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Article

Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan

1
College of Engineering and Design, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
2
School of Engineering and Technology, University of Washington, Tacoma, WA 98402, USA
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State Key Laboratory of Developmental Biology of Freshwater Fish, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Hideo Kato and Yukihiro Hamada
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(13), 6858; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136858
Received: 6 April 2021 / Revised: 14 June 2021 / Accepted: 21 June 2021 / Published: 26 June 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue State-of-the-Art Infectious Disease Epidemiology in Japan)
To assess the effectiveness of the containment strategies proposed in Japan, an SEIAQR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-quarantined-recovered) model was established to simulate the transmission of COVID-19. We divided the spread of COVID-19 in Japan into different stages based on policies. The effective reproduction number Re and the transmission parameters were determined to evaluate the measures conducted by the Japanese Government during these periods. On 7 April 2020, the Japanese authority declared a state of emergency to control the rapid development of the pandemic. Based on the simulation results, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan can be inhibited by containment actions during the state of emergency. The effective reproduction number Re reduced from 1.99 (before the state of emergency) to 0.92 (after the state of emergency). The transmission parameters were fitted and characterized with quantifiable variables including the ratio of untracked cases, the PCR test index and the proportion of COCOA app users (official contact confirming application). The impact of these variables on the control of COVID-19 was investigated in the modelling analysis. On 8 January 2021, the Japanese Government declared another state of emergency. The simulated results demonstrated that the spread could be controlled in May by keeping the same strategies. A higher intensity of PCR testing was suggested, and a larger proportion of COCOA app users should reduce the final number of infections and the time needed to control the spread of COVID-19. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical modelling; state of emergency; containment policies COVID-19; mathematical modelling; state of emergency; containment policies
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MDPI and ACS Style

Chen, Z.; Shu, Z.; Huang, X.; Peng, K.; Pan, J. Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 6858. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136858

AMA Style

Chen Z, Shu Z, Huang X, Peng K, Pan J. Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(13):6858. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136858

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chen, Zhongxiang, Zhiquan Shu, Xiuxiang Huang, Ke Peng, and Jiaji Pan. 2021. "Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 13: 6858. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136858

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