Search Results (5)

In recent years, the influence of extreme weather patterns has led to an alarming increase in the frequency and severity of sub-surface forest fires in boreal forests. The Ledum palustre-Larix gmelinii forests of the Daxing’an Mountains of China have emerged as a hotspot for sub-surface fires, and terrain slope has been recognized as a pivotal factor shaping forest fire behavior. The present study was conducted to (1) study the effect of terrain slope on the smoldering temperature and spread rate using simulated smoldering experiments and (2) establish occurrence probability prediction model of the sub-surface fires’ smoldering with different slopes based on the random forest model. The results showed that all the temperatures with different slopes were high, and the highest temperature was 947.91 °C. The spread rates in the horizontal direction were higher than those in the vertical direction, and the difference increased as the slope increased. The influence of slope on the peak temperature was greater than that of spread rate. The peak temperature was extremely positively correlated with the slope, horizontal distance and vertical depth. The spread rate was extremely positively correlated with the slope. The spread rate in the vertical direction was strongly positively correlated with the depth, but was strongly negatively correlated with the horizontal distance; the horizontal spread rate was opposite. The prediction equations for smoldering peak temperature and spread rate were established based on slope, horizontal distance, and vertical depth, and the model had a good fit (p < 0.01). Using random forest model, we established the occurrence prediction models for different slopes based on horizontal distance, vertical depth, and combustion time. The models had a good fit (AUC > 0.9) and high prediction accuracy (accuracy > 80%). The study proved the effect of slope on the characteristics of sub-surface fire smoldering, explained the variation in peak temperature and spread rate between different slopes, and established the occurrence prediction model based on the random forest model. The selected models had a good fit, and prediction accuracy met the requirement of the sub-surface fire prediction. Full article

A sub-surface forest fire is a type of smoldering combustion with a slower spread rate, longer combustion time, and lower combustion temperature compared with flame combustion. Sub-surface fires are usually accompanied by surface fires, and the surface fires’ conversion from sub-surface fires has great uncertainty. Therefore, there are considerable difficulties in monitoring and fighting sub-surface fires. However, there are few studies on the conversion from sub-surface fires to surface fires, and the mechanism and influencing factors of the conversion remain unclear. This study focuses on Larix gmelinii forests, which are representative of the boreal forest of China and hot spots of sub-surface fires, studies the moisture content limit of sub-surface fires’ conversion to surface fires by simulating a smoldering experiment, and establishes a monitoring model of sub-surface fires and an occurrence probability prediction model of sub-surface fires’ conversion to surface fires. The results showed that the moisture content limit of the conversion was 25% in the grass–Larix gmelinii forest and Ledum palustre–Larix gmelinii forest and 20% in Rhododendron dauricum–Larix gmelinii forest. There was a significant positive correlation between the time and temperature caused by the smoldering. The monitoring model of the sub-surface fires based on the surface temperature and moisture content had a good fitting effect (p < 0.01). The occurrence probability prediction model of the sub-surface fires’ conversion to surface fires, based on a logistic regression model, had high prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.987). The lower the moisture content of the humus, the closer the smoldering came to the surface and the higher the probability of conversion. This research could contribute to the study of the mechanism of sub-surface fires’ conversion into surface fires. Full article

A sub-surface forest fire is a kind of fire that spreads slowly with no flames and lower temperatures, and threatens the ecosystem and human life. The moisture content of humus is considered to be an important factor in determining fire occurrence and sustaining. The humus of the Larix gmelinii in the Daxing’an Mountains was selected for the experiment, the limit moisture content condition of sub-surface forest fires was determined by an experiment simulating smoldering, and the prediction model of the probability of sub-surface forest fire occurrence was established. The results will be of great significance for the prevention, monitoring, and fighting of sub-surface forest fires in the boreal forest. The results showed that when the moisture content of humus in the upper layer was low, the smoldering process could be self-sustaining at 20%. For deeper layers of a depth of 18 cm, this increased to 30% moisture content of the humus and was the critical depth for sub-surface fires. The moisture content of 40% was a limit to burning where smoldering can only last for a short duration and is then extinguished. When the moisture content of the humus was 20%, the smoldering temperature was higher and the rate of spread was faster, with smoldering being maintained for longer periods at 30% moisture content. The regression prediction model of the highest temperature and vertical rate of spread in a column of humus was correlated to moisture content and depth, and the model significance was good at p < 0.01. Based on moisture content and depth, the occurrence probability prediction model of sub-surface fires has a good correlation (R² = 0.93) and high prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.995). The effect of moisture content (Or = 4.008) on the occurrence probability of sub-surface fires is higher than that of depth (Or = 2.948). The results point out that it is necessary to prevent and monitor the occurrence of sub-surface fires when the humus moisture content is less than 40%. In order to reduce the risk of sub-surface fires, the monitoring time of the fire field should be extended after the fire is extinguished due to the slow-burning process of the sub-surface fire. Increasing the moisture content of the humus is an important method to reduce the probability and restrain the spread of sub-surface fires. Full article

Subsurface fires and smoldering events at landfills can present serious health hazards and threats to the environment. These fires are much more costly and difficult to extinguish than open fires at the landfill surface. The initiation of a subsurface fire may go unnoticed for a long period of time and undetected fires may spread over a large area. Unfortunately, not all landfill operators keep or publish heat elevation data and many landfills are not equipped with a landfill gas extraction system to control subsurface temperatures generated from the chemical reactions within. The timely and cost-effective identification of subsurface fires is an important and pressing issue. In this work, we describe a method for using satellite thermal infrared imagery at a moderate spatial resolution to identify the locations of subsurface fires and monitor their migration within landfills. The focus of this study was the Bridgeton Sanitary Landfill in Bridgeton, MO, USA where a subsurface fire was first identified in 2010 and continues to burn today. Observations from Landsat satellites over the last seventeen years were examined for surface temperature anomalies (or hot spots) that may be associated with subsurface fires. The results showed that the locations of hot spots identified in satellite imagery match the known locations of the subsurface fires. Changes in the hot-spot locations with time, as determined by in situ measurements, correspond to the spreading routes of the subsurface fires. These results indicate that the proposed approach based on satellite observations can be used as a tool for the identification of landfill subsurface fires by landfill owners/operators to monitor landfills and minimize the expenses associated with extinguishing landfill fires. Full article

We develop a simulation model for prediction of forest canopy interception of upwelling fire radiated energy from sub-canopy smouldering vegetation fires. We apply this model spatially across the North American boreal forest in order to map minimum detectable sub-canopy smouldering fire size for three satellite fire detection systems (sensor and algorithm), broadly representative of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). We evaluate our results according to fire management requirements for “early detection” of wildland fires. In comparison to the historic fire archive (Canadian National Fire Database, 1980–2017), satellite data with a 1000 m pixel size used with an algorithm having a minimum MWIR channel BT elevation threshold of 5 and 3 K above background (e.g., MODIS or SLSTR) proves incapable of providing a sub-0.2 ha smouldering fire detection 70% and 45% of the time respectively, even assuming that the sensor overpassed the relevant location within the correct time window. By contrast, reducing the pixel area by an order of magnitude (e.g., 375 m pixels of VIIRS) and using a 3.5 K active fire detection threshold offers the potential for successfully detecting all fires when they are still below 0.2 ha. Our results represent a ‘theoretical best performance’ of remote sensing systems to detect sub-canopy smoldering fires early in their lifetime. Full article