Exploring New Aspects of Corporate Dividend Policy: Case of an Emerging Nation
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Review of the Literature
3. Theoretical Arguments and Study Hypotheses
3.1. FSIZE
3.2. PROF
3.3. EVOL
3.4. GROW
3.5. LEV
3.6. FCF
3.7. CSH
3.8. PMH
3.9. LFC
4. Methodological Framework
4.1. Sample and Study Period
4.2. Empirical Model and Measurements of Variables
5. Empirical Results
6. Robustness Check
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Theory Name | Theoretical Argument | References |
---|---|---|
Dividend irrelevance proposition | A firm’s dividend policy fails to influence its market value, assuming that there exists perfect competition, and no corporate tax is present. This theory is based on impractical assumptions of the actual market conditions. | (Miller & Modigliani, 1961) |
Life cycle theory | In the initial growth stages, firms offer lower dividend payouts due to a lack of capital market access, abundant resources, and strong market presence. However, towards its maturity, firms overcome such issues and reward good returns to the shareholders. | (DeAngelo et al., 2006; Fama & French, 2001; Mueller, 1972) |
Agency theory | The dividend is considered an effective tool for reducing Type I agency issues (between the principal and its agent) and Type II agency problems (between the minority and majority shareholders). Therefore, firms facing agency issues are expected to pay higher dividends. | (Ding et al., 2021; Jensen, 1986; Jensen & Meckling, 1976; Rozeff, 1982) |
Signalling theory | When a firm offers healthy returns to shareholders, it helps disseminate positive market signals to the shareholders. On the other hand, if the firm fails to maintain regular dividends or reduces the dividend amounts, it sends a negative signal about the firm’s financial state. | (Bhattacharya, 1979, 1980; John & Williams, 1985; Miller & Rock, 1985) |
Transaction cost theory | Firms have to incur some additional costs while raising funds, especially from external sources. Therefore, firms may reduce their dividend payouts if they have limited access to the capital market and transaction costs become difficult to bear without doing so. | (Al-Najjar & Hussainey, 2009; Budagaga, 2020; Holder et al., 1998) |
Residual theory | Generally, the firms prioritize meeting their short and long-term investments and liabilities when funds are generated in the business. Only after fulfilling these needs, are the residual amounts distributed as dividends among the shareholders. Based on this, it is expected that firms which generate greater revenues and have greater residual finances can afford to provide higher dividend amounts. | (Almeida et al., 2015; Budagaga, 2020) |
Variables | Abbreviations | Measurement of Dummy Variables |
---|---|---|
Dependent variables: | ||
Increase in Dividend Payout | Div_Inc | Dummy variable equals 1 if the current year’s payout ratio is more than last year’s payout ratio, and 0 otherwise |
Decrease in Dividend Payout | Div_Dec | Dummy variable equals 1 if the current year’s payout ratio is less than last year’s payout ratio, and 0 otherwise |
Independent variables: | ||
Size | FSIZE | Natural logarithm of total assets |
Profitability | PROF | EBIT/total assets |
Earnings Volatility | EVOL | Moving standard deviation of past 3 years’ profitability ratio |
Growth | GROW | Market value of assets/book value of assets |
Leverage | LEV | Total debt/total assets |
Free Cash Flow | FCF | Free cash flow/total assets |
Cash Holdings | CSH | Cash and cash equivalents/total assets |
Promoter Holding | PMH | Proportion of equity held by promoters |
Life Cycle | LFC | Retained earnings/common equity |
Variables | Mean | Median | SD | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
FSIZE | 6.697 | 6.621 | 2.296 | 0.916 | 12.369 |
PROF | 0.059 | 0.063 | 0.126 | −0.573 | 0.471 |
EVOL | 0.041 | 0.021 | 0.057 | 0.001 | 0.288 |
GROW | 1.569 | 1.053 | 1.686 | 0.237 | 12.190 |
LEV | 0.352 | 0.247 | 0.535 | 0.000 | 3.982 |
FCF | 0.036 | 0.034 | 0.177 | −0.667 | 0.773 |
CSH | 0.045 | 0.016 | 0.081 | −0.006 | 0.500 |
PMH | 0.515 | 0.535 | 0.192 | 0.009 | 0.899 |
LFC | 8.724 | 2.174 | 18.604 | −13.122 | 114.458 |
Variables | FSIZE | PROF | EVOL | GROW | LEV | FCF | CSH | PMH | LFSC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FSIZE | 1 | ||||||||
PROF | 0.261 * | 1 | |||||||
EVOL | −0.267 * | −0.171 * | 1 | ||||||
GROW | −0.072 * | 0.018 * | 0.225 * | 1 | |||||
LEV | −0.135 * | −0.251 * | 0.264 * | 0.259 * | 1 | ||||
FCF | 0.072 * | 0.326 * | 0.040 * | 0.006 | −0.009 ** | 1 | |||
CSH | −0.106 * | 0.067 * | 0.100 * | 0.139 * | −0.034 * | −0.051 * | 1 | ||
PMH | 0.222 * | 0.153 * | −0.078 * | 0.011 ** | −0.042 * | 0.040 * | 0.023 * | 1 | |
LFC | 0.489 * | 0.226 * | −0.143 * | 0.070 * | −0.185 * | 0.054 * | 0.012 * | 0.125 * | 1 |
- (Authors’ calculations).Note: * = significant at 1% level, ** = significant at 5% level.
Dividend Dimensions | Groups | FSIZE | PROF | EVOL | GROW | LEV | FCF | CSH | PMH | LFC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend Increase | NO | 6.413 | 0.047 | 0.044 | 1.572 | 0.378 | 0.034 | 0.043 | 0.502 | 6.417 |
YES | 8.233 | 0.116 | 0.029 | 1.632 | 0.231 | 0.050 | 0.052 | 0.568 | 19.658 | |
Mean Diff. | −1.820 | −0.070 | 0.016 | −0.060 | 0.147 | −0.016 | −0.008 | −0.065 | −13.241 | |
t-test | (−73.37) * | (−49.96) * | (23.66) * | (−2.89) * | (24.23) * | (−8.20) * | (−8.87) * | (−29.01) * | (−64.59) * | |
Dividend Decrease | NO | 6.450 | 0.047 | 0.044 | 1.577 | 0.370 | 0.033 | 0.044 | 0.506 | 6.885 |
YES | 7.867 | 0.108 | 0.031 | 1.613 | 0.279 | 0.050 | 0.049 | 0.551 | 16.305 | |
Mean Diff. | −1.417 | −0.061 | 0.014 | −0.037 | 0.091 | −0.016 | −0.005 | −0.045 | −9.420 | |
t-test | (−59.13) * | (−46.27) * | (22.05) * | (−1.83) *** | (15.72) * | (−8.61) * | (−5.86) * | (−20.83) * | (−47.51) * |
- (Authors’ calculations).Note: * = significant at 1% level, *** = significant at 10% level.
Variables | Div_Inc | Div_Dec |
---|---|---|
Constant | −4.77 (−33.64) * | −4.75 (−36.64) * |
FSIZE | 0.34 (23.31) * | 0.27 (21.37) * |
PROF | 4.69 (19.89) * | 4.70 (21.94) * |
EVOL | −3.98 (−8.03) * | −4.07 (−9.00) * |
GROW | −0.04 (−3.06) * | −0.01 (−0.48) |
LEV | −1.43 (−13.71) * | −0.25 (−3.43) * |
FCF | −0.71 (−5.87) * | −0.28 (−2.57) ** |
CSH | 0.23 (0.94) | 0.07 (0.31) |
PMH | 1.52 (12.16) * | 0.73 (6.42) * |
LFC | 0.01 (11.72) * | 0.01 (6.35) * |
Wald Chi2 (1) | 2457.41 * | 2160.88 * |
Wald Chi2 (2) | 462.08 * | 575.36 * |
LR Chi2 | 874.69 * | 946.83 * |
Rho | 0.19 | 0.17 |
- (Authors’ calculations).Note: * = significant at 1% level, ** = significant at 5% level.
Variables | Measurement of Dependent Variables |
---|---|
Dividend Increase | Dummy variable equals 1 if the current year’s payout ratio is increased by at least 2% from last year’s payout ratio, and 0 otherwise |
Dividend Decrease | Dummy variable equals 1 if the current year’s payout ratio is decreased at least by 2% from last year’s payout ratio, and 0 otherwise |
Variables | Div_Inc | Div_Dec |
---|---|---|
Constant | −4.37 (−31.66) * | −4.20 (−33.86) * |
FSIZE | 0.29 (20.78) * | 0.21 (17.74) * |
PROF | 3.22 (14.08) * | 3.09 (15.24) * |
EVOL | −1.85 (−3.91) * | −1.71 (−4.06) * |
GROW | −0.04 (−2.57) * | −0.01 (−0.63) |
LEV | −1.38 (−13.24) * | −0.25 (−3.58) * |
FCF | −0.53 (−4.26) * | −0.12 (−1.04) |
CSH | −0.20 (−0.80) | −0.28 (−1.19) |
PMH | 1.39 (11.20) * | 0.60 (5.46) * |
LFC | 0.01 (8.76) * | 0.01 (4.20) * |
Wald Chi2 (1) | 1785.54 * | 1378.52 * |
Wald Chi2 (2) | 371.26 * | 416.14 * |
LR Chi2 | 684.83 * | 574.34 * |
Rho | 0.17 | 0.13 |
- (Authors’ calculations).Note: * = significant at 1% level.
Variables | Div_Inc | Div_Dec | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
BGFs | SAFs | BGFs | SAFs | |
Constant | −2.97 (−13.44) * | −6.12 (−29.32) * | −3.36 (−15.70) * | −5.73 (−31.25) * |
FSIZE | 0.22 (11.08) * | 0.47 (19.70) * | 0.16 (8.94) * | 0.39 (18.91) * |
PROF | 3.61 (10.27) * | 5.46 (17.14) * | 5.40 (15.65) * | 4.13 (15.21) * |
EVOL | −5.22 (−6.94) * | −3.24 (−4.89) * | −7.65 (−9.96) * | −1.90 (−3.41) * |
GROW | −0.08 (−3.71) * | −0.01 (−0.5) | −0.05 (−2.67) * | 0.03 (1.67) *** |
LEV | −1.43 (−9.69) * | −1.64 (−10.99) * | −0.50 (−4.10) * | −0.16 (−1.81) *** |
FCF | −0.73 (−3.99) * | −0.65 (−4.04) * | −0.34 (−1.92) ** | −0.25 (−1.76) *** |
CSH | −0.10 (−0.26) | 0.55 (1.64) | −0.14 (−0.39) | 0.26 (0.82) |
PMH | 0.69 (3.80) * | 1.96 (11.38) * | 0.20 (1.18) | 0.94 (6.21) * |
LFC | 0.01 (10.22) * | 0.01 (5.70) * | 0.01 (6.21) * | 0.001 (2.65) ** |
Wald Chi2 (1) | 858.92 * | 1528.56 * | 833.36 * | 1253.83 * |
Wald Chi2 (2) | 181.77 * | 321.22 * | 234.78 * | 360.05 * |
LR Chi2 | 239.12 * | 568.67 * | 238.61 * | 668.30 * |
Rho | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.2 |
- (Authors’ calculations).Note: * = significant at 1% level, ** = significant at 5% level, *** = significant at 10% level.
Variables | Div_Inc | Div_Dec | Div_Inc | Div_Dec | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BGF | SAF | BGF | SAF | |||
Constant | −4.25 (−17.27) * | −4.61 (−19.93) * | −2.23 (−5.83) * | −5.79 (−17.37) * | −3.32 (−8.65) * | −5.70 (−18.72) * |
FSIZE | 0.34 (22.42) * | 0.28 (21.18) * | 0.22 (10.98) * | 0.47 (19.06) * | 0.18 (9.71) * | 0.40 (18.64) * |
PROF | 4.40 (18.65) * | 4.55 (21.13) * | 3.33 (9.45) * | 5.15 (16.19) * | 5.26 (15.11) * | 4.00 (14.68) * |
EVOL | −3.86 (−7.78) * | −3.83 (−8.47) * | −5.31 (−7.01) * | −3.07 (−4.63) * | −7.42 (−9.62) * | −1.70 (−3.06) * |
GROW | −0.04 (−2.60) * | 0.00 (−0.24) | −0.07 (−3.27) * | 0.00 (−0.21) | −0.06 (−2.78) * | 0.03 (1.86) *** |
LEV | −1.59 (−14.62) * | −0.29 (−3.88) * | −1.57 (−10.38) * | −1.79 (−11.53) * | −0.62 (−4.83) * | −0.17 (−1.87) *** |
FCF | −0.70 (−5.82) * | −0.29 (−2.64) * | −0.73 (−4.00) * | −0.64 (−3.97) * | −0.35 (−2.02) ** | −0.26 (−1.81) *** |
CSH | 0.34 (1.37) | 0.17 (0.73) | 0.06 (0.16) | 0.61 (1.82) *** | 0.07 (0.20) | 0.29 (0.92) |
PMH | 1.39 (11.09) * | 0.68 (5.91) * | 0.61 (3.46) * | 1.83 (10.49) * | 0.23 (1.31) | 0.89 (5.80) * |
LFC | 0.01 (10.64) * | 0.01 (5.25) * | 0.01 (9.84) * | 0.01 (5.13) * | 0.0068 (5.57) * | 0.00 (1.97) ** |
Wald Chi2 (1) | 2599.74 * | 2306.57 * | 997.48 * | 1609.08 * | 955.43 * | 1339.43 * |
Wald Chi2 (2) | 451.20 * | 567.08 * | 183.42 * | 314.45 * | 239.90 * | 355.07 * |
LR Chi2 | 721.20 * | 810.84 * | 140.68 * | 463.71 * | 153.13 * | 589.37 * |
Rho | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
- (Authors’ calculations).Note: * = significant at 1% level, ** = significant at 5% level, *** = significant at 10% level.
Variables | Div_Inc | Div_Dec | Div_Inc (BGF) | Div_Inc (SAF) | Div_Dec (BGF) | Div_Dec (SAF) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Constant | −4.19 (−16.59) * | −5.28 (−19.71) * | −2.09 (−5.31) * | −5.70 (−16.44) * | −3.56 (−8.47) * | −6.79 (−18.54) * |
L.FSIZE | 0.29 (18.69) * | 0.34 (21.03) * | 0.20 (9.38) * | 0.39 (15.35) * | 0.22 (10.34) * | 0.48 (17.90) * |
L.PROF | 8.94 (32.87) * | 4.48 (17.12) * | 8.92 (21.51) * | 8.77 (24.31) * | 2.96 (7.61) * | 5.48 (15.44) * |
L.EVOL | −5.23 (−9.29) * | −9.31 (−15.47) * | −6.82 (−7.88) * | −4.20 (−5.65) * | −10.30 (−11.31) * | −8.88 (−10.91) * |
L.GROW | −0.08 (−4.92) * | −0.03 (−1.66) *** | −0.16 (−6.70) * | −0.01 (−0.51) | −0.03 (−1.38) | −0.01 (−0.37) |
L.LEV | −1.36 (−11.93) * | −1.05 (−9.57) * | −1.47 (−9.14) * | −1.36 (−8.61) * | −1.31 (−8.41) * | −1.02 (−6.62) * |
L.FCF | −0.76 (−5.97) * | −0.63 (−4.97) * | −0.79 (−4.05) * | −0.71 (−4.19) * | −0.68 (−3.55) * | −0.55 (−3.28) * |
L.CSH | 0.25 (0.97) | 0.19 (0.72) | 0.11 (0.29) | 0.44 (1.25) | −0.51 (−1.33) | 0.82 (2.34) ** |
L.PMH | 1.21 (9.13) * | 1.32 (9.87) * | 0.46 (2.47) ** | 1.64 (8.93) * | 0.47 (2.46) ** | 1.77 (9.59) * |
L.LFC | 0.01 (11.65) * | 0.00 (1.84) *** | 0.01 (9.83) * | 0.01 (6.36) * | 0.01 (3.83) * | 0.00 (−1.22) |
Wald Chi2 (1) | 2847.71 * | 2201.59 * | 1177.20 * | 1666.84 * | 837.46 * | 1379.27 * |
Wald Chi2 (2) | 321.01 * | 718.19 * | 122.61 * | 236.75 * | 333.84 * | 430.05 * |
LR Chi2 | 603.60 * | 841.39 * | 111.39 * | 395.99 * | 174.35 * | 584.78 * |
Rho | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
- (Authors’ calculations).Note: * = significant at 1% level, ** = significant at 5% level, *** = significant at 10% level.
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Ghose, B.; Tyagi, P.K.; Sharma, P.; Gogoi, N.; Singh, P.K.; Ngima, Y.; Vasudevan, A.; Gope, K. Exploring New Aspects of Corporate Dividend Policy: Case of an Emerging Nation. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18, 232. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18050232
Ghose B, Tyagi PK, Sharma P, Gogoi N, Singh PK, Ngima Y, Vasudevan A, Gope K. Exploring New Aspects of Corporate Dividend Policy: Case of an Emerging Nation. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2025; 18(5):232. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18050232
Chicago/Turabian StyleGhose, Biswajit, Pankaj Kumar Tyagi, Parikshit Sharma, Nivaj Gogoi, Premendra Kumar Singh, Yeshi Ngima, Asokan Vasudevan, and Kiran Gope. 2025. "Exploring New Aspects of Corporate Dividend Policy: Case of an Emerging Nation" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 18, no. 5: 232. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18050232
APA StyleGhose, B., Tyagi, P. K., Sharma, P., Gogoi, N., Singh, P. K., Ngima, Y., Vasudevan, A., & Gope, K. (2025). Exploring New Aspects of Corporate Dividend Policy: Case of an Emerging Nation. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(5), 232. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18050232