Did an Ultra-Low Emissions Policy on Coal-Fueled Thermal Power Reduce the Harmful Emissions? Evidence from Three Typical Air Pollutants Abatement in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Development History of Thermal Power
1.2. History of Thermal Power Emissions Reductions in China
1.3. Policy Release Background
1.4. Policy Implications for China
1.5. ULE Technical Route
2. Literature Review and Hypothesis
2.1. Background on ULE Policy in the Power Industry
2.2. Review on Policy Testing Methods
2.3. Research Hypothesis
3. Methods
3.1. Selection of the Treated and Control Groups
3.2. Model Specification
3.3. Data Sources and Variable Descriptive Statistics
4. Empirical Results
4.1. Effect Test of ULE
4.1.1. Emissions Reduction for SO2
4.1.2. Emission Reductions for NOx
4.1.3. Emissions Reduction for Smoke Dust
4.2. Robustness Test
4.2.1. Parallel Trend Test
4.2.2. Placebo Test
5. Conclusions and Suggestions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
ULE | Ultra-low Emission |
DID | Difference-in-Difference |
Btu | British Thermal Unit |
SO2 | sulfur dioxide |
NOx | nitrogen oxide |
kWh | kilowatt hour |
tce | Ton (Tonne) of Coal Equivalent |
Obs | number of observations |
Mean | mean value |
St.d | standard deviation |
Min | minimum value |
Median | Median value |
Max | maximum value |
R2 within | goodness of fit within the group |
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Emission Standard’s Name | Date of Issue | Concentration Limits (mg/m3) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
SO2 | NOx | Smoke Dust | ||
Emission standards for air pollutants from coal-fired power plants | Sep 2011 | 100 | 100 | 30 |
Standards for the discharge of atmospheric pollutants from boilers 1 | May 2014 | 300 (400) | 300 (400) | 50 (80) |
Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014–2020) 2 | June 2014 | No new restricted limits proposed | ||
Coal-fired energy-saving emission reduction upgrade and transformation action plan (2014–2020) | Sep 2014 | 35 | 50 | 10 |
Full implementation of the ultra-low emission and energy-saving transformation work plan for coal-fired power plants 2 | Mar 2015 | 35 | 50 | 10 |
Name of Control Variable (Unit) | Symbol | Generated Pollutant | Taking the Logarithm or Not |
---|---|---|---|
Crude steel (million tons) | steel | SO2 | Yes |
Sulfuric acid (in 100%) (million tons) | sulacid | SO2 | Yes |
Chemical fertilizer (in NPK 1) (million tons) | fertilizer | NOx | Yes |
Vehicle holdings (million) | car | NOx and smoke dust | Yes |
Annual fixed-asset investment (trillion CNY) | fixedasset | Smoke dust | Yes |
Variable | Region | Obs | Mean | St.d | Min | Median | Max | Unit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ULE | East | 63 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |
Central | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
West | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Thermal | East | 63 | 220.279 | 129.192 | 58.732 | 225.860 | 514.288 | billion kWh |
Central | 70 | 147.094 | 95.242 | 51.625 | 89.721 | 375.033 | ||
West | 14 | 44.850 | 13.520 | 23.804 | 46.072 | 62.810 | ||
SO2 | East | 63 | 0.668 | 0.471 | 0.019 | 0.593 | 1.827 | million tons |
Central | 70 | 0.630 | 0.370 | 0.166 | 0.525 | 1.409 | ||
West | 14 | 0.652 | 0.164 | 0.384 | 0.668 | 0.902 | ||
NOx | East | 63 | 0.862 | 0.499 | 0.142 | 0.843 | 1.801 | million tons |
Central | 70 | 0.728 | 0.355 | 0.255 | 0.606 | 1.665 | ||
West | 14 | 0.330 | 0.071 | 0.224 | 0.340 | 0.429 | ||
Dust | East | 63 | 0.505 | 0.417 | 0.047 | 0.354 | 1.798 | million tons |
Central | 70 | 0.523 | 0.282 | 0.188 | 0.447 | 1.507 | ||
West | 14 | 0.330 | 0.071 | 0.224 | 0.340 | 0.429 | ||
East | 63 | 2.238 | 2.645 | 0 | 0 | 6.243 | - | |
Central | 70 | 2.062 | 2.436 | 0 | 0 | 5.927 | ||
West | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Explained Variable | Region | DID | Control Variable | Constant | R2 within | Obs. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern | −0.124 *** (−7.23) | No | - | - | −0.455 * (−1.87) | 0.447 | 77 | |
−0.133 *** (−7.34) | Yes | 0.517 *** (4.79) | 0.321 *** (4.46) | −2.408 * (−6.39) | 0.422 | 77 | ||
Central | −0.121 *** (−8.84) | No | - | - | −0.388 *** (3.13) | 0.529 | 84 | |
−0.120 *** (−8.56) | Yes | 0.054 (0.29) | −0.039 (−0.54) | −518 (−0.96) | 0.527 | 84 | ||
Eastern | −0.140 *** (−7.68) | No | - | - | −5.365 *** (−32.51) | 0.483 | 77 | |
−0.149 *** (−7.59) | Yes | 0.057 (0.45) | 0.299 *** (3.58) | −5.724 *** (−13.02) | 0.477 | 77 | ||
Central | −0.148 *** (−8.55) | No | - | - | −4.960 *** (−60.11) | 0.531 | 84 | |
−0.144 *** (−8.74) | Yes | −0.420 *** (−2.69) | 0.109 ** (1.98) | −3.824 (−8.63) | 0.506 | 84 |
Explained Variable | Region | DID | Control Variable | Constant | R2 within | Obs. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern | −0.078 *** (−9.37) | No | - | - | −0.273 (−1.50) | 0.587 | 77 | |
−0.057 *** (−4.29) | Yes | 0.213 *** (3.70) | −0.167 (−1.51) | 0.053 (0.24) | 0.646 | 77 | ||
Central | −0.093 *** (−10.58) | No | - | - | −0.304 *** (−3.19) | 0.640 | 84 | |
−0.053 *** (−4.57) | Yes | 0.076 * (1.76) | −0.393 *** (−4.58) | 0.128 (0.94) | 0.758 | 84 | ||
Eastern | −0.091 *** (−9.94) | No | - | - | −5.188 *** (−52.69) | 0.628 | 77 | |
−0.065 *** (−5.40) | Yes | 0.168 *** (3.41) | −0.256 ** (−2.59) | −4.717 *** (−24.53) | 0.648 | 77 | ||
Central | −0.110 *** (−10.04) | No | - | - | −4.893 *** (−69.09) | 0.605 | 84 | |
−0.098 *** (−6.24) | Yes | −0.021 (−0.43) | −0.144 (−1.30) | −4.700 *** (−31.78) | 0.630 | 84 |
Explained Variable | Region | DID | Control Variable | Constant | R2 within | Obs. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern | −0.032 *** (−2.61) | No | - | - | −1.014 *** (−3.88) | 0.097 | 77 | |
−0.036 * (−1.94) | Yes | 0.196 (0.69) | −0.194 (−0.77) | −1.017 *** (−2.90) | 0.092 | 77 | ||
Central | −0.047 *** (−5.02) | No | - | - | −0.838 *** (−5.78) | 0.174 | 84 | |
−0.043 *** (−2.93) | Yes | −0.015 (−0.06) | −0.028 (−0.13) | −0.076 *** (−3.60) | 0.178 | 84 | ||
Eastern | −0.043 *** (−3.33) | No | - | - | −5.932 *** (−28.92) | 0.143 | 77 | |
−0.052 *** (−2.78) | Yes | 0.064 (0.23) | −0.063 (0.25) | −6.148 *** (−17.68) | 0.154 | 77 | ||
Central | −0.058 *** (−5.79) | No | - | - | −5.685 *** (−43.30) | 0.210 | 84 | |
−0.041 *** (−2.66) | Yes | −0.287 (−1.15) | 0.124 (0.54) | −5.458 *** (−25.48) | 0.220 | 84 |
Explained Variable | Region | DID | Execution Year | Timespan | Control Variable | R2 Within | Obs. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East | −0.019 * (−1.71) | 2011 | 2009–2014 | Yes | 0.000 | 66 | |
Central | −0.015 * (−1.80) | 2011 | 2009–2014 | Yes | 0.113 | 72 | |
East | −0.007 (−1.10) | 2012 | 2011–2014 | Yes | 0.027 | 44 | |
Central | 0.001 (0.32) | 2012 | 2011–2014 | Yes | 0.837 | 48 | |
East | 0.009 (0.58) | 2013 | 2011–2014 | Yes | 0.422 | 44 | |
Central | 0.014 (0.94) | 2013 | 2011–2014 | Yes | 0.198 | 48 |
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Ye, P.; Xia, S.; Xiong, Y.; Liu, C.; Li, F.; Liang, J.; Zhang, H. Did an Ultra-Low Emissions Policy on Coal-Fueled Thermal Power Reduce the Harmful Emissions? Evidence from Three Typical Air Pollutants Abatement in China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 8555. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17228555
Ye P, Xia S, Xiong Y, Liu C, Li F, Liang J, Zhang H. Did an Ultra-Low Emissions Policy on Coal-Fueled Thermal Power Reduce the Harmful Emissions? Evidence from Three Typical Air Pollutants Abatement in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(22):8555. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17228555
Chicago/Turabian StyleYe, Penghao, Senmao Xia, Yu Xiong, Chaoyang Liu, Fei Li, Jiamin Liang, and Huarong Zhang. 2020. "Did an Ultra-Low Emissions Policy on Coal-Fueled Thermal Power Reduce the Harmful Emissions? Evidence from Three Typical Air Pollutants Abatement in China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 22: 8555. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17228555