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Article

A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region

1
School of Computer Science, Technological University Dublin, D24 FKT9 Dublin, Ireland
2
School of Computer Science, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8 Dublin, Ireland
3
ADAPT Research Centre, Technological University Dublin, D24 FKT9 Dublin, Ireland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(9), 3119; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093119
Received: 31 March 2020 / Revised: 27 April 2020 / Accepted: 28 April 2020 / Published: 30 April 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Infectious Disease Modeling in the Era of Complex Data)
In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town within a network influences the outbreak. Our main finding is that the commuters coming into a town have a greater effect on whether an outbreak will spread to a town than the commuters going out. The findings on centrality of a town and how it influences an outbreak could potentially be used to help influence future policy and intervention strategies such as school closure policies. View Full-Text
Keywords: infectious disease; epidemiology; agent-based model; centrality; simulation infectious disease; epidemiology; agent-based model; centrality; simulation
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MDPI and ACS Style

Hunter, E.; Mac Namee, B.; Kelleher, J.D. A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 3119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093119

AMA Style

Hunter E, Mac Namee B, Kelleher JD. A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(9):3119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093119

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hunter, Elizabeth, Brian Mac Namee, and John D. Kelleher 2020. "A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 9: 3119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093119

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