Influence of the ENSO and Monsoonal Season on Long-Term Wind Energy Potential in Malaysia
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Method and Materials
2.1. Data Description
2.2. Wavelet Coherence
2.3. Vertical Extrapolation
2.4. Energy Production
2.5. Accuracy Metrics
2.5.1. The Coefficient of Determination
2.5.2. The Root Mean Square Error
2.5.3. Mean Absolute Error
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. The Variability of CFSRE and MMD Data
3.2. The Wind Speed Prediction
3.3. Long Term Wind Energy Potential
4. Conclusions and Recommendation
- The influences of ENSO on the wind speed pattern of selected sites were assessed using the DMAD method during the Southwest monsoon (SWM) and Northeast monsoon (NEM). During the NEM season, both CFSRE and MMD for all sites show an increment in wind speed from their median levels, while a decrement occurred during the SWM season.
- The wavelet coherency analysis is useful to study the interaction and the relative phase between two time series. The relationships between wind speed and MEI time series data showed the strongest correlation at around the 32–64 months period band for CFSRE-MEI and above 31 months for MMD-MEI coherency.
- Long-term wind energy production was determined by averaging the 35 years (MCP-CFSRE) and 10 years (MCP-MMD) of computed capacity factor (CF). The averaged CF during the NEM was higher compared to the SWM for Kijal and Mersing. In Kijal the average CF is 10.66% during the NEM and 5.19% during the SWM, while the average CF in Mersing during NEM and SWM are 21.32% and 3.71% respectively. However, the result is different for Kudat where the monthly CF is almost the same for both the SWM and NEM season. The average CF at Kudat during the SWM (36.42%) is slightly higher compared to the NEM (24.61%).
- The ENSO (MEI index) has an influence on the variability of wind speed (CFSRE and MMD) in Malaysia, which also directly affects the projected energy production.
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
CFSRE | Extended Climate Forecast System Reanalysis |
DMAD | Dimensionless Median Absolute Deviation |
ENSO | El Niño Southern Oscillation |
MEI | Multivariate ENSO Index |
MMD | Malaysia Meteorological Department |
NEM | Northeast Monsoon |
SWM | Southwest Monsoon |
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Data | Information | Kudat | Mersing | Kijal |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wind mast data | Coordinates | 7°1′45.33″ N 116°44′47.98″ E | 2°34′50.00″ N 103°48′23.60″ E | 4°20′50.70″ N 103°28′34.74″ E |
Height | 10 m, 70 m | 10 m, 60 m | 10 m, 60 m | |
Power law index (PLI) | 0.38 | 0.20 | 0.25 | |
Period | May 2014–April 2015 (12 Months) 52,560 data Recovery: 99% | January 2014–December 2014 (12 Months) 52,560 data Recovery: 99% | May 2013–April 2014 (12 Months) 52,560 data Recovery: 99% | |
MMD data | Coordinates | 6°55′12.00″ N 116°49′48.00″ E | 2°27′0.00″ N 103°49′48.00″ E | 5°22′48.00″ N 103°5′60.00″ E |
Height | 10 m | 10 m | 10 m | |
Period | 1 January 2006–December 2016 | 1 January 2006–December 2016 | 1 January 2006–December 2016 | |
CFSRE data | Coordinates | 7°0′0.00″ N 117°0′0.00″ E | 2°30′0.00″ N 103°59′60.00″ E | 4°0′0.00″ N 103°29′60.00″ E |
Height | 10 m | 10 m | 10 m | |
Period | 1 January 1983–31 December 2017 | 1 January 1983–31 December 2017 | 1 January 1983–31 December 2017 |
Site | Metrics | CFSRE | MMD | MCP-MMD | MCP-CFSRE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kudat | r | 0.4532 | 0.2538 | 0.1879 | 0.4174 |
MAE | 1.0518 | 1.1389 | 1.1664 | 1.0899 | |
RMSE | 2.0815 | 1.8510 | 2.0767 | 1.6676 | |
Mersing | r | 0.4610 | 0.3861 | 0.3788 | 0.4303 |
MAE | 1.2748 | 1.3233 | 1.3232 | 1.2886 | |
RMSE | 1.9503 | 1.7871 | 1.9046 | 1.8219 | |
Kijal | r | 0.5481 | 0.5161 | 0.4445 | 0.4599 |
MAE | 1.0019 | 1.0410 | 1.0788 | 1.0729 | |
RMSE | 1.8376 | 1.3759 | 1.6182 | 1.5275 |
Site | Data | Signal | Mean | Weibull Mean | Weibull Scale, c | Weibull Shape, k |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kudat | CFSRE Concurrent | Mean wind speed, m/s | 3.76 | 3.81 | 4.30 | 2.12 |
Wind direction, Degrees | 106.20 | - | - | - | ||
MMD Concurrent | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.52 | 2.72 | 3.07 | 2.07 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 156.8 | - | - | - | ||
Mast | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.82 | 2.85 | 3.21 | 1.84 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 171.10 | - | - | - | ||
MCP-CFSRE Concurrent | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.77 | 2.85 | 3.22 | 2.05 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 175.20 | - | - | - | ||
MCP-MMD Concurrent | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.93 | 3.03 | 3.43 | 1.99 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 198.00 | - | - | - | ||
Mersing | CFSRE | Mean wind speed, m/s | 3.36 | 3.41 | 3.84 | 2.38 |
Wind direction, Degrees | 111.40 | - | - | - | ||
MMD | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.83 | 2.97 | 3.36 | 2.28 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 268.40 | - | - | - | ||
Mast | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.43 | 2.59 | 2.90 | 1.67 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 164.40 | - | - | - | ||
MCP-CFSRE | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.45 | 2.60 | 2.92 | 1.75 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 133.30 | - | - | - | ||
MCP-MMD | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.49 | 2.63 | 2.96 | 1.78 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 174.40 | - | - | - | ||
Kijal | CFSRE | Mean wind speed, m/s | 3.36 | 3.40 | 3.83 | 2.19 |
Wind direction, Degrees | 22.8 | - | - | - | ||
MMD | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.09 | 2.34 | 2.65 | 2.14 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 149.9 | - | - | - | ||
Mast | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.31 | 2.47 | 2.77 | 1.76 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 20.2 | - | - | - | ||
MCP-CFSRE | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.26 | 2.37 | 2.67 | 1.82 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 330.00 | - | - | - | ||
MCP-MMD | Mean wind speed, m/s | 2.34 | 2.44 | 2.74 | 1.71 | |
Wind direction, Degrees | 329.6 | - | - | - |
Data | Composition | Kudat | Mersing | Kijal |
---|---|---|---|---|
MCP-CFSRE (35-years) | Average CF (%); NEM + SWM | 30.56 | 11.49 | 7.24 |
Average CF (%); NEM only | 24.61 | 21.32 | 10.66 | |
Average CF (%); SWM only | 36.42 | 3.71 | 5.19 | |
MCP-MMD (10 years) | Average CF (%); NEM + SWM | 30.25 | 11.75 | 11.93 |
Average CF (%); NEM only | 23.57 | 18.14 | 16.20 | |
Average CF (%); SWM only | 35.79 | 7.92 | 8.73 |
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Albani, A.; Ibrahim, M.Z.; Yong, K.H. Influence of the ENSO and Monsoonal Season on Long-Term Wind Energy Potential in Malaysia. Energies 2018, 11, 2965. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11112965
Albani A, Ibrahim MZ, Yong KH. Influence of the ENSO and Monsoonal Season on Long-Term Wind Energy Potential in Malaysia. Energies. 2018; 11(11):2965. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11112965
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlbani, Aliashim, Mohd Zamri Ibrahim, and Kim Hwang Yong. 2018. "Influence of the ENSO and Monsoonal Season on Long-Term Wind Energy Potential in Malaysia" Energies 11, no. 11: 2965. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11112965