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Energies 2018, 11(10), 2714; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11102714

Outlier Events of Solar Forecasts for Regional Power Grid in Japan Using JMA Mesoscale Model

1
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Ibaraki 3058568, Japan
2
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan
3
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Ibaraki 3058505, Japan
4
Research and Information Center, Tokai University, Tokyo 1510063, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 7 September 2018 / Revised: 29 September 2018 / Accepted: 9 October 2018 / Published: 11 October 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Solar and Wind Energy Forecasting)
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Abstract

To realize the safety control of electric power systems under high penetration of photovoltaic power systems, accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts using numerical weather prediction models (NWP) are becoming increasingly important. The objective of this study is to understand meteorological characteristics pertaining to large errors (i.e., outlier events) of GHI day-ahead forecasts obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency, for nine electric power areas during four years from 2014 to 2017. Under outlier events in GHI day-ahead forecasts, several sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns were found in 80 events during the four years; (a) a western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean (frequency per 80 outlier events; 48.8%), (b) stationary fronts (20.0%), (c) a synoptic-scale cyclone (18.8%), and (d) typhoons (tropical cyclones) (8.8%) around the Japanese islands. In this study, the four case studies of the worst outlier events were performed. A remarkable SLP pattern was the case of the western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean around Japan. The comparison between regionally integrated GHI day-ahead forecast errors and cloudiness forecasts suggests that the issue of accuracy of cloud forecasts in high- and mid-levels troposphere in NWPs will remain in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: photovoltaic (PV) power generation; global horizontal irradiance (GHI), numerical weather prediction (NWP), outlier events; day-ahead forecast; regional integration photovoltaic (PV) power generation; global horizontal irradiance (GHI), numerical weather prediction (NWP), outlier events; day-ahead forecast; regional integration
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Ohtake, H.; Uno, F.; Oozeki, T.; Yamada, Y.; Takenaka, H.; Nakajima, T.Y. Outlier Events of Solar Forecasts for Regional Power Grid in Japan Using JMA Mesoscale Model. Energies 2018, 11, 2714.

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