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Open AccessArticle

Short-Term Forecasting of Total Energy Consumption for India-A Black Box Based Approach

1
Institute for Energy Studies, Anna University, Chennai 600025, India
2
Department of Education, Gandhigram Rural Institute, Dindigul 624302, India
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2018, 11(12), 3442; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11123442
Received: 31 October 2018 / Revised: 29 November 2018 / Accepted: 29 November 2018 / Published: 9 December 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
Continual energy availability is one of the prime inputs requisite for the persistent growth of any country. This becomes even more important for a country like India, which is one of the rapidly developing economies. Therefore electrical energy’s short-term demand forecasting is an essential step in the process of energy planning. The intent of this article is to predict the Total Electricity Consumption (TEC) in industry, agriculture, domestic, commercial, traction railways and other sectors of India for 2030. The methodology includes the familiar black-box approaches for forecasting namely multiple linear regression (MLR), simple regression model (SRM) along with correlation, exponential smoothing, Holt’s, Brown’s and expert model with the input variables population, GDP and GDP per capita using the software used are IBM SPSS Statistics 20 and Microsoft Excel 1997–2003 Worksheet. The input factors namely GDP, population and GDP per capita were taken into consideration. Analyses were also carried out to find the important variables influencing the energy consumption pattern. Several models such as Brown’s model, Holt’s model, Expert model and damped trend model were analysed. The TEC for the years 2019, 2024 and 2030 were forecasted to be 1,162,453 MW, 1,442,410 MW and 1,778,358 MW respectively. When compared with Population, GDP per capita, it is concluded that GDP foresees TEC better. The forecasting of total electricity consumption for the year 2030–2031 for India is found to be 1834349 MW. Therefore energy planning of a country relies heavily upon precise proper demand forecasting. Precise forecasting is one of the major challenges to manage in the energy sector of any nation. Moreover forecasts are important for the effective formulation of energy laws and policies in order to conserve the natural resources, protect the ecosystem, promote the nation’s economy and protect the health and safety of the society. View Full-Text
Keywords: India; TEC; short-term; forecasting; black box India; TEC; short-term; forecasting; black box
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Rahman, H.; Selvarasan, I.; Begum A, J. Short-Term Forecasting of Total Energy Consumption for India-A Black Box Based Approach. Energies 2018, 11, 3442.

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