A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model
AbstractThe prediction of evacuation demand curves is a crucial step in the disaster evacuation plan making, which directly affects the performance of the disaster evacuation. In this paper, we discuss the factors influencing individual evacuation decision making (whether and when to leave) and summarize them into four kinds: individual characteristics, social influence, geographic location, and warning degree. In the view of social contagion of decision making, a method based on Susceptible-Infective (SI) model is proposed to formulize the disaster evacuation demand curves to address both social influence and other factors’ effects. The disaster event of the “Tianjin Explosions” is used as a case study to illustrate the modeling results influenced by the four factors and perform the sensitivity analyses of the key parameters of the model. Some interesting phenomena are found and discussed, which is meaningful for authorities to make specific evacuation plans. For example, due to the lower social influence in isolated communities, extra actions might be taken to accelerate evacuation process in those communities. View Full-Text
Share & Cite This Article
Song, Y.; Yan, X. A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 986.
Song Y, Yan X. A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2016; 13(10):986.Chicago/Turabian Style
Song, Yulei; Yan, Xuedong. 2016. "A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 13, no. 10: 986.
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.