels that can replace natural gas in distribution systems. The scenario assumes that ambitious energy savings take place to avoid the excessive increase in the volume of electricity needed to produce hydrogen and e-fuels. However, energy efficiency ambition is lower than in the previous scenario.
- The Combined scenario assumes a more ambitious emissions reduction target for 2050 compared to the previous two scenarios, aiming at carbon-neutrality by 2050. To this end, the scenario assumes development of very ambitious energy savings together with carbon-neutral hydrogen and e-fuels.
4. Concluding Remarks
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Use | Type of Fuel | Technology |
Space Heating | Diesel Oil | Conventional Boiler |
Condensing Boiler | ||
Natural Gas | Conventional Boiler | |
Condensing Boiler | ||
Micro-Cogeneration (CHP) Internal combustion engine | ||
Micro-CHP CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) | ||
Micro-CHP Fuel Cell | ||
Gas Heat Pump (air to water) | ||
Autonomous Gas heater | ||
Biomass | Wood Pellets Boiler | |
Electricity | Air-Source Heat Pump (air to water) | |
Water Source Heat pumps (water to water/air) | ||
Ground-Source Heat Pump (brine to water/air) | ||
Electrical space heater | ||
Solar | Thermal Solar | |
Steam | Distributed Heat | |
Geothermal | Geothermal Ponds | |
Solids | Stove for solid fuels | |
LPG | Autonomous LPG heater | |
Stove for liquid fuels | ||
Space Cooling | Electricity | Air-Source Heat Pump (air to water) |
Water Source Heat pumps (water to water/air) | ||
Ground-Source Heat Pump (brine to water/air) | ||
Split system air condition | ||
Centralized cooling systems | ||
Natural Gas | Gas Heat Pump (air) | |
Absorption Chiller | ||
Adsorption Chiller | ||
Steam | District Cooling |
Use | Type of Fuel | Technology |
Water Heating | Diesel Oil | Conventional Boiler |
Condensing Boiler | ||
Natural Gas | Conventional Boiler | |
Condensing Boiler | ||
Micro-CHP Internal combustion engine | ||
Micro-CHP CCGT | ||
Micro-CHP Fuel Cell | ||
Gas Heat Pump (air to water) | ||
Autonomous Gas heater | ||
Biomass | Wood Pellets Boiler | |
Electricity | Air-Source Heat Pump (air to water) | |
Water Source Heat pumps (water to water/air) | ||
Ground-Source Heat Pump (brine to water/air) | ||
Heat Pump Water Heater | ||
Simple electrical water heater | ||
Solar | Thermal Solar | |
Steam | Distributed Heat | |
Geothermal | Geothermal Ponds | |
Solids | Stove for solid fuels | |
LPG | Autonomous LPG heater | |
Cooking | Natural Gas | Gas Cookers |
Biomass | Solid/Biomass Cookers | |
Electricity | Electric Cookers | |
LPG | Liquid Cookers |
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Nomenclature | |
---|---|
Sets | |
Time (years) within a time horizon | |
Building categories | |
Discrete set of dynamic renovation strategies | |
Discrete set of dynamic equipment strategies | |
Parameters | |
Macroeconomic factors | |
Net annual cost (operating and capital costs, inclusive of investment for building insulation) for the useful energy demand | |
Log-linear function for the steady-state relationship between the useful energy and the explanatory factors | |
Upper bound of the logistic curve for useful energy demand | |
Scale parameter of the logistic curve for useful energy demand | |
Slope parameter of logistic curve for useful energy demand | |
Exogenous rate of demolition of the buildings stock | |
Annual growth rate of macroeconomic and demographic factors | |
Pace at which dynamically tends to an optimal buildings stock | |
Exogenous rhythm of transfer of population from building category to | |
Maximum growth limit of transfer of population from to | |
Discount rate reflecting the subjective cost of equity and the cost of debt | |
Technology maturity factors | |
Variables | |
Econometrically estimated useful energy demand for the specific end-uses | |
Stock of building | |
Annual growth rate of buildings stock | |
Annual growth rate of new buildings | |
Transfer of population from to | |
Annual growth rate of transfer of population from to | |
Investment expenditures for renovation (i.e., investment costs, hidden costs and/or subsidies) | |
Annual costs of renovation (i.e., variable fuel and non-fuel costs) | |
Present value of cost streams to compare alternative renovation strategies | |
Frequency of choice of equipment strategies per building category | |
Investment expenditures for energy using equipment (i.e., investment costs, hidden costs and/or subsidies) | |
Annual costs of energy using equipment (i.e., variable fuel and non-fuel costs, and fixed operation and maintenance costs) | |
Present value of cost streams to compare alternative dynamic strategies of energy using equipment | |
Frequency of choice of equipment strategies per building category |
Baseline Scenario, EU | 2015 | 2030 | 2050 |
---|---|---|---|
Residential sector | |||
Average renovation rate per year (%) | 0.84% | 2.04% | 1.00% |
Energy deepness of renovation (%) | 12% | 66% | 34% |
Final energy consumption (Mtoe) | 300 | 224 | 192 |
of which solid and liquid fossil fuels | 48 | 6 | 1 |
of which natural gas | 113 | 82 | 55 |
of which renewables | 43 | 32 | 20 |
of which district heating | 24 | 17 | 12 |
of which electricity | 72 | 87 | 105 |
Share of electricity in total consumption (%) | 24% | 39% | 55% |
Annual rate of energy savings (%) | - | 1.9% | 0.8% |
Direct CO2 emissions (MtCO2) | 423 | 214 | 130 |
Annual rate of change of direct CO2 emissions | - | −3.7% | −2.5% |
Services sector | |||
Average renovation rate per year (%) | 0.46% | 1.98% | 0.62% |
Average energy savings per year, due to renovation (%) | 16% | 60% | 23% |
Final energy consumption (Mtoe) | 161 | 127 | 133 |
of which solid and liquid fossil fuels | 20 | 2 | 0 |
of which natural gas | 52 | 32 | 17 |
of which renewables | 5 | 4 | 3 |
of which district heating | 11 | 8 | 7 |
of which electricity | 73 | 81 | 105 |
Share of electricity in total consumption (%) | 45% | 64% | 79% |
Annual rate of energy savings (%) | - | 1.6% | −0.2% |
Direct CO2 emissions (MtCO2) | 184 | 82 | 40 |
Annual rate of change of direct CO2 emissions | - | −5.2% | −3.5% |
Year 2050 | Energy Efficiency Scenario | Hydrogen and E-Fuels Scenario | Combined Scenario |
---|---|---|---|
Residential sector | |||
Average renovation rate per year (%) | 1.77% | 1.21% | 1.59% |
Energy deepness of renovation (%) | 55% | 42% | 52% |
Final energy consumption (Mtoe) | 137 | 183 | 142 |
of which solid and liquid fossil fuels | 0 | 0 | 0 |
of which natural gas | 30 | 57 | 29 |
of which renewables | 13 | 18 | 14 |
of which district heating | 9 | 11 | 8 |
of which electricity | 84 | 97 | 90 |
Share of electricity in total consumption (%) | 61% | 53% | 63% |
Energy savings from Baseline (%) | 28% | 5% | 26% |
Direct CO2 emissions (MtCO2) | 60 | 45 | 12 |
Change of direct CO2emissions from Baseline | −54% | −65% | −91% |
Services sector | |||
Average renovation rate per year (%) | 1.35% | 0.92% | 1.18% |
Average energy savings per year, due to renovation (%) | 48% | 37% | 45% |
Final energy consumption (Mtoe) | 89 | 123 | 96 |
of which solid and liquid fossil fuels | 0 | 0 | 0 |
of which natural gas | 12 | 17 | 11 |
of which renewables | 2 | 3 | 3 |
of which district heating | 5 | 7 | 6 |
of which electricity | 69 | 97 | 76 |
Share of electricity in total consumption (%) | 78% | 78% | 79% |
Energy savings from Baseline (%) | 33% | 7% | 28% |
Direct CO2 emissions (MtCO2) | 23 | 13 | 4 |
Change of direct CO2emissions from Baseline | −42% | −68% | −90% |
Baseline Scenario, EU | 2011–2020 | 2021–2030 | 2031–2050 |
---|---|---|---|
Residential sector | |||
Investment expenditure (Bn €) | 1161 | 1989 | 3988 |
For the building shell | 201 | 479 | 641 |
For equipment and appliances | 960 | 1510 | 3346 |
Annuity capital payment (annual, on average, Bn €) | 204 | 347 | 461 |
For the building shell | 10 | 53 | 101 |
For equipment and appliances | 194 | 294 | 360 |
Cost of purchasing energy products (annual, on average, Bn €) | 362 | 398 | 349 |
Total cost of energy services (annual, on average, Bn €) | 566 | 745 | 811 |
% change of operating expenditures (OPEX), from 2011–2020 | - | 10% | −4% |
% change of capital expenditures (CAPEX), from 2011–2020 | - | 71% | 72% |
Services sector | |||
Investment expenditure (Bn €) | 384 | 607 | 1042 |
For the building shell | 81 | 163 | 214 |
For equipment and appliances | 303 | 444 | 828 |
Annuity capital payment (annual, on average, Bn €) | 41 | 91 | 127 |
For the building shell | 5 | 19 | 38 |
For equipment and appliances | 36 | 73 | 89 |
Cost of purchasing energy products (annual, on average, Bn €) | 188 | 213 | 216 |
Total cost of energy services (annual, on average, Bn €) | 229 | 305 | 344 |
% change of OPEX, from 2011–2020 | - | 14% | 15% |
% change of CAPEX, from 2011–2020 | - | 58% | 36% |
Average or Cumulative Values, in the Period 2031–2050 for the EU | Energy Efficiency Scenario | Hydrogen and E-Fuels Scenario | Combined Scenario |
---|---|---|---|
Residential sector | |||
Investment Expenditures (Bn €) | 4703 | 3955 | 4520 |
For the Building shell | 1045 | 692 | 890 |
For Equipment and Appliances | 3658 | 3263 | 3629 |
Annuity capital payment (annual, on average, Bn €) | 497 | 458 | 480 |
For the Building shell | 118 | 103 | 111 |
For Equipment and Appliances | 378 | 355 | 370 |
Cost of purchasing energy products (annual, on average, Bn €) | 323 | 389 | 421 |
Total cost of energy services (annual, on average, Bn €) | 820 | 846 | 902 |
% change of OPEX, from the Baseline, in 2031–2050 | −7% | 11% | 21% |
% change of CAPEX, from the Baseline, in 2031–2050 | 18% | −1% | 13% |
Services sector | |||
Investment Expenditures (Bn €) | 1227 | 1064 | 1226 |
For the Building shell | 337 | 240 | 309 |
For Equipment and Appliances | 890 | 824 | 917 |
Annuity capital payment (annual, on average, Bn €) | 135 | 128 | 135 |
For the Building shell | 43 | 39 | 43 |
For Equipment and Appliances | 92 | 89 | 92 |
Cost of purchasing energy products (annual, on average, Bn €) | 210 | 242 | 250 |
Total cost of energy services (annual, on average, Bn €) | 345 | 369 | 385 |
% change of OPEX, from the Baseline, in 2031–2050 | −3% | 12% | 15% |
% change of CAPEX, from the Baseline, in 2031–2050 | 18% | 2% | 18% |
Calculated Using Cumulative Figures in the Period 2031–2050, in the EU | Energy Efficiency Scenario | Hydrogen and E-fuels Scenario | Combined Scenario |
---|---|---|---|
Residential sector | |||
% contribution of Energy intensity to Emissions reduction from Baseline | 73% | 4% | 21% |
% contribution of Carbon intensity to Emissions reduction from Baseline | 27% | 96% | 79% |
% change of cumulative energy consumption from the Baseline | −12% | −1% | −11% |
% change of cumulative CO2 emissions from the Baseline | −16% | −28% | −42% |
% change of cumulative total energy costs from the Baseline | 1% | 4% | 11% |
Services sector | |||
% contribution of Energy intensity to Emissions reduction from Baseline | 89% | 7% | 27% |
% contribution of Carbon intensity to Emissions reduction from Baseline | 11% | 93% | 73% |
% change of cumulative energy consumption from the Baseline | −11% | −2% | −13% |
% change of cumulative CO2 emissions from the Baseline | −12% | −28% | −41% |
% change of cumulative total energy costs from the Baseline | 0% | 7% | 12% |
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Fotiou, T.; de Vita, A.; Capros, P. Economic-Engineering Modelling of the Buildings Sector to Study the Transition towards Deep Decarbonisation in the EU. Energies 2019, 12, 2745. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12142745
Fotiou T, de Vita A, Capros P. Economic-Engineering Modelling of the Buildings Sector to Study the Transition towards Deep Decarbonisation in the EU. Energies. 2019; 12(14):2745. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12142745
Chicago/Turabian StyleFotiou, Theofano, Alessia de Vita, and Pantelis Capros. 2019. "Economic-Engineering Modelling of the Buildings Sector to Study the Transition towards Deep Decarbonisation in the EU" Energies 12, no. 14: 2745. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12142745