Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model

Oraby, Tamer; Tyshenko, Michael G.; Balkhy, Hanan H.; Tasnif, Yasar; Quiroz-Gaspar, Adriana; Mohamed, Zeinab; Araya, Ayesha; Elsaadany, Susie; Al-Mazroa, Eman; Alhelail, Mohammed A.; Arabi, Yaseen M.; Al-Zoughool, Mustafa

doi:10.3390/ijerph17082936

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Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model

^1,*,

²,

³,

⁴,

Adriana Quiroz-Gaspar

¹,

¹,

⁵,

⁶,

^7,8,

^9,10,

^9,11

and

Mustafa Al-Zoughool

¹²

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX 78539, USA

McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada

World Health Organization, 01211 Geneva, Switzerland

⁴

Solid Organ Transplant, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390, USA

⁵

Valley Baptist Medical Center, Brownsville, TX 78520, USA

⁶

Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5, Canada

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Infection Prevention and Control Department, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh 14611, Saudi Arabia

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King Abdullah International Medical Research Center (KAIMRC), Riyadh 11481, Saudi Arabia

⁹

College of Medicine, King Saud bin Abdulaziz, University for Health Sciences, Riyadh 14611, Saudi Arabia

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Emergency Department, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh 14611, Saudi Arabia

¹¹

Intensive Care Department, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh 14611, Saudi Arabia

¹²

Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University, Safat 13110, Kuwait

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(8), 2936; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082936

Received: 15 March 2020 / Revised: 14 April 2020 / Accepted: 20 April 2020 / Published: 23 April 2020

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Infectious Disease Modeling in the Era of Complex Data)

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Abstract

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging zoonotic coronavirus that has a tendency to cause significant healthcare outbreaks among patients with serious comorbidities. We analyzed hospital data from the MERS-CoV outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) ward transmission model. The SEIR compartmental model considers several areas within the hospital where transmission occurred. We use a system of ordinary differential equations that incorporates the following units: emergency department (ED), out-patient clinic, intensive care unit, and hospital wards, where each area has its own carrying capacity and distinguishes the transmission by three individuals in the hospital: patients, health care workers (HCW), or mobile health care workers. The emergency department, as parameterized has a large influence over the epidemic size for both patients and health care workers. Trend of the basic reproduction number (R₀), which reached a maximum of 1.39 at the peak of the epidemic and declined to 0.92 towards the end, shows that until added hospital controls are introduced, the outbreak would continue with sustained transmission between wards. Transmission rates where highest in the ED, and mobile HCWs were responsible for large part of the outbreak. View Full-Text

Keywords: healthcare MERS-CoV outbreak; SEIR ward transmission model; basic reproduction number

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Oraby, T.; Tyshenko, M.G.; Balkhy, H.H.; Tasnif, Y.; Quiroz-Gaspar, A.; Mohamed, Z.; Araya, A.; Elsaadany, S.; Al-Mazroa, E.; Alhelail, M.A.; Arabi, Y.M.; Al-Zoughool, M. Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 2936. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082936

AMA Style

Oraby T, Tyshenko MG, Balkhy HH, Tasnif Y, Quiroz-Gaspar A, Mohamed Z, Araya A, Elsaadany S, Al-Mazroa E, Alhelail MA, Arabi YM, Al-Zoughool M. Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(8):2936. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082936

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oraby, Tamer, Michael G. Tyshenko, Hanan H. Balkhy, Yasar Tasnif, Adriana Quiroz-Gaspar, Zeinab Mohamed, Ayesha Araya, Susie Elsaadany, Eman Al-Mazroa, Mohammed A. Alhelail, Yaseen M. Arabi, and Mustafa Al-Zoughool. 2020. "Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 8: 2936. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082936

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Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model

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