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Simulation of Land Use Pattern Evolution from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Study of Suzhou City in Anhui Province, China

New Rural Development Research Institute, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China
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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(3), 921; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18030921
Received: 25 November 2020 / Revised: 15 January 2021 / Accepted: 15 January 2021 / Published: 21 January 2021
Land use/land cover change is a frontier issue in the field of geography research. Taking Suzhou City in Anhui Province as the research case, based on thematic mapper /enhanced thematic mapper+ (TM/ETM+) remote sensing data from 1998 to 2018, through the transfer matrix model and modified conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent (CLUE-S) model, the simulation of the land use landscape pattern evolution was studied from a multi-scenario perspective. The results showed that in the past 20 years, landscape patterns have undergone spatial–temporal conversion, which was mainly manifested as the evolution from a cultivated land landscape and other agricultural land to construction land, and there was some transformation between other landscape types, but the transformation degree was not significant. The spatial autocorrelation factor was introduced to correct the CLUE-S model, and the Kappa index reached 0.83, indicating that the modified CLUE-S model had a good simulation accuracy. (I) In the cultivated land protection scenario, limiting the conversion of basic farmland use, and by 2028, the proportion of cultivated land increased by 5.23%, distributed in eastern Suzhou City; (II) in the economic development scenario, by 2028, the construction land area increased by 14.58%, and was distributed in the surrounding regions of the built-up areas; and (III) in the ecological protection scenario, by 2028, wood land, water, and other ecological protection land area increased, and were distributed in the central and eastern part of Suzhou City. Research can provide useful decision-making support for land use optimization and remediation. View Full-Text
Keywords: land use; landscape pattern; CLUE-S; spatial–temporal simulation; many situations; Suzhou land use; landscape pattern; CLUE-S; spatial–temporal simulation; many situations; Suzhou
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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, R.; Lu, J. Simulation of Land Use Pattern Evolution from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Study of Suzhou City in Anhui Province, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 921. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18030921

AMA Style

Zhang R, Lu J. Simulation of Land Use Pattern Evolution from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Study of Suzhou City in Anhui Province, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(3):921. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18030921

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhang, Rongtian; Lu, Jianfei. 2021. "Simulation of Land Use Pattern Evolution from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Study of Suzhou City in Anhui Province, China" Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 18, no. 3: 921. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18030921

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