The Effect of a Bonus Cap on Compensation Structure in the Banking Sector
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review and Hypothesis Development
2.1. Literature Review
2.2. Hypothesis Development
- (i)
- The variable component of compensation decreases following the introduction of a bonus cap
- (ii)
- The fixed component of compensation increases following the introduction of a bonus cap
- (iii)
- The effect on profits is theoretically ambiguous following the introduction of a bonus cap
3. Methodology
3.1. Institutional Framework
3.2. Data Collection
3.3. Graphical Evidence: Common Trend Assumption
3.4. Estimation Strategy
4. Results
Sensitivity Analysis
5. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Theoretical Model
- (i)
- The variable component of compensation decreases following the introduction of a bonus cap
- (ii)
- The fixed component of compensation increases following the introduction of a bonus cap
- (iii)
- The effect on profits is theoretically ambiguous following the introduction of a bonus cap
Appendix A.1. Derivation: Optimal Outcome Without Bonus Cap
Appendix A.2. Derivation: Optimal Outcome with a Bonus Cap
Appendix A.3. Derivation: Comparison Bonus Cap and No Bonus Cap
Appendix B. Full Regression Output
Appendix B.1. Total Hourly Wage
| Estimate | Std.Error | Estimate | Std.Error | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 3.69 | 0.01 | *** | 4.47 | 0.06 | *** |
| Year 2011 | −0.18 | 0.01 | *** | −0.12 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2012 | −0.16 | 0.01 | *** | −0.10 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2013 | −0.08 | 0.01 | *** | −0.03 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2014 | −0.11 | 0.01 | *** | −0.06 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2015 | −0.07 | 0.01 | *** | −0.04 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2016 | −0.06 | 0.00 | *** | −0.05 | 0.00 | *** |
| Year 2017 | −0.03 | 0.00 | *** | −0.02 | 0.00 | *** |
| Year 2018 | 0.02 | 0.00 | *** | 0.02 | 0.00 | *** |
| treated group | 0.65 | 0.01 | *** | 0.52 | 0.01 | *** |
| 0.07 | 0.01 | *** | 0.08 | 0.01 | *** | |
| fulltime | 0.16 | 0.01 | *** | |||
| Male | 0.12 | 0.01 | *** | |||
| Age category 2 | −1.98 | 0.07 | *** | |||
| Age category 3 | −1.31 | 0.06 | *** | |||
| Age category 4 | −0.97 | 0.06 | *** | |||
| Age category 5 | −0.89 | 0.06 | *** | |||
| Age category 6 | −0.91 | 0.06 | *** | |||
| Age category 7 | −1.01 | 0.08 | *** | |||
| Adj. | 30.10% | 36.8% | ||||
| Number of observations | 8505 | 8505 | ||||
Appendix B.2. Fixed Hourly Wage
| Estimate | Std.Error | Estimate | Std.Error | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 3.54 | 0.01 | *** | 4.57 | 0.07 | *** |
| Year 2011 | −0.25 | 0.01 | *** | −0.18 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2012 | −0.21 | 0.01 | *** | −0.15 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2013 | −0.19 | 0.01 | *** | −0.13 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2014 | −0.15 | 0.01 | *** | −0.09 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2015 | −0.16 | 0.01 | *** | −0.12 | 0.01 | *** |
| Year 2016 | −0.12 | 0.00 | *** | −0.10 | 0.00 | *** |
| Year 2017 | −0.10 | 0.00 | *** | −0.08 | 0.00 | *** |
| Year 2018 | −0.03 | 0.00 | *** | −0.02 | 0.00 | *** |
| treated group | 0.57 | 0.01 | *** | 0.44 | 0.01 | *** |
| 0.11 | 0.01 | *** | 0.12 | 0.01 | *** | |
| fulltime | 0.14 | 0.01 | *** | |||
| Male | 0.09 | 0.01 | *** | |||
| Age category 2 | −2.12 | 0.08 | *** | |||
| Age category 3 | −1.57 | 0.07 | *** | |||
| Age category 4 | −1.21 | 0.07 | *** | |||
| Age category 5 | −1.11 | 0.07 | *** | |||
| Age category 6 | −1.12 | 0.07 | *** | |||
| Age category 7 | −1.19 | 0.09 | *** | |||
| Adj. | 30.9% | 38.4% | ||||
| Number of observations | 8505 | 8505 | ||||
Appendix B.3. Variable Hourly Wage
| Estimate | Std.Error | Estimate | Std.Error | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 1.56 | 0.02 | *** | −0.97 | 0.12 | *** |
| Year 2011 | 0.40 | 0.02 | *** | 0.42 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2012 | 0.37 | 0.02 | *** | 0.39 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2013 | 0.57 | 0.02 | *** | 0.59 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2014 | 0.37 | 0.02 | *** | 0.39 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2015 | 0.58 | 0.02 | *** | 0.60 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2016 | 0.58 | 0.02 | *** | 0.58 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2017 | 0.60 | 0.02 | *** | 0.60 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2018 | 0.52 | 0.02 | *** | 0.52 | 0.02 | *** |
| treated group | 0.81 | 0.02 | *** | 0.68 | 0.02 | *** |
| −0.25 | 0.02 | *** | −0.23 | 0.02 | *** | |
| fulltime | 0.27 | 0.02 | *** | |||
| Male | 0.15 | 0.01 | *** | |||
| Age category 2 | 1.01 | 0.14 | *** | |||
| Age category 3 | 1.98 | 0.12 | *** | |||
| Age category 4 | 2.29 | 0.12 | *** | |||
| Age category 5 | 2.30 | 0.12 | *** | |||
| Age category 6 | 2.21 | 0.12 | *** | |||
| Age category 7 | 1.80 | 0.16 | *** | |||
| Adj. | 14.50% | 17.7% | ||||
| Number of observations | 8505 | 8505 | ||||
Appendix C. Sensitivity Check
Appendix C.1. Employed Since 2011

| Total Wage | Fixed Wage Component | Variable Wage Component | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | Std.Error | Estimate | Std.Error | Estimate | Std.Error | ||||
| Intercept | 3.47 | 0.05 | *** | 3.38 | 0.04 | *** | 0.95 | 0.11 | *** |
| Year 2011 | −0.12 | 0.01 | *** | −0.19 | 0.01 | *** | 0.50 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2012 | −0.11 | 0.01 | *** | −0.16 | 0.01 | *** | 0.50 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2013 | −0.03 | 0.01 | *** | −0.14 | 0.01 | *** | 0.72 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2014 | −0.07 | 0.01 | *** | −0.11 | 0.01 | *** | 0.52 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2015 | −0.02 | 0.01 | *** | −0.12 | 0.01 | *** | 0.76 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2016 | −0.04 | 0.01 | *** | −0.11 | 0.01 | *** | 0.70 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2017 | −0.01 | 0.00 | *** | −0.09 | 0.00 | *** | 0.72 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2018 | 0.03 | 0.00 | *** | −0.02 | 0.00 | *** | 0.61 | 0.02 | *** |
| treated group | 0.51 | 0.02 | *** | 0.43 | 0.02 | *** | 0.64 | 0.02 | *** |
| 0.06 | 0.01 | *** | 0.10 | 0.01 | *** | −0.23 | 0.02 | *** | |
| fulltime | 0.16 | 0.02 | *** | 0.15 | 0.02 | *** | 0.22 | 0.02 | *** |
| Male | 0.10 | 0.01 | *** | 0.08 | 0.01 | *** | 0.14 | 0.01 | *** |
| Age category 2 | −0.91 | 0.08 | *** | −0.91 | 0.06 | *** | −0.59 | 0.17 | *** |
| Age category 3 | −0.23 | 0.05 | *** | −0.32 | 0.04 | *** | 0.18 | 0.11 | |
| Age category 4 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.38 | 0.10 | *** | ||
| Age category 5 | 0.12 | 0.05 | *** | 0.10 | 0.04 | ** | 0.37 | 0.10 | *** |
| Age category 6 | 0.11 | 0.05 | ** | 0.09 | 0.04 | ** | 0.29 | 0.10 | *** |
| Age category 7 | 3.47 | 0.05 | *** | 3.38 | 0.04 | *** | 0.95 | 0.11 | *** |
| Adj. | 26.6% | 29.10% | 14.5% | ||||||
| Number of observations | 6607 | 6607 | 6607 | ||||||
Appendix C.2. Control Group: Top 50% of Non-Wbfo Banks

| Total Wage | Fixed Wage Component | Variable Wage Component | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | Std.Error | Estimate | Std.Error | Estimate | Std.Error | ||||
| Intercept | 4.78 | 0.06 | *** | 4.86 | 0.07 | *** | −0.68 | 0.13 | *** |
| Year 2011 | −0.16 | 0.01 | *** | −0.22 | 0.01 | *** | 0.44 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2012 | −0.14 | 0.01 | *** | −0.19 | 0.01 | *** | 0.42 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2013 | −0.06 | 0.01 | *** | −0.17 | 0.01 | *** | 0.64 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2014 | −0.10 | 0.01 | *** | −0.13 | 0.01 | *** | 0.43 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2015 | −0.02 | 0.01 | *** | −0.12 | 0.01 | *** | 0.69 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2016 | −0.04 | 0.01 | *** | −0.10 | 0.00 | *** | 0.64 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2017 | −0.02 | 0.00 | *** | −0.09 | 0.00 | *** | 0.67 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2018 | 0.03 | 0.00 | *** | −0.02 | 0.00 | *** | 0.57 | 0.02 | *** |
| treated group | 0.28 | 0.01 | *** | 0.23 | 0.01 | *** | 0.40 | 0.02 | *** |
| 0.04 | 0.01 | *** | 0.08 | 0.01 | *** | −0.25 | 0.02 | *** | |
| fulltime | 0.13 | 0.01 | *** | 0.11 | 0.02 | *** | 0.26 | 0.02 | *** |
| Male | 0.08 | 0.01 | *** | 0.06 | 0.01 | *** | 0.12 | 0.01 | *** |
| Age category 2 | −2.07 | 0.14 | *** | −2.17 | 0.15 | *** | 0.78 | 0.19 | *** |
| Age category 3 | −1.19 | 0.06 | *** | −1.49 | 0.07 | *** | 2.14 | 0.13 | *** |
| Age category 4 | −0.95 | 0.06 | *** | −1.19 | 0.07 | *** | 2.28 | 0.13 | *** |
| Age category 5 | −0.87 | 0.06 | *** | −1.09 | 0.07 | *** | 2.28 | 0.13 | *** |
| Age category 6 | −0.90 | 0.06 | *** | −1.10 | 0.07 | *** | 2.18 | 0.13 | *** |
| Age category 7 | −0.99 | 0.08 | *** | −1.17 | 0.09 | *** | 1.77 | 0.17 | *** |
| Adj. | 14.50% | 18.80% | 9.60% | ||||||
| Number of observations | 7645 | 7645 | 7645 | ||||||
Appendix C.3. Control Group: Top 10% of Dutch Pension and Investment Funds

| Total Wage | Fixed Wage Component | Variable Wage Component | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | Std.Error | Estimate | Std.Error | Estimate | Std.Error | ||||
| Intercept | 4.48 | 0.06 | *** | 4.58 | 0.07 | *** | −1.14 | 0.13 | *** |
| Year 2011 | −0.19 | 0.01 | *** | −0.23 | 0.01 | *** | 0.44 | 0.03 | *** |
| Year 2012 | −0.17 | 0.01 | *** | −0.20 | 0.01 | *** | 0.43 | 0.03 | *** |
| Year 2013 | −0.10 | 0.01 | *** | −0.19 | 0.01 | *** | 0.60 | 0.03 | *** |
| Year 2014 | −0.13 | 0.01 | *** | −0.15 | 0.01 | *** | 0.38 | 0.03 | *** |
| Year 2015 | −0.03 | 0.01 | *** | −0.13 | 0.01 | *** | 0.70 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2016 | −0.04 | 0.01 | *** | −0.11 | 0.01 | *** | 0.65 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2017 | −0.02 | 0.00 | *** | −0.09 | 0.00 | *** | 0.70 | 0.02 | *** |
| Year 2018 | 0.03 | 0.00 | *** | −0.02 | 0.00 | *** | 0.59 | 0.02 | *** |
| treated group | 0.59 | 0.02 | *** | 0.51 | 0.02 | *** | 0.85 | 0.03 | *** |
| 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.01 | *** | −0.31 | 0.02 | *** | ||
| fulltime | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 | *** | ||
| Male | 0.16 | 0.01 | *** | 0.15 | 0.02 | *** | 0.26 | 0.02 | *** |
| Age category 2 | 0.10 | 0.01 | *** | 0.07 | 0.01 | *** | 0.13 | 0.01 | *** |
| Age category 3 | −1.79 | 0.09 | *** | −1.97 | 0.10 | *** | 1.17 | 0.19 | *** |
| Age category 4 | −1.26 | 0.06 | *** | −1.57 | 0.08 | *** | 2.11 | 0.13 | *** |
| Age category 5 | −0.98 | 0.06 | *** | −1.22 | 0.07 | *** | 2.29 | 0.13 | *** |
| Age category 6 | −0.90 | 0.06 | *** | −1.12 | 0.07 | *** | 2.28 | 0.13 | *** |
| Age category 7 | −0.91 | 0.06 | *** | −1.13 | 0.07 | *** | 2.19 | 0.13 | *** |
| Adj. | 29.9% | 32.3% | 17.1% | ||||||
| Number of observations | 7572 | 7572 | 7572 | ||||||
| 1 | Other European banks are capped by the CRD IV directive. The European Commission introduced the CRD IV directive in 2013. This directive capped variable compensation at 100 percent of fixed annual salary. |
| 2 | This paper does not analyze the effect of a bonus cap on bank-performance and risk taking as adequate data for such analysis are not available to the authors. |
| 3 | This paper is an extended version of the conference paper ‘The Effect of a Bonus Cap on Compensation Structure in the Banking Sector’, presented at the RSEP International Conference on Economics, Finance and Business in Lisbon, January 2026 (Rutten & Witteman, 2026). |
| 4 | |
| 5 | More precisely, they find a decrease in effective risk taking when compared to other firms, but not when compared to other banks in Europe and the US. |
| 6 | In Europe there was a cap on the variable pay, while in the United Kingdom the bonus pay was capped and mandatory linked to long term performance goals. |
| 7 | In addition, differences in board behavior may contribute to these divergent findings. Boards aligned with shareholder interests may resist strategies that reduce risk-taking when such strategies conflict with shareholders’ preferences (Kolm et al., 2017). This limits the effectiveness of compensation regulation. |
| 8 | In addition, extreme welcome bonuses are limited by the financial market regulators. Financial market regulators are authorized to classify welcome bonuses as extreme without any political intervention. |
| 9 | The sample is restricted to the period 2011–2019 for two reasons. First, data availability allows wages to be consistently decomposed into fixed and variable components from 2011 onwards, providing a clean pre-treatment window to assess parallel trends. Second, the period 2015–2019 captures the medium-term adjustment of compensation structures following the reform. The sample ends in 2019 to avoid confounding effects from the COVID-19 period. |
| 10 | Those six categories are (i) less than 12 h, (ii) 12 up to 20 h, (iii) 20 up to 25 h, (iv) 25–30 h, and (v) 30 up to 35 h, and (vi) more than 35 h. |
| 11 | The sensitivity check restricts the selection of employees in the control group. The results do not change in terms of sign or significance. |
| 12 | More formally a regression is estimated using the natural logarithm of one plus the variable wage component, as this component is equal to zero for some individuals in certain years. |
| 13 | Not weighting the observations does not lead to substantial different outcomes in terms of size or sign. |
| 14 | It is not possible to do this for the top 10% of the income distribution due to a lack of observations. The control group would become too small for regression analysis. |
| 15 | Assuming convex effort costs is standard in principal–agent models. Holmström (1979) and Grossman and Hart (1983) show that convex disutility of effort ensures interior solutions and well-behaved incentive contracts. Empirical evidence is consistent with this assumption. Paarsch and Shearer (2000) and Shaerer (2004) find that models with convex effort costs provide a good fit to observed behavior under performance-based compensation schemes. |
| 16 | An alternative interpretation of the incentive compatibility constraint (ICC) is to view it as a mechanism that disciplines shirking. In this framework, the contract must provide sufficient incentives to induce effort rather than opportunistic behavior. See Blinder and Choi (1990), Hall (1993), Agell and Lundborg (1995) and Bewley (1995). |
| 17 | Formally, it is possible to express the share of the profit as a function of exogenous parameters. This is not pursued here, as it does not contribute to illustrating the main difference between the situation with and without a bonus cap. |
| 18 | To see this, total salary equals . The first order condition with respect to is positive. |
| 19 | , which is by definition larger than zero. |
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| (1) | (2) | (3) |
|---|---|---|
| 20% Bonus Cap (With Statutory Seat in The Netherlands) | No 20% Bonus Cap (With Statutory Seat in Other EU Country) | No Bonus Cap (With Statutory Seat in The Netherlands) |
| Banks | Banks | Investment funds |
| Insurance companies | Insurance companies | Pension funds |
| Control | Treatment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Variable/Group | Prior | After | Prior | After |
| Total hourly wage (in euros) | 41.91 | 45.64 | 73.19 | 86.61 |
| Fixed hourly wage component (in euros) | 31.86 | 35.77 | 53.28 | 67.70 |
| Variable hourly wage component (in euros) | 10.05 | 9.87 | 19.91 | 18.92 |
| Control variables | ||||
| % male | 61.3% | 60.2% | 81.6% | 81.1% |
| % full time | 81.3% | 80.0% | 93.7% | 94.0% |
| Age (in years) | 42.1 | 44.7 | 46.3 | 49.7 |
| birth year | 1971 | 1972 | 1966 | 1967 |
| Number of observations | 4615 | 6825 | 25,367 | 25,587 |
| Number of individuals | 1501 | 1721 | 6643 | 6784 |
| Total Hourly Wage | Hourly Fixed Wage | Hourly Variable Wage | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| 0.07 *** (0.01) | 0.08 *** (0.01) | 0.11 *** (0.01) | 0.12 *** (0.01) | −0.25 *** (0.02) | −0.23 *** (0.02) | |
| Year dummies | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Group dummy | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Controls | NO | YES | NO | YES | NO | YES |
| Adj. | 30.1% | 36.8% | 30.9% | 38.4% | 14.5% | 17.7% |
| Number of observations | 8505 | 8505 | 8505 | 8505 | 8505 | 8505 |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity Check/Outcome Variable | Total Hourly Wage | Hourly Fixed Wage | Hourly Variable Wage |
| Attrition check | 0.06 *** (0.01) | 0.11 *** (0.01) | −0.23 *** (0.02) |
| Different control group 1 | 0.04 *** (0.01) | 0.08 *** (0.01) | −0.25 *** (0.02) |
| Different control group 2 | 0.00 (0.01) | 0.06*** (0.01) | −0.31 *** (0.02) |
| Year dummies | YES | YES | YES |
| Group dummies | YES | YES | YES |
| Controls | YES | YES | YES |
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Rutten, A.; Witteman, J. The Effect of a Bonus Cap on Compensation Structure in the Banking Sector. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19, 307. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050307
Rutten A, Witteman J. The Effect of a Bonus Cap on Compensation Structure in the Banking Sector. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2026; 19(5):307. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050307
Chicago/Turabian StyleRutten, Albert, and Joost Witteman. 2026. "The Effect of a Bonus Cap on Compensation Structure in the Banking Sector" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 19, no. 5: 307. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050307
APA StyleRutten, A., & Witteman, J. (2026). The Effect of a Bonus Cap on Compensation Structure in the Banking Sector. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 19(5), 307. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050307

