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Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Emergence in Québec

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Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, 3755 Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montréal, QC H3T 1E2, Canada
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Centre de Recherche en Santé Publique, 7101 Av du Parc, Montréal, QC H3N 1X9, Canada
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Département de Médecine Sociale et Préventive, École de Santé Publique, Université de Montréal, 7101 Av du Parc, Montréal, QC H3N 1X9, Canada
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Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada
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Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, 1020 Pine Ave W, Montréal, QC H3A 1A2, Canada
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Zahid Ahmad Butt
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(18), 9669; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189669
Received: 28 July 2021 / Revised: 2 September 2021 / Accepted: 8 September 2021 / Published: 14 September 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Infectious Disease Epidemiology)
Lyme disease is a growing public health problem in Québec. Its emergence over the last decade is caused by environmental and anthropological factors that favour the survival of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of Lyme disease transmission. The objective of this study was to estimate the speed and direction of human Lyme disease emergence in Québec and to identify spatiotemporal risk patterns. A surface trend analysis was conducted to estimate the speed and direction of its emergence based upon the first detected case of Lyme disease in each municipality in Québec since 2004. A cluster analysis was also conducted to identify at-risk regions across space and time. These analyses were reproduced for the date of disease onset and date of notification for each case of Lyme disease. It was estimated that Lyme disease is spreading northward in Québec at a speed varying between 18 and 32 km/year according to the date of notification and the date of disease onset, respectively. A significantly high risk of disease was found in seven clusters identified in the south-west of Québec in the sociosanitary regions of Montérégie and Estrie. The results obtained in this study improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of Lyme disease in Québec, which can be used for proactive, targeted interventions by public and clinical health authorities. View Full-Text
Keywords: Lyme disease; Québec; spatiotemporal patterns; front wave velocity; clusters; emergence Lyme disease; Québec; spatiotemporal patterns; front wave velocity; clusters; emergence
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MDPI and ACS Style

Tutt-Guérette, M.-A.; Yuan, M.; Szaroz, D.; McKinnon, B.; Kestens, Y.; Guillot, C.; Leighton, P.; Zinszer, K. Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Emergence in Québec. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 9669. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189669

AMA Style

Tutt-Guérette M-A, Yuan M, Szaroz D, McKinnon B, Kestens Y, Guillot C, Leighton P, Zinszer K. Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Emergence in Québec. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(18):9669. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189669

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tutt-Guérette, Marc-Antoine, Mengru Yuan, Daniel Szaroz, Britt McKinnon, Yan Kestens, Camille Guillot, Patrick Leighton, and Kate Zinszer. 2021. "Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Emergence in Québec" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 18: 9669. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189669

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