1. Introduction
Drought, as one of the severe effects of climate change, has caused significant damage to agricultural and rural communities [
1,
2]. Its impact on economic, social, and environmental conditions cannot be ignored [
3,
4], and it has been one of the major concerns for governments in developing countries. It is estimated that nearly 40 percent of the world population is strongly exposed to effects of drought in their access to water, crop production, migration, livelihoods, and food security [
5]. Drought affects the global food system [
6,
7,
8] and its impact on dimensions of food security is undeniable [
9]. According to the latest estimate of the World Food Organization in 2018, nearly 10% of the world’s population (770 million people), has been exposed to severe food insecurity [
10].
In regard to climate changes and increasing threats to food security, especially in developing countries, as well as in the capabilities of these countries to cope with this crisis, a different investigation using a new approach is crucial.
According to FAO reports (2016) [
11], the adaptation of smallholder farmers to climate change is critical to reducing global poverty and food insecurity. In other words, after many years, a new approach to food security has emerged that seeks to predict crises and cope with or adapt to a certain shock [
12,
13].
In recent years, there has been a shift from vulnerability to resilience through mitigating risks, increasing adaptability, diversifying livelihoods, enhancing communication, and making appropriate decisions [
14]. Resilience is defined as the ability to prevent hazards and crises, as well as to anticipate, absorb, adapt and improve them in a timely, adequate, and sustainable manner, including maintaining, storing, and improving livelihoods against threats to agriculture, nutrition, and food safety [
5].
The FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization), IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development) and the WFP (World Food Program) [
15], have developed a common approach to building resilience to improve food security and nutrition. According to the three organizations, collectively called the Rome-based agencies (RBA), resilience is essentially about the inherent capacities (abilities) of individuals, groups, communities, and institutions to withstand, cope, recover, adapt, and transform in the face of shocks.
The dimension of resilience includes changing thresholds while maintaining their function and basic structure, as well as self-organizing, learning and adapting capacity through coping and recovery after hardships and crises [
16]. It is important to point out that the inattention to the management and sustainability of food security and the food system [
17] and the neglect of resiliency [
12] against such dangers are recognized as the main reasons for vulnerability in rural households. The consequences of prolonged droughts in food insecurity to rural households implies farmers’ lack of readiness and resilience, as well as the inefficiency of crisis management systems, leading to a lack of capacity to cope with and face such changes.
Various studies focused on communities’ resiliency and emphasized the issues of social, economic, institutional, and environmental factors [
18,
19,
20,
21,
22,
23,
24,
25,
26]. Ciani [
27] showed that factors such as income and asset diversity, educational networks, strategic reserve of resources, and household livelihood strategies can significantly enhance the resiliency of rural households. Maleksaeedi and Karami [
16], pointed out that resiliency can be understood through the system response during and after the crisis. They provide a framework for determining the resiliency of rural households to water scarcity based on three factors, which included “adaptations to water scarcity”, “retaining structure and function”, and “retaining individual capabilities.” Alinovi and others [
12] designed an equation for assessing the resilience of rural households, including income and access to food, assets, public services, social safety nets, and adaptive capacity. Boukary and others [
28] examined resiliency in seven regions of Nigeria based on the determinants of food insecurity resiliency, including assets, adaptive capacity, social safety nets, and climate change. Kebede and others [
29], in order to analyze the ability of rural households to absorb the negative impacts of sudden shocks in Ethiopia, used a resilience analysis framework including agricultural and technology inputs, social safety networks, access to public services, access to income and food, assets, adaptive capacity, and stability.
Iran, with more than 1.5 million km
2, is known as the eighteenth largest country in the world, and has a population of around 80 million [
30]. In recent decades, Iran has faced drought and, according to the latest drought statistics based on the SPEI index, 97% of the country is prone toward drought. In the long-term scale, 8% of the country is under mild drought, 30% under moderate drought, 47% under severe drought, and 10% under total drought. [
31].
Agriculture is inherently sensitive to weather and climate conditions, and it is among the most vulnerable sectors to the risks related to global climate change [
32]. Prolonged drought in Iran led to loss of agricultural production and food shortages, with inadequate socio-economic entitlements and the exacerbated vulnerability of rural households [
33] that could greatly affect their agricultural income. Therefore, building and improving resilience is essential for rural households whose livelihoods depend on agriculture directly.
Several studies have addressed rural household drought and its negative impacts, such as the food insecurity in Iran, but research about ongoing adaptation strategies and the resilience approach to increase food security in the context of drought is limited. Regarding the multidimensional and complex nature of resiliency, the dominating challenge is to measure the resiliency of rural households and recognize its main determinants to food insecurity under drought. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a method to estimate resilience index, analyzes the most important components of household resiliency, examines whether the household resilience index is a good predictor of future food security recovery after a shock, develops a typology of rural household resiliency using cluster analysis, and investigates the main characteristics of the households in each cluster.
2. Materials and Methods
This study was conducted in Fars province, in southwest Iran (
Figure 1). This province is distinguished as one of the country’s leading agricultural regions, ranked first in wheat production with over 300 thousand hectares. The climate in the Fars province has been getting warmer and drier. This province has experienced several severe droughts in recent decades, which led to groundwater degradation and crop reduction [
34]. Average annual rainfall in Fars is approximately 294.7 mm (1971–2014), which is about 70% lower than the worldwide average (11). During the period 2009 to 2018, a large area of Fars province (85%) suffered from intense and very intense droughts [
31]. Furthermore, according to the National Food and Nutrition Security System, Fars province is in a relatively food-insecure status, due to the low level of household resilience against it [
35].
Rural households of Fars province were the target population. A multistage stratified random sampling technique was used, and sample size was determined based on the formula suggested by Schaeffer and others [
36]. Initially, six counties with severe and total drought [
31] were selected. In each selected county, a proportional number of sub-counties were randomly selected, and a proportional sample of villages was then randomly selected from each sub-county. In the final stage, a random sample of rural households was selected in each village, depending on the number of households in the village. In all, 6 counties and 25 villages were included in sample. The final sample consisted of 258 households in severe and total drought regions, out of 270 rural households under consideration. Household heads, who are the main decision-makers in the household, were considered as the respondents. Data was collected using a survey method consisting of a questionnaire. To examine the reliability of questionnaire, a pilot study was conducted on 30 rural households in a region outside of the study area, and Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for the items in Likert-type scales were computed at 0.87. The questionnaire was modified based on the pilot and respondents in the pre-test. A panel of experts confirmed the face validity of the questionnaire items. Data were analyzed using SPSS
21 and AMOS
23 software. Descriptive statistics, confirmatory factor analysis and an SEM (structural equation model) were used to analyze the data.
Resiliency Measurement
In order to measure the resiliency variable, the FAO Alleviation Index was used [
12,
37], which included six factors: income and food access, access to basic services, assets, social safety net, adaptive capacity, and stability. The equation for measuring this variable is as follows:
where Ri is Resilience index, IFA is income and food access, A is assets, ABS is access to basic services, SSN is Social Safety Nets, AC is adaptive capacity and S is stability. Hence, the resilience index is the weighted sum of the factors generated, and specified as:
where W
j is the weight of variable j, and F
j is the factor under consideration of variable j. The weights are the proportions of variance explained for each factor.
Details of these indicators are given below (
Table 1).
In this equation, “resilience” is estimated as a hidden variable based on 6 factors provided by the FAO. These six factors were measured through 51 questions that were selected through an extensive review of the literature and in-depth interviews with rural households living in the study area. Self-rating scale questions were designed that required the respondents to indicate the accuracy of each question based on a 5-point Likert- type scale (1 = very low, 5 = very high). Then, after localizing the questions and deleting some, with an item total correlation coefficient of 0.3 or less from the scale, 27 questions were finalized.
4. Conclusions
The purpose of this study was to examine the determinants of rural household resiliency toward food insecurity based on six indicators (income and food access, access to basic services, assets, social safety net, adaptive capacity, and stability), derived from the FAO resilience index by Alinovi [
13].
The results showed that the model presented in this research had a high predictability of resilience among rural families. This model provides a standard framework for assessing the ability of rural households to cope with and recover from shocks related to drought. The findings also indicated that the most important factor in determining household resiliency was stability. In fact, due to changing nature of drought in long term, the stability of households is an important factor to improving their resiliency.
A classification of households revealed two groups: high- and low-resilience rural households. The findings show that these two groups of rural households had different characteristics. According to findings, high resilient rural households had better educational levels, income diversity, employment status, land ownership, crop variety, water access, livestock and asset ownership, access to extensions, and use of adaptation strategies.
One strategy that can strengthen the ability of rural households to be more resilient is to offer them more financial assistance such as low interest rates or credit. This will give them more opportunities to be involved in non-farm activities.
In general, although the topic of resiliency with respect to food insecurity is a new issue, the present study tried to address this limitation and the results of this study would provide an appropriate framework for other researchers to follow up this issue in the future.
Due to the gradual nature of the drought, there are also potential limitations in the generalization of findings from this study to other contexts in the future. The results of this research may be of relevance to other less developed rural areas where most of the income comes from agriculture.
Further studies are also needed to recognize the concept of resilience to food insecurity under drought condition across geographical, economic, and sociocultural contexts.