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Winds of Change: How Up-To-Date Forecasting Methods Could Help Change Brazilian Wind Energy Policy and Save Billions of US$

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Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering—Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil
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Faculty of Engineering, Environment and Computing, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
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PPMMC-CEFETMG Av. Amazonas 7675, 30510-000 Belo Horizonte, Brazil
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PPGEE-UFMG Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Energies 2018, 11(11), 2952; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11112952
Received: 23 September 2018 / Revised: 16 October 2018 / Accepted: 22 October 2018 / Published: 29 October 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Economics and Policy)
This paper proposes a revaluation of the Brazilian wind energy policy framework and the energy auction requirements. The proposed model deals with the four major issues associated with the wind policy framework that are: long-term wind speed sampling, wind speed forecasting reliability, energy commercialization, and the wind farm profitability. Brazilian wind policy, cross-checked against other countries policies, showed to be too restrictive and outdated. This paper proposes its renewal, through the adoption of international standards by Brazilian policy-makers, reducing the wind time sampling necessary to implement wind farms. To support such a policy change, a new wind forecasting method is designed. The method is based on fuzzy time series shaped with a statistical significance approach. It can be used to forecast wind behavior, by drawing the most-likely wind energy generation intervals given a confidence degree. The proposed method is useful to evaluate a wind farm profitability and design the biding strategy in auctions. View Full-Text
Keywords: energy policy-framework; wind energy; renewable energy; energy auctions; forecasting; electricity market; fuzzy time series energy policy-framework; wind energy; renewable energy; energy auctions; forecasting; electricity market; fuzzy time series
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Bernardes, F.G., Jr.; Vieira, D.A.G.; Palade, V.; Saldanha, R.R. Winds of Change: How Up-To-Date Forecasting Methods Could Help Change Brazilian Wind Energy Policy and Save Billions of US$. Energies 2018, 11, 2952.

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