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Open AccessArticle

Probabilistic Steady-State Operation and Interaction Analysis of Integrated Electricity, Gas and Heating Systems

State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Shapingba District, Chongqing 400044, China
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Energies 2018, 11(4), 917; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11040917
Received: 12 March 2018 / Revised: 2 April 2018 / Accepted: 5 April 2018 / Published: 12 April 2018
(This article belongs to the Collection Smart Grid)
The existing studies on probabilistic steady-state analysis of integrated energy systems (IES) are limited to integrated electricity and gas networks or integrated electricity and heating networks. This paper proposes a probabilistic steady-state analysis of integrated electricity, gas and heating networks (EGH-IES). Four typical operation modes of an EGH-IES are presented at first. The probabilistic energy flow problem of the EGS-IES considering its operation modes and correlated uncertainties in wind/solar power and electricity/gas/heat loads is then formulated and solved by the Monte Carlo method based on Latin hypercube sampling and Nataf transformation. Numerical simulations are conducted on a sample EGH-IES working in the “electricity/gas following heat” mode to verify the probabilistic analysis proposed in this paper and to study the effects of uncertainties and correlations on the operation of the EGH-IES, especially uncertainty transmissions among the subnetworks. View Full-Text
Keywords: integrated energy system; probabilistic energy flow analysis; interaction; correlation; Monte Carlo simulation; Nataf transformation integrated energy system; probabilistic energy flow analysis; interaction; correlation; Monte Carlo simulation; Nataf transformation
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Yang, L.; Zhao, X.; Li, X.; Yan, W. Probabilistic Steady-State Operation and Interaction Analysis of Integrated Electricity, Gas and Heating Systems. Energies 2018, 11, 917.

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