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Energies 2018, 11(6), 1460; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11061460

Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence

1
Institute for Renewable Energy, European Academy of Bozen/Bolzano (EURAC Research), Viale Druso 1, 39100 Bolzano, Italy
2
Economic and Social Research Institute, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin Dublin 2, Ireland
3
Trinity College Dublin, the University of Dublin, Dublin Dublin 2, Ireland
4
Joule Assets Europe Group SRL, Via Cesare Battisti 56, 41121 Modena, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 13 April 2018 / Revised: 1 June 2018 / Accepted: 3 June 2018 / Published: 5 June 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices 2018)
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Abstract

The scope of the present investigation is to provide a description of final electricity prices development in the context of deregulated electricity markets in EU28, up to 2020. We introduce a new methodology to predict long-term electricity market prices consisting of two parts: (1) a self-developed form of Porter’s five forces analysis (PFFA) determining that electricity markets are characterized by a fairly steady price increase. Dominant driving factors come out to be: (i) uncertainty of future electricity prices; (ii) regulatory complexity; and (iii) generation overcapacities. Similar conclusions derive from (2) a self-developed form of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this case, we find that the electricity market particularly depends on (i) market liberalization and (ii) the European Union (EU)’s economy growth. The applied methodologies provide a novel contribution in forecasting electricity price trends, by analyzing the sentiments, expectations, and knowledge of industry experts, through an assessment of factors influencing the market price and goals of key market participants. An extensive survey was conducted, interviewing experts all over Europe showed that the electricity market is subject to a future slight price increase. View Full-Text
Keywords: electricity market price; Europe; forecast; long term; Porter’s five forces analysis; multiple-criteria decision analysis electricity market price; Europe; forecast; long term; Porter’s five forces analysis; multiple-criteria decision analysis
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Pezzutto, S.; Grilli, G.; Zambotti, S.; Dunjic, S. Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence. Energies 2018, 11, 1460.

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