Cyclist Injury Severity in Spain: A Bayesian Analysis of Police Road Injury Data Focusing on Involved Vehicles and Route Environment
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Approach
2.2. Variables
2.3. Model
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Statistics
3.2. Factors Associated with High Risk
3.3. Interactions between Vehicle Type and Route Environment
4. Discussion
5. Limitations and Generalisability
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Nº Total Cases | % Cases | Nº Cases Cyclists | % Cases Cyclists | Nº Cases Non Cyclists | % Cases Non Cyclists | Comments |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vehicle involved in an incident in which a cyclist was injured | |||||||
Bicycle | 7488 | 60.8% | 7488 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | Bicycle |
Car | 4262 | 34.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 4262 | 88.2% | Car, van, SUV |
Motorcycle | 313 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 313 | 6.5% | Moped, motorcycle (125 cc) |
Lorry/truck | 155 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 155 | 3.2% | Truck, articulated truck, articulated vehicle |
Bus | 53 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 53 | 1.1% | Minibus (up to 17 passengers), bus, articulated bus |
Others | 47 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 47 | 1.0% | Other vehicles |
Bicycle infrastructure present? | |||||||
Yes | 537 | 4.4% | 527 | 7.0% | 10 | 0.2% | Footway bicycle lane, bicycle lane, protected bicycle lane, “Pista-bici” (cycle track shared with pedestrians) |
No | 5804 | 47.1% | 3273 | 43.7% | 2531 | 52.4% | |
Unknown | 5977 | 48.5% | 3688 | 49.3% | 2289 | 47.4% | |
Zone | |||||||
Urban | 8740 | 71.0% | 5138 | 68.6% | 3602 | 74.6% | Street |
Inter-urban or urban highway | 3572 | 29.0% | 2344 | 31.3% | 1228 | 25.4% | Highway/motorway, road, secondary road |
Traffic calming (30 kph or less) | |||||||
Yes | 1214 | 9.9% | 702 | 9.4% | 512 | 10.6% | Residential, pedestrian areas, zone limited to 30 kph, any other area under speed reduction regulations |
Others | 6329 | 51.4% | 3843 | 51.3% | 2486 | 51.5% | Peri-urban area, ring roads |
Unknown | 4769 | 38.7% | 2937 | 39.2% | 1832 | 37.9% | |
Intersection | |||||||
Yes | 5924 | 48.1% | 3205 | 42.8% | 2719 | 56.3% | At a junction |
No | 6388 | 51.9% | 4277 | 57.1% | 2111 | 43.7% | Not at a junction |
Weather conditions | |||||||
Clear | 9329 | 75.7% | 5606 | 74.9% | 3723 | 77.1% | Clear day, sunny, not cloudy |
Other | 759 | 6.2% | 450 | 6.0% | 309 | 6.4% | Cloudy, light rain, heavy rain, hailing, snowing |
Unknown | 2230 | 18.1% | 1432 | 19.1% | 798 | 16.5% | |
Surface | |||||||
Good | 10,413 | 84.5% | 6246 | 83.4% | 4167 | 86.3% | Dry and clean |
Others | 867 | 7.0% | 596 | 8.0% | 271 | 5.6% | Sandy or gravel, wet, waterlogged or flooded, icy, snowy, oily, other |
Unknown | 1038 | 8.4% | 646 | 8.6% | 392 | 8.1% | |
Light | |||||||
Good | 10,072 | 81.8% | 6189 | 82.7% | 3883 | 80.4% | Natural daylight |
Others | 2240 | 18.2% | 1293 | 17.3% | 947 | 19.6% | Sunrise or sunset, night-time, without natural light, with artificial light or without artificial light or any light |
Unknown | 6 | 0.0% | 6 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0% | |
Visibility | |||||||
Good | 3619 | 29.4% | 2245 | 30.0% | 1374 | 28.4% | Good visibility |
Others | 861 | 7.0% | 506 | 6.8% | 355 | 7.3% | Buildings, facilities or elements on the road, atmospheric factors, blinded by sun, artificial lighting or headlights of another vehicle, works, vegetation or trees, decorative elements, other objects on the road, panels and advertising, others |
Unknown | 7838 | 63.6% | 4737 | 63.3% | 3101 | 64.2% | |
Age | |||||||
<18 | 818 | 6.6% | 806 | 10.8% | 12 | 0.2% | |
18–25 | 1234 | 10.0% | 849 | 11.3% | 385 | 8.0% | |
25–40 | 8357 | 67.8% | 4800 | 64.1% | 3557 | 73.6% | |
40–60 | 1648 | 13.4% | 879 | 11.7% | 769 | 15.9% | |
>60 | 261 | 2.1% | 154 | 2.1% | 107 | 2.2% | |
Gender | |||||||
Men | 9766 | 79.3% | 6223 | 83.1% | 3543 | 73.4% | |
Women | 2468 | 20.0% | 1223 | 16.3% | 1245 | 25.8% | |
Unknown | 84 | 0.7% | 42 | 0.6% | 42 | 0.9% | |
Driving licence | |||||||
Yes | 2682 | 21.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 2682 | 55.5% | Correct driving licence |
No | 194 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 194 | 4.0% | Not carrying a valid licence with them. Redeemed, inappropriate, timed out, cancelled or suspended, never had a licence, exhausted all licence points (in Spain there is a penalty points system for drivers) |
Unknown | 9442 | 76.7% | 7488 | 100.0% | 1954 | 40.5% | |
Seat-Belt | |||||||
Yes | 2935 | 23.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 2935 | 60.8% | Seat-belt fastened |
No | 230 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 230 | 4.8% | Seat-belt not fastened |
Unknown or N/A | 9153 | 74.3% | 7488 | 100.0% | 1665 | 34.5% | |
Helmet | |||||||
Yes | 3627 | 29.4% | 3363 | 44.9% | 264 | 5.5% | Wearing a helmet or it was apparently expelled |
No | 2148 | 17.4% | 2134 | 28.5% | 14 | 0.3% | Not wearing a helmet |
Unknown | 6543 | 53.1% | 1991 | 26.6% | 4552 | 94.2% | |
Infringement | |||||||
No infraction | 4402 | 35.7% | 3119 | 41.7% | 1283 | 26.6% | No presumed infraction |
Yes | 2601 | 21.1% | 1057 | 14.1% | 1544 | 32.0% | Not obeying the STOP sign, failing to "give away", not obeying the traffic light, not obeying generic priority rule, not respecting a signalised pedestrian crossing, not obeying the indications of an agent, not obeying other priority signs of way, partially invading the opposite direction, zigzagging, turning or changing direction illicitly, illicit driving in reverse gear, stopping without a due cause, not keeping the safety distance, stopping or parking when forbidden or dangerous, not indicating or wrongly indicating a manoeuvre, driving in the wrong direction, driving in a prohibited space, participating in unauthorised competitions or races |
Unknown | 5315 | 43.1% | 3312 | 44.2% | 2003 | 41.5% | |
Speed | |||||||
No infraction | 6249 | 50.7% | 3764 | 50.3% | 2485 | 51.4% | Adequate speed |
Yes | 303 | 2.5% | 248 | 3.3% | 55 | 1.1% | Inadequate speed for road conditions, exceeding the established speed or going too slowly/hindering circulation |
Unknown | 5766 | 46.8% | 3476 | 46.4% | 2290 | 47.4% | |
Other infringement | |||||||
No infraction | 4730 | 38.4% | 2865 | 38.3% | 1865 | 38.6% | No infractions |
Yes | 201 | 1.6% | 115 | 1.5% | 86 | 1.8% | Not using adequate lights, dazzling headlights, badly conditioned load, excess of load, load detachment, opening doors without precaution, excess of occupants, another infraction |
Unknown | 7387 | 60.0% | 4508 | 60.2% | 2879 | 59.6% | |
Responsible | |||||||
No | 3374 | 27.4% | 2345 | 31.3% | 1029 | 21.3% | The driver/rider is not responsible |
Yes | 4359 | 35.4% | 2181 | 29.1% | 2178 | 45.1% | The driver/rider is responsible |
Unknown | 4585 | 37.2% | 2962 | 39.6% | 1623 | 33.6% | |
Distraction | |||||||
No | 3071 | 24.9% | 1951 | 26.1% | 1120 | 23.2% | No distracting factors |
Yes | 377 | 3.1% | 214 | 2.9% | 163 | 3.4% | Use of mobile phone, use of hand-free devices, use of GPS devices, radio or music on, watching DVD or video device, wearing headphones, smoking, simultaneous driving activities (eating, drinking, finding objects…), interacting with other occupants, distracted by a previous collision, looking at the environment (landscape, advertising, signs...), lost in thought or absent minded, sleep, fatigue, sudden illness, indisposition |
Unknown | 8870 | 72.0% | 5323 | 71.1% | 3547 | 73.4% | |
Errors | |||||||
No | 3303 | 26.8% | 2275 | 30.4% | 1028 | 21.3% | No errors |
Yes | 2044 | 16.6% | 960 | 12.8% | 1084 | 22.4% | Failing to see a road sign, failing to see a vehicle/pedestrian/obstacle, not understanding a road sign or confused by it, hesitation or delay in making a decision, incorrect execution of a manoeuvre or inadequate manoeuvre, forgetting to signalise (with the vehicle indicators or lights…) |
Unknown | 6971 | 56.6% | 4253 | 56.8% | 2718 | 56.3% | |
Seriously injured or killed? | |||||||
No | 11521 | 93.5% | 6711 | 89.6% | 4810 | 99.6% | Moderately injured or uninjured in the collision |
Yes | 797 | 6.5% | 777 | 10.4% | 20 | 0.4% | Seriously injured or killed in the collision |
Incident involving one or more motor vehicles? | |||||||
Yes | 9678 | 78.6% | 4880 | 65.2% | 4798 | 99.3% | Motor vehicles involved in the collision |
No | 2608 | 21.2% | 2608 | 34.8% | 0 | 0.0% | No motor vehicles involved in the collision |
Type of Injury | Drivers or Riders Involved In a Collision in Which One or More Cyclists were Injured | Cyclists | Other Road Users (Motorists) |
---|---|---|---|
Uninjured | 4884 | 258 (3.4%) | 4626 (95.8%) |
Slightly injured | 6637 | 6453 (86.2%) | 184 (3.8%) |
Seriously injured | 728 | 711 (9.5%) | 17 (0.4%) |
Killed | 69 | 66 (0.9%) | 3 (0.1%) |
Total | 7488 | 4830 |
Factor | Variables | KSI |
---|---|---|
Other vehicle involvement | No motor vehicles involved | 0.120 |
Car | 0.101 | |
Motorcycle | 0.081 | |
Truck | 0.239 | |
Bus | 0.133 | |
Others | 0.238 | |
Bicycle infrastructure present | Yes | 0.088 |
No | 0.122 | |
Zone | Urban | 0.079 |
Inter-urban or urban highway | 0.190 | |
Traffic calming (30 kph or less) | Yes | 0.083 |
No | 0.119 | |
Intersection | Yes | 0.110 |
No | 0.111 | |
Weather | Clear | 0.116 |
Other | 0.113 | |
Surface | Good | 0.113 |
Other | 0.114 | |
Light | Good | 0.114 |
Other | 0.095 | |
Visibility | Good | 0.203 |
Other | 0.270 |
Variables | Value | KSI |
---|---|---|
Age | ||
Cyclist | <18 | 0.093 |
18–25 | 0.094 | |
25–40 | 0.115 | |
40–60 | 0.128 | |
>60 | 0.091 | |
Motorist | <18 | 0.160 |
18–25 | 0.107 | |
25–40 | 0.108 | |
40–60 | 0.122 | |
>60 | 0.089 | |
Gender | ||
Cyclist | Men | 0.113 |
Women | 0.101 | |
Motorist | Men | 0.111 |
Women | 0.108 | |
Seat-belt | ||
Motorist | Yes | 0.109 |
No | 0.118 | |
Driving-Licence | ||
Motorist | Yes | 0.113 |
No | 0.112 | |
Helmet | ||
Cyclist | Yes | 0.142 |
None | 0.108 | |
Motorist | Yes | 0.136 |
None | 0.161 | |
Infringement | ||
Cyclist | no infraction | 0.115 |
Yes | 0.112 | |
Motorist | no infraction | 0.114 |
Yes | 0.113 | |
Speed | ||
Cyclist | no infraction | 0.115 |
speed infraction | 0.116 | |
Motorist | no infraction | 0.114 |
speed infraction | 0.113 | |
Other Infringement | ||
Cyclist | no infraction | 0.123 |
Yes | 0.097 | |
Motorist | no infraction | 0.119 |
Yes | 0.106 | |
Responsible | ||
Cyclist | no | 0.116 |
Yes | 0.109 | |
Motorist | no | 0.111 |
Yes | 0.112 | |
Distraction | ||
Cyclist | no | 0.119 |
Yes | 0.126 | |
Motorist | no | 0.119 |
Yes | 0.123 | |
Errors | ||
Cyclist | no | 0.118 |
Yes | 0.123 | |
Motorist | no | 0.117 |
Yes | 0.120 |
Bicycle Infrastructure | Yes | No |
---|---|---|
Bicycle | 0.057 | 0.447 |
Car | 0.022 | 0.513 |
Motorcycle | 0.052 | 0.447 |
Truck | 0.018 | 0.569 |
Bus | 0.023 | 0.486 |
Others | 0.024 | 0.571 |
Urban Zone | Urban Zone | Non-Urban (or major) |
Bicycle | 0.693 | 0.307 |
Car | 0.754 | 0.246 |
Motorcycle | 0.836 | 0.164 |
Truck | 0.466 | 0.534 |
Bus | 0.756 | 0.244 |
Others | 0.553 | 0.447 |
‘30 zone’ | Yes | No |
Bicycle | 0.093 | 0.520 |
Car | 0.108 | 0.503 |
Motorcycle | 0.110 | 0.530 |
Truck | 0.070 | 0.577 |
Bus | 0.105 | 0.537 |
Others | 0.080 | 0.614 |
KSI | Urban | Non-Urban |
---|---|---|
Car | 0.077 | 0.176 |
Motorcycle | 0.055 | 0.211 |
Truck | 0.141 | 0.325 |
Bus | 0.077 | 0.308 |
Others | 0.200 | 0.286 |
KSI | Zone 30 | Others |
Car | 0.079 | 0.110 |
Motorcycle | 0.058 | 0.093 |
Truck | 0.156 | 0.258 |
Bus | 0.083 | 0.149 |
Others | 0.206 | 0.248 |
KSI | Bicycle Infrastructure | No Bicycle Infrastructure |
---|---|---|
Collision involving motor vehicles | 0.086 | 0.118 |
Collision not involving motor vehicles | 0.096 | 0.136 |
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Aldred, R.; García-Herrero, S.; Anaya, E.; Herrera, S.; Mariscal, M.Á. Cyclist Injury Severity in Spain: A Bayesian Analysis of Police Road Injury Data Focusing on Involved Vehicles and Route Environment. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 96. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010096
Aldred R, García-Herrero S, Anaya E, Herrera S, Mariscal MÁ. Cyclist Injury Severity in Spain: A Bayesian Analysis of Police Road Injury Data Focusing on Involved Vehicles and Route Environment. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(1):96. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010096
Chicago/Turabian StyleAldred, Rachel, Susana García-Herrero, Esther Anaya, Sixto Herrera, and Miguel Ángel Mariscal. 2020. "Cyclist Injury Severity in Spain: A Bayesian Analysis of Police Road Injury Data Focusing on Involved Vehicles and Route Environment" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 1: 96. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010096
APA StyleAldred, R., García-Herrero, S., Anaya, E., Herrera, S., & Mariscal, M. Á. (2020). Cyclist Injury Severity in Spain: A Bayesian Analysis of Police Road Injury Data Focusing on Involved Vehicles and Route Environment. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(1), 96. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010096