Search Results (6)

This paper explores a high-dimensional stochastic SIS epidemic model characterized by a mean-reverting, stochastic process. Firstly, we establish the existence and uniqueness of a global solution to the stochastic system. Additionally, by constructing a series of appropriate Lyapunov functions, we confirm the presence of a stationary distribution of the solution under $R_0^s>1$. Taking 3D as an example, we analyze the local stability of the endemic equilibrium in the stochastic SIS epidemic model. We introduce a quasi-endemic equilibrium associated with the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic system. The exact probability density function around the quasi-stable equilibrium is determined by solving the corresponding Fokker–Planck equation. Finally, we conduct several numerical simulations and parameter analyses to demonstrate the theoretical findings and elucidate the impact of stochastic perturbations on disease transmission. Full article

Controlling infectious diseases has become an increasingly complex issue, and vaccination has become a common preventive measure to reduce infection rates. It has been thought that vaccination protects the population. However, there is no fully effective vaccine. This is based on the fact that it has long been assumed that the immune system produces corresponding antibodies after vaccination, but usually does not achieve the level of complete protection for undergoing environmental fluctuations. In this paper, we investigate a stochastic SIS epidemic model with incomplete inoculation, which is perturbed by the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and Brownian motion. We determine the existence of a unique global solution for the stochastic SIS epidemic model and derive control conditions for the extinction. By constructing two suitable Lyapunov functions and using the ergodicity of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of stationary distribution, which means the disease will prevail. Furthermore, we obtain the exact expression of the probability density function near the pseudo-equilibrium point of the stochastic model while addressing the four-dimensional Fokker–Planck equation under the same conditions. Finally, we conduct several numerical simulations to validate the theoretical results. Full article

The advent of the Internet of Things brought a new age of interconnected device functionality, ranging from personal devices and smart houses to industrial control systems. However, increased security risks have emerged in its wake, in particular self-replicating malware that exploits weak device security. Studies modeling malware epidemics aim to predict malware behavior in essential ways, usually assuming a number of simplifications, but they invariably simplify the single most important subdynamics of malware: random propagation. In our previous work, we derived and presented the first exact mathematical model of random propagation, defined as the subdynamics of propagation of a malware model. The propagation dynamics were derived for the SIS model in discrete form. In this work, we generalize the methodology of derivation and extend it to any Markov chain model of malware based on random propagation. We also propose a second method of derivation based on modifying the simplest form of the model and adjusting it for more complex models. We validated the two methodologies on three malware models, using simulations to confirm the exactness of the propagation dynamics. Stochastic errors of less than 0.2% were found in all simulations. In comparison, the standard nonlinear model of propagation (present in ∼95% of studies) has an average error of 5% and a maximum of 9.88% against simulations. Moreover, our model has a low mathematical trade-off of only two additional operations, being a proper substitute to the standard literature model whenever the dynamical equations are solved numerically. Full article

We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density functions, were duly computed. Our models take into account the adoption of lockdown measures as well as the crucial role of hospitals and health care institutes. To accomplish this work we adopt a kinetic-type reaction approach where the modelling of the lockdown measures is obtained by introducing a new mathematical basis and the intensity of the stochastic noise is derived by statistical mechanics. We analysed two scenarios: the stochastic $SIS$-model (Susceptible ⇒ Infectious ⇒ Susceptible) and the stochastic $SIS$-model integrated with the action of the hospitals; both models take into account the lockdown measures. We show that, for the case of the stochastic SIS-model, once the lockdown measures are removed, the Coronavirus infection will start growing again. However, the combined contributions of lockdown measures with the action of hospitals and health institutes is able to contain and even to dampen the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. This result may be used during a period of time when the massive distribution of vaccines in a given population is not yet feasible. We analysed data for USA and France. In the case of USA, we analysed the following situations: USA is subjected to the first wave of infection by Coronavirus and USA is in the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The agreement between theoretical predictions and real data confirms the validity of our approach. Full article

In this paper, we applied a fractional multi-step differential transformed method, which is a generalization of the multi-step differential transformed method, to find approximate solutions to one of the most important epidemiology and mathematical ecology, fractional stochastic SIS epidemic model with imperfect vaccination, subject to appropriate initial conditions. The fractional derivatives are described in the Caputo sense. Numerical results coupled with graphical representations indicate that the proposed method is robust and precise which can give new interpretations for various types of dynamical systems. Full article

This paper deals with an infective process of type SIS, taking place in a closed population of moderate size that is inspected periodically. Our aim is to study the number of inspections that find the epidemic process still in progress. As the underlying mathematical model involves a discrete time Markov chain (DTMC) with a single absorbing state, the number of inspections in an outbreak is a first-passage time into this absorbing state. Cumulative probabilities are numerically determined from a recursive algorithm and expected values came from explicit expressions. Full article