Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Design and Data Source
2.2. Study Measures
2.2.1. Cancer Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality
2.2.2. Cancer Survival
2.2.3. Cancer Management Costs to the Health System
2.3. Data Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Projected Cancer Incidence
3.2. Projected Cancer Prevalence
3.3. Projected Cancer Mortality
3.4. Historical Trends in Cancer Survival
3.5. Projected Cancer Management Costs to the Health System
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Total | Males | Females | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 2030 | Δ% | 2040 | Δ% | 2020 | 2030 | Δ% | 2040 | Δ% | 2020 | 2030 | Δ% | 2040 | Δ% | |
All | 21,615 | 27,929 | 29.2 | 33,773 | 56.2 | 10,919 | 13,853 | 26.9 | 16,846 | 54.3 | 10,696 | 14,076 | 31.6 | 16,927 | 58.3 |
Breast 1 | 3278 | 4513 | 37.7 | 5533 | 68.8 | NA | - | - | - | - | 3278 | 4513 | 37.7 | 5533 | 68.8 |
Lung | 2608 | 3259 | 25.0 | 3627 | 39.1 | 1265 | 1610 | 27.3 | 1920 | 51.8 | 1343 | 1649 | 22.8 | 1707 | 27.1 |
Prostate | 2526 | 2752 | 8.9 | 3300 | 30.6 | 2526 | 2752 | 8.9 | 3300 | 30.6 | NA | - | - | - | - |
Colorectal | 2167 | 2463 | 13.7 | 2866 | 32.3 | 1214 | 1321 | 8.8 | 1506 | 24.1 | 953 | 1142 | 19.8 | 1360 | 42.7 |
Bladder | 1083 | 1471 | 35.8 | 1760 | 62.5 | 850 | 1179 | 38.7 | 1419 | 66.9 | 233 | 292 | 25.3 | 341 | 46.4 |
Melanoma | 902 | 1329 | 47.3 | 1692 | 87.6 | 487 | 780 | 60.2 | 1056 | 116.8 | 415 | 549 | 32.3 | 636 | 53.3 |
Lymphoma | 957 | 1254 | 31.0 | 1458 | 52.4 | 537 | 716 | 33.3 | 832 | 54.9 | 420 | 538 | 28.1 | 626 | 49.0 |
Kidney | 783 | 1158 | 47.9 | 1445 | 84.5 | 522 | 802 | 53.6 | 1001 | 91.8 | 261 | 356 | 36.4 | 444 | 70.1 |
Thyroid | 679 | 1013 | 49.2 | 1248 | 83.8 | 187 | 279 | 49.2 | 338 | 80.7 | 492 | 734 | 49.2 | 910 | 85.0 |
Uterus | 729 | 968 | 32.8 | 1190 | 63.2 | NA | - | - | - | - | 729 | 968 | 32.8 | 1190 | 63.2 |
Total | Males | Females | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 2030 | Δ% | 2040 | Δ% | 2020 | 2030 | Δ% | 2040 | Δ% | 2020 | 2030 | Δ% | 2040 | Δ% | |
All | 523.68 | 512.0 | −2.2 | 507.8 | −3.0 | 548.5 | 519.1 | −5.4 | 513.4 | −6.4 | 498.1 | 504.7 | 1.3 | 502.0 | 0.8 |
Breast 1 | 154.1 | 166.1 | 7.8 | 173.0 | 12.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 154.1 | 166.1 | 7.8 | 173 | 12.3 |
Lung | 63.83 | 56.5 | −11.4 | 50.4 | −21.0 | 65.7 | 58.9 | −10.4 | 56 | −14.8 | 61.9 | 54.1 | −12.6 | 44.7 | −27.8 |
Prostate | 123.7 | 102.0 | −17.5 | 101.2 | −18.2 | 123.7 | 102 | −17.5 | 101.2 | −18.2 | NA | - | - | - | - |
Colorectal | 52.88 | 45.9 | −13.2 | 44.0 | −16.7 | 61.1 | 50.9 | −16.7 | 48.5 | −20.6 | 44.4 | 40.8 | −8.1 | 39.5 | −11.0 |
Bladder | 28.16 | 27.1 | −3.7 | 25.1 | −10.8 | 45.1 | 44.2 | −2.0 | 41.2 | −8.6 | 10.7 | 9.6 | −10.3 | 8.7 | −18.7 |
Melanoma | 21.03 | 23.4 | 11.3 | 23.5 | 11.6 | 22.7 | 27 | 18.9 | 29.1 | 28.2 | 19.5 | 19.7 | 2.1 | 17.7 | −8.3 |
Lymphoma | 23.40 | 22.9 | −2.2 | 21.2 | −9.3 | 27.2 | 27 | −0.7 | 24.9 | −8.5 | 19.5 | 18.7 | −4.1 | 17.5 | −10.3 |
Kidney | 18.8 | 21.3 | 13.3 | 22.6 | 20.2 | 25.3 | 29.6 | 17.0 | 31.9 | 26.1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 13.1 | 8.3 |
Thyroid | 15.64 | 19.5 | 24.9 | 21.3 | 36.5 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 23.3 | 11.2 | 30.2 | 22.9 | 28.7 | 25.3 | 31.7 | 38.4 |
Uterus | 34.3 | 36.8 | 7.3 | 37.0 | 7.9 | NA | - | - | - | - | 34.3 | 36.8 | 7.3 | 37 | 7.9 |
Sex | Cancer Type | One-Year Prevalence | Two-Year Prevalence | Five-Year Prevalence | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 N (ASPR) | 2019 N (ASPR) | 2000 N (ASPR) | 2019 N (ASPR) | 2000 N (ASPR) | 2019 N (ASPR) | ||
Males | Prostate | 1747 (193.9) | 2585 (134.4) | 3267 (361.7) | 4960 (258.5) | 6617 (742.6) | 11,323 (598.5) |
Colorectal | 650 (69.9) | 975 (53.5) | 1161 (126.5) | 1852 (101.1) | 2199 (245.8) | 4232 (234.1) | |
Bladder | 356 (39.1) | 691 (40.8) | 653 (71.6) | 1322 (78.1) | 1370 (151.8) | 2922 (175.2) | |
Lung | 372 (40.6) | 669 (38.2) | 580 (62.6) | 1063 (61.0) | 860 (92.7) | 1816 (103.6) | |
Melanoma | 203 (19.2) | 526 (29.0) | 406 (38.5) | 953 (52.9) | 794 (74.2) | 1971 (109.1) | |
NHL | 190 (16.7) | 465 (25.1) | 352 (32.1) | 836 (44.8) | 691 (64.3) | 1789 (96.4) | |
Kidney | 173 (18.0) | 374 (18.8) | 326 (32.6) | 748 (38.1) | 633 (62.3) | 1691 (86.9) | |
Thyroid | 60 (4.9) | 152 (7.5) | 113 (9.1) | 309 (15.0) | 205 (16.6) | 698 (33.9) | |
All | 5032 (525.4) | 8898 (477.1) | 8953 (933.9) | 16,317 (874.5) | 17,310 (1823.2) | 34,895 (1879.7) | |
Females | Breast | 1620 (142.1) | 3094 (154.8) | 3232 (284.5) | 5991 (300.0) | 6907 (614.0) | 13,366 (673.9) |
Lung | 344 (31.4) | 916 (46.3) | 540 (49.8) | 1553 (78.2) | 844 (78.1) | 2693 (136.0) | |
Colorectal | 537 (50.7) | 743 (38.5) | 887 (83.1) | 1395 (72.4) | 1736 (163.5) | 3163 (164.3) | |
Uterus | 286 (26.6) | 662 (32.6) | 561 (52.1) | 1265 (62.4) | 1262 (117.4) | 2863 (140.8) | |
Melanoma | 200 (15.7) | 429 (21.1) | 403 (31.9) | 864 (42.7) | 895 (70.1) | 1802 (89.8) | |
Thyroid | 154 (11.2) | 419 (20.0) | 268 (19.8) | 855 (40.9) | 613 (45.2) | 1984 (95.4) | |
NHL | 165 (14.7) | 339 (17.3) | 300 (26.7) | 637 (32.3) | 620 (54.5) | 1410 (71.6) | |
Kidney | 124 (11.0) | 182 (9.2) | 199 (17.4) | 380 (19.1) | 415 (36.9) | 883 (43.8) | |
Bladder | 98 (9.1) | 179 (9.3) | 205 (18.8) | 368 (19.1) | 475 (43.6) | 802 (41.9) | |
All | 4595 (403.8) | 8912 (446.9) | 8406 (737.3) | 16,703 (836.4) | 17,172 (1507.2) | 35,792 (1796.7) | |
Both | Breast | 1620 (72.9) | 3094 (76.8) | 3232 (146.3) | 5991 (149.2) | 6907 (317.0) | 13,366 (336.8) |
Prostate | 1747 (87.6) | 2585 (64.5) | 3267 (163.4) | 4960 (124.0) | 6617 (331.8) | 11,323 (285.5) | |
Colorectal | 1187 (59.6) | 1718 (45.1) | 2048 (102.7) | 3247 (85.1) | 3935 (199.7) | 7395 (195.6) | |
Lung | 716 (34.8) | 1585 (42.1) | 1120 (54.7) | 2616 (69.5) | 1704 (83.2) | 4509 (119.8) | |
Melanoma | 403 (16.8) | 955 (24.2) | 809 (34.0) | 1817 (46.3) | 1689 (69.9) | 3773 (96.1) | |
Bladder | 454 (22.2) | 870 (23.7) | 858 (42.0) | 1690 (46.1) | 1845 (90.5) | 3724 (102.7) | |
NHL | 355 (15.6) | 804 (20.8) | 652 (29.1) | 1473 (38.0) | 1311 (58.6) | 3199 (82.6) | |
Uterus | 286 (13.9) | 662 (16.2) | 561 (27.2) | 1265 (31.2) | 1262 (61.1) | 2863 (70.5) | |
Kidney | 297 (14.2) | 556 (13.6) | 525 (24.3) | 1128 (27.9) | 1048 (48.4) | 2574 (63.6) | |
Thyroid | 214 (7.8) | 571 (13.2) | 381 (14.2) | 1164 (26.8) | 818 (30.4) | 2682 (61.9) | |
All | 9627 (449.6) | 17,810 (451.9) | 17,359 (809.4) | 33,020 (836.9) | 34,482 (1609.5) | 70,687 (1798.4) |
Total | Males | Females | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 2030 | Δ% | 2040 | Δ% | 2020 | 2030 | Δ% | 2040 | Δ% | 2020 | 2030 | Δ% | 2040 | Δ% | |
All | 6603 | 8002 | 21.2 | 9849 | 49.2 | 3530 | 4300 | 21.8 | 5433 | 53.9 | 3073 | 3702 | 20.5 | 4416 | 43.7 |
Lung | 469 | 1770 | 10.9 | 1954 | 22.4 | 832 | 965 | 16.0 | 1144 | 37.5 | 764 | 805 | 5.4 | 810 | 6.0 |
Colorectal | 731 | 850 | 16.3 | 1070 | 46.4 | 426 | 513 | 20.4 | 645 | 51.4 | 305 | 337 | 10.5 | 425 | 39.3 |
Breast 1 | 469 | 572 | 22.0 | 702 | 49.7 | - | - | - | - | - | 469 | 572 | 22.0 | 702 | 49.7 |
Prostate | 393 | 474 | 20.6 | 655 | 66.7 | 393 | 474 | 20.6 | 655 | 66.7 | - | - | - | - | - |
Bladder | 172 | 228 | 32.6 | 316 | 83.7 | 120 | 152 | 26.7 | 211 | 75.8 | 52 | 76 | 46.2 | 105 | 101.9 |
Lymphoma | 232 | 261 | 12.5 | 286 | 23.3 | 132 | 154 | 16.7 | 177 | 34.1 | 100 | 107 | 7.0 | 109 | 9.0 |
Kidney | 159 | 197 | 23.9 | 250 | 57.2 | 58 | 102 | 17.6 | 147 | 44.1 | 33 | 57 | 35.1 | 103 | 80.7 |
Uterus | 114 | 167 | 46.5 | 220 | 93.0 | - | - | - | - | - | 13 | 114 | 46.5 | 220 | 93.0 |
Melanoma | 91 | 120 | 31.9 | 153 | 68.1 | 58 | 76 | 31.0 | 96 | 65.5 | 33 | 44 | 33.3 | 57 | 72.7 |
Thyroid | 23 | 34 | 47.8 | 43 | 87.0 | 10 | 15 | 50.0 | 18 | 80.0 | 57 | 13 | 46.2 | 25 | 92.3 |
Most Recent Cancer Diagnosed | Phase of Care | 2020 ($) | 2040 ($) | Increase (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Colorectal | Total | 122,056,321 | 175,089,299 | 43 |
Diagnosis | 6,201,577 | 8,727,560 | 41 | |
Initial treatment | 94,567,346 | 138,541,923 | 47 | |
Continuing care | 11,579,055 | 15,217,625 | 31 | |
Terminal | 9,708,343 | 12,602,192 | 30 | |
Lung | Total | 80,062,069 | 81,711,799 | 2 |
Diagnosis | 16,380,639 | 17,190,802 | 5 | |
Initial treatment | 31,786,632 | 30,011,334 | −6 | |
Continuing care | 1,898,700 | 2,001,810 | 5 | |
Terminal | 29,996,099 | 32,507,853 | 8 | |
Breast | Total | 102,936,549 | 127,829,015 | 24 |
Diagnosis | 1,229,619 | 1,602,038 | 30 | |
Initial treatment | 58,908,315 | 69,563,079 | 18 | |
Continuing care | 29,821,787 | 41,150,979 | 38 | |
Terminal | 12,976,829 | 15,512,920 | 20 | |
Prostate | Total | 229,138,720 | 394,140,016 | 72 |
Diagnosis | 2,425,117 | 3,486,476 | 44 | |
Initial treatment | 31,956,724 | 45,942,674 | 44 | |
Continuing care | 182,577,250 | 326,191,828 | 79 | |
Terminal | 11,657,739 | 18,074,378 | 55 | |
Hematological | Total | 265,712,085 | 449,081,750 | 69 |
Diagnosis | 3,590,863 | 5,881,751 | 64 | |
Initial treatment | 43,251,421 | 70,847,688 | 64 | |
Continuing care | 162,869,322 | 275,116,047 | 69 | |
Terminal | 55,721,320 | 96,285,800 | 73 |
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Brenner, D.R.; Carbonell, C.; O’Sullivan, D.E.; Ruan, Y.; Basmadjian, R.B.; Bu, V.; Farah, E.; Loewen, S.K.; Bond, T.R.; Estey, A.; et al. Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040. Curr. Oncol. 2023, 30, 9981-9995. https://doi.org/10.3390/curroncol30110725
Brenner DR, Carbonell C, O’Sullivan DE, Ruan Y, Basmadjian RB, Bu V, Farah E, Loewen SK, Bond TR, Estey A, et al. Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040. Current Oncology. 2023; 30(11):9981-9995. https://doi.org/10.3390/curroncol30110725
Chicago/Turabian StyleBrenner, Darren R., Chantelle Carbonell, Dylan E. O’Sullivan, Yibing Ruan, Robert B. Basmadjian, Vickey Bu, Eliya Farah, Shaun K. Loewen, Tara R. Bond, Angela Estey, and et al. 2023. "Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040" Current Oncology 30, no. 11: 9981-9995. https://doi.org/10.3390/curroncol30110725