Application of Entropy Method to Quantify Future Ecological Flow in the Yellow River Basin
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Entropy Theory
2.2. Entropy-Based Flow Duration Curve
3. Data
4. Results
4.1. Validation of FDC with the Observed Data
4.2. Prediction of Future FDCs
4.3. Predicted Ecological Flow
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
- The simulated FDCs from the H08 and DBH models show good agreement with each other and fit observation well. The decadal FDC at each station is generally predicted to be higher or to stay in the higher range under both RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, implying a future increase in the volume of water.
- It is noted that the rates of increase in high flows and low flows are different, and at most stations, high flows increase much faster than low flows. As a result, the predicted FDCs have larger slopes than the references due to the larger M values in the future.
- At most of the stations, the future values of Q95 and Q90 will safely exceed the threshold. However, the number of days with flow lower than the threshold may be more than 5% and 10%, indicating a certain risk of ecological flow. It is found that there will be no or little threat to future ecological flow at the Lanzhou, Wubao, Longmen, and Huayuankou stations, but the ecological requirement is not always satisfied at the Toudaoguai and Sanmanxia stations.
- Water stress at the Tangnaihai station from the upper stream of the Yellow River may be threatened in the future. The FDCs of the Tangnaihai station show the least increase, with the number of days with flow lower than Q90 exceeding 20% and the number of days with flow lower than Q95 exceeding 15%, which is 2–3 times higher than the requirement. This indicates that water stress may be further exacerbated in the upstream area.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Stations | Location | Record Length | Annual Mean Streamflow (m3/s) | Lowest Value (m3/s) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tangnaihai (TNH) | Upstream | 1961–2012 | 638.81 | 87.10 |
Lanzhou (LZ) | Upstream | 1967–2012 | 941.48 | 285.58 |
Toudaoguai (TDG) | Upstream | 1961–2012 | 618.41 | 65.55 |
Wubao (WB) | Midstream | 1961–2012 | 667.42 | 68.68 |
Longmen (LM) | Midstream | 1961–2012 | 732.50 | 120.17 |
Sanmenxia (SMX) | Midstream | 1961–2012 (missing 2006) | 888.06 | 111.41 |
Huayuankou (HYK) | Downstream | 1961–2012 | 1008.37 | 126.88 |
Station | Qmax (m3/s) | Qmin (m3/s) | R2 * | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DBH | H08 | Obs. | DBH | H08 | Obs. | DBH | H08 | |
TNH | 1890.49 | 1900.57 | 1904.07 | 231.22 | 240.16 | 254.07 | 0.899 | 0.895 |
LZ | 2507.88 | 2504.04 | 2630.16 | 385.82 | 367.01 | 393.04 | 0.956 | 0.929 |
TDG | 1887.16 | 2043.32 | 2102.30 | 170.11 | 155.06 | 150.27 | 0.896 | 0.864 |
WB | 1980.74 | 2022.15 | 2086.77 | 200.51 | 245.91 | 212.53 | 0.908 | 0.865 |
LM | 2144.30 | 2281.19 | 2287.47 | 251.14 | 262.73 | 227.78 | 0.889 | 0.868 |
SMX | 3499.19 | 3320.21 | 3197.39 | 117.85 | 251.04 | 199.76 | 0.881 | 0.864 |
HYK | 3116.28 | 3391.48 | 3268.97 | 331.53 | 262.17 | 313.10 | 0.885 | 0.866 |
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Wang, X.; Cui, H. Application of Entropy Method to Quantify Future Ecological Flow in the Yellow River Basin. Entropy 2022, 24, 72. https://doi.org/10.3390/e24010072
Wang X, Cui H. Application of Entropy Method to Quantify Future Ecological Flow in the Yellow River Basin. Entropy. 2022; 24(1):72. https://doi.org/10.3390/e24010072
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Xinru, and Huijuan Cui. 2022. "Application of Entropy Method to Quantify Future Ecological Flow in the Yellow River Basin" Entropy 24, no. 1: 72. https://doi.org/10.3390/e24010072
APA StyleWang, X., & Cui, H. (2022). Application of Entropy Method to Quantify Future Ecological Flow in the Yellow River Basin. Entropy, 24(1), 72. https://doi.org/10.3390/e24010072