Search Results (44)

This study presents a flood risk assessment of five rural bridges along the monsoon-prone Khar–Mohmand Gat corridor in Northwestern Pakistan using an integrated hydrologic and hydraulic modeling framework. Hydrologic simulations for 50- and 100-year design storms were performed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), with watershed delineation conducted via Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Calibration was based on regional rainfall data from the Peshawar station using a Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) of 86 and time of concentration calculated using Kirpich’s method. The resulting hydrographs were used in two-dimensional hydraulic simulations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) to evaluate water surface elevations, flow velocities, and Froude numbers at each bridge site. The findings reveal that all bridges can convey peak flows without overtopping under current climatic conditions. However, Bridges 3 to 5 experience near-critical to supercritical flow conditions, with velocities ranging from 3.43 to 4.75 m/s and Froude numbers between 0.92 and 1.04, indicating high vulnerability to local scour. Bridge 2 shows moderate risk, while Bridge 1 faces the least hydraulic stress. The applied modeling framework effectively identifies structures requiring priority intervention and demonstrates a practical methodology for assessing flood risk in ungauged, data-scarce, and semi-arid regions. Full article

Carbonatites, which are rare mantle-derived igneous rocks that are mainly enriched in carbonate minerals and host relatively higher amounts of rare earth element (REE)-bearing phases, remain subjects of extensive geological research due to their enigmatic origin and potential economic importance. This study aims to describe the petrographic, mineralogical, and some rare-earth element (REE) abundances of four carbonatite bodies (known as Sillai Patti, Loe Shilman, Warsak, and Jambil) exposed in the Peshawar Plain Alkaline Igneous Province (PPAIP), northwestern Himalaya, Pakistan, to identify their economic potential. The observed petrographic, textural features, and chemical compositions of the constituent minerals of the carbonatites were utilized to elucidate the evolutionary processes through which the rocks evolved. The results indicate distinct mineralogical assemblages dominated by calcite, dolomite, apatite, pyroxene, biotite, and feldspar, with accessory opaque and REE-bearing phases, such as pyrochlore, monazite, and britholite. The apatite grains display compositional zoning reflecting their growth under magmatic conditions. The petrographic features of apatite in some carbonatite samples, exhibiting preferred orientation in a particular direction and spongy or murky textures, indicate that the studied rocks underwent post-magmatic deformation or hydrothermal alteration. Calcite and dolomite, coexisting in some carbonatite samples, exhibit significant Mg-Fe variation, which is possibly related to magmatic differentiation. The pyroxene compositions vary from a low-calcium enstatite–ferrosilite series to high-calcium diopside, suggesting variable crystallization environments among the carbonatite bodies studied. The abundance of REE-bearing phases in the studied carbonatites emphasizes their high economic potential. These findings indicate that the PPAIP carbonatites originated from mantle-derived magmas and subsequently experienced metamorphic/metasomatic overprinting during their tectonic evolution. The abundance of REE-rich phases such as apatite, pyrochlore, monazite, and britholite underscores their high economic potential. Full article

Cyclone Mocha, classified as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS), followed an unusual northeastward trajectory while exhibiting a well-defined eyewall structure. It experienced rapid intensification (RI) before making landfall along the Myanmar coast. It caused heavy rainfall (~90 mm) and gusty winds (~115 knots) over the coastal regions of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) countries, such as the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. The factors responsible for the RI of the cyclone in lower latitudes, such as sea surface temperature (SST), tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), vertical wind shear (VWS), and mid-tropospheric moisture content, are studied using the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) SST and National Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Unified Model (NCUM) global analysis. The results show that SST and TCHP values of 30 °C and 100 (KJ cm⁻²) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) favored cyclogenesis. However, a VWS (ms⁻¹) and relative humidity (RH; %) within the range of 10 ms⁻¹ and >70% also provided a conducive environment for the low-pressure system to transform into the ESCS category. The physical mechanism of RI and recurvature of the Mocha cyclone have been investigated using forecast products and compared with Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) satellite observations. The key results indicate that a dry air intrusion associated with a series of troughs and ridges at a 500 hPa level due to the western disturbance (WD) during that time was very active over the northern part of India and adjoining Pakistan, which brought north-westerlies at the 200 hPa level. The existence of troughs at 500 and 200 hPa levels are significantly associated with a Rossby wave pattern over the mid-latitude that creates the baroclinic zone and favorable for the recurvature and RI of Mocha cyclone clearly represented in the NCUM analysis. Moreover the Q-vector analysis and steering flow (SF) emphasize the vertical motion and recurvature of the Mocha cyclone so as to move in a northeast direction, and this has been reasonably well represented by the NCUM model analysis and the 24, 7-, and 120 h forecasts. Additionally, a quantitative assessment of the system indicates that the model forecasts of TC tracks have an error of 50, 70, and 100 km in 24, 72, and 120 h lead times. Thus, this case study underscores the capability of the NCUM model in representing the physical mechanisms behind the recurving and RI over the BoB. Full article

Anaplasmosis is an infectious disease transmitted by ticks and caused by obligate intracellular pathogen of belonging to genus Anaplasma Infections of one-humped camels (Camelus dromedarius) and llamas (Lama glama) have been reported previously. The aim of this study was to investigate the seroprevalence and risk factors of anti-Anaplasma spp. antibodies in Camelus dromedarius of the Punjab, Pakistan. A cross-sectional study was conducted during 2017–2018 to study the seroprevalence of anaplasmosis in Camelus dromedarius of 13 districts in Punjab province of Pakistan and to assess the associated risk factors including age, breed, gender, body condition score, tick infestation, location, season and management type. Serum samples from 728 camels (433 females and 295 males) were examined for anti-Anaplasma antibodies using a commercially available competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) test kit. A univariable analysis was conducted and extended to multivariate logistic regression to find potential risk factors associated with the disease. Overall, the seroprevalence of anti-Anaplasma antibodies was 8.5% (8.5%, CI 6.6–10.8) with 62 positives in 728 camels. The highest seroprevalence was recorded for camels of the Central Punjab districts (16.1%, CI 11.5–21.7) followed by those of the Northwestern (5.4%, 2.8–9.3) and Southern Punjab (5.2%, 2.9–8.4) districts (p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that location (Central Punjab: OR 2.78, p = 0.004), season (summer: OR 7.94, p = 0.009), body condition score (BCS 2: OR 14.81, p = 0.029) and tick infestation (OR 38.59, p < 0.001) are potential risk factors in the corresponding camel populations. The results showed that the camel population in Pakistan is seropositive for Anaplasma spp. The geographical zone, season, body condition and tick infestation were identified as significantly associated risk factors for seroprevalence of anaplasmosis in dromedary camels. To the best of our knowledge, the results of this current study provide the first evidence of exposure of camels to anaplasmosis in Pakistan. Molecular investigations in the future are highly recommended to determine the dynamics of the disease in camels. Full article

Ethnobotanical studies on foraging are essential for documenting neglected or previously unknown wild food plants, which may be crucial for promoting the diversification of food sources and contributing to food security and sovereignty. The Pashtuns of the Marwat tribe in NW Pakistan are renowned for their traditional customs and food systems. Studying the wild food plants (WFPs) and their associated bio-cultural diversity is quintessential for fostering food security and sovereignty in the region. The research presented here investigated the area’s wild food plants traditionally gathered and consumed. The field survey was conducted in 2023 with 87 study participants. A total of 41 plant species belonging to 24 botanical families was documented. The findings include food uses for Atriplex tatarica, Amaranthus graecizans, and Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima that have rarely been recorded in Pakistan. Moreover, the use of Citrulus colocynthus fruits in jam and Zygophyllum indicum leaves and stems in beverages are novel contributions to the gastronomy of NW Pakistan. The comparison with other food ethnobotanical studies conducted in North Pakistan suggests some similarities between the Lakki Marwat traditional WFPs and those from other semi-arid areas in North Pakistan, both Pashtun and non-Pashtun. While the findings underline the significant role of WFPs in local cuisine, we observed that this local knowledge is also threatened: the rapid spread of fast and industrialized food, modernization, and cultural dilution has led to an alarming reduction in these practices among the younger generations. Therefore, suitable measures to safeguard traditional plants, food knowledge, practices, and the associated culture are urgently needed. The urgency of this situation cannot be overstated, and it is crucial that we act now. Furthermore, preserving wild food plant-related cultural heritage may be fundamental to promoting food security and public health. Full article

Constraining the collision timing of India and Asia requires reliable information from the coeval geological record along the ~2400 km long collisional margin. This study provides insights into the India–Asia collision at the westernmost margin of the Indian Plate using combined U-Pb geochronological data and sandstone petrography. The study area is situated in the vicinity of Fort Munro, Pakistan, along the western margin of the Indian Plate, and consists of the Paleocene Dunghan Formation and Eocene Ghazij Formation. The U-Pb ages of detrital zircons from the Dunghan Formation are mainly clustered between ~453 and 1100 Ma with a second minor cluster between ~1600 and 2600 Ma. These ages suggest that the major source contributing to the Dunghan Formation was likely derived from basement rocks and the cover sequence exposed mainly in Tethyan Himalaya (TH), Lesser Himalaya (LH), and Higher Himalayan (HH). Petrographic results suggest that the quartz-rich samples from the Dunghan Formation are mineralogically mature and have likely experienced log-distance transportation, which is possible in the case of an already established and well-developed river system delivering the sediments from the Craton Interior provenance. Samples of the overlying Ghazij Formation show a major detrital zircon age clustered at ~272–600 Ma in the lower part of the formation, comparable to the TH. In the middle part, the major cluster is at ~400–1100 Ma, and a minor cluster at ~1600–2600 Ma similar to the age patterns of TH, LH, and HH. However, in the uppermost part of the Ghazij Formation, ages of <100 Ma are recorded along with 110–166 Ma, ~400–1100 Ma, and ~1600–2600 Ma clusters. The <100 Ma ages were mainly attributed to the northern source, which was the Kohistan-Ladakh arc (KLA). The ~110–166 Ma ages are possibly associated with the TH volcanic rocks, ophiolitic source, and Karakoram block (KB). The Paleozoic to Archean-aged zircons in the Ghazij Formation represent an Indian source. This contrasting provenance shift from India to Asia is also reflected in the sandstone petrography, where the sample KZ-09 is plotted in a dissected arc field. By combining the U-Pb ages of the detrital zircons with sandstone petrography, we attribute this provenance change to the Asia–India collision that caused the provenance shift from the southern (Indian Craton) provenance to the northern (KLA and KB) provenance. In view of the upper age limit of the Ghazij Formation, we suggest the onset of Asian–Indian collision along its western part occurred at ca. 50–48 Ma, which is younger than the collision ages reported from central and northwestern segments of the Indian plate margin with 70–59 Ma and 56 Ma, respectively. Full article

The Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) stands out among the four surviving species of Asian pangolins, being the sole species present in Pakistan and listed as endangered owing to trafficking and illicit commerce. In the present study, we explored the population status of the Indian pangolin and the existing suitable habitats in Nowshera district, Pakistan. We employed the line transect method to confirm the species presence and subsequent population estimation. In a survey effort of 156 km², a total of 56 signs of Indian pangolin were recorded within the research area. Amongst the 56 signs, 46 were burrows (living burrows (53.57%) and feeding burrows (28.57%)). Digging was observed nine (16.07%) times, along with one direct sighting (1.7%). Our results revealed a population estimate of only 29 pangolins in the Nowshera district, with a population density of 0.013 individuals/km². Later, MaxEnt was applied to the species’ presence points, along with climatic and topographical variables. The MaxEnt model accuracy was good (AUC = 0.811). Of the total area studied, 210 km² (12.01%) were highly suitable and 238 km² (13.61%) were moderately suitable habitat for the Indian pangolin. To safeguard the fragile population and habitat of the Indian pangolin, we highly suggest strengthening watch and ward and law enforcement in the study area. By adopting a comprehensive approach that addresses both the direct threats to Indian pangolins and the underlying factors driving their decline, we can effectively protect this endangered species and ensure the preservation of its essential habitats for robust conservation. Full article

Infestations of pests are perhaps an anthropogenic catastrophe for trees. Aeolesthes sarta (Sart longhorned beetle—SLB) is one of the most severe pests that cause serious damage to a number of hardwood tree species, i.e., Populus, Salix, Acer, Juglans, and Malus. To investigate people’s attitudes towards pest damage cost and future control extent of SLB, a door-to-door method was adopted to survey two major cities (Quetta—QU and Peshawar—PE) of the northwestern region of Pakistan where this pest has caused severe damage. Respondents were asked about SLB pest knowledge, pest damage costs, preferences for control choices, and program extent. According to respondents, more trees (181 ± 1.20 trees/ha/annum) were damaged in QU compared to PE. Populus spp. was the dominant tree genre that attacked and damaged the most. Around 85% of respondents from both cities stated the pest damage cost was calculated as high for QU (480,840.80 ± 4716.94$/annum) compared to PE. Respondents in both locations strongly supported (more than 82%) biological control of future SLB outbreaks. They all agreed that protecting ecologically vulnerable places and wildlife habitats should be the primary priority in a future SLB outbreak. Respondents from both cities who preferred to protect more land area in future SLB outbreaks were calculated to be high for QU (61%) compared to PE (58%). However, city variations in opinions regarding forest-type priority that should be protected and control options were observed. Socio-demographic characteristics were discovered to impact pest damage cost positively, as well as preferred SLB control extent. The findings of this study can help policymakers and forest managers develop publicly permissible pest control plans and make more accurate predictions about future pest outbreaks. Full article

Land use land cover (LULC) changes have emerged as a pivotal driver of environmental challenges in the Northwestern mountainous belts of Pakistan. These changes are increasingly recognized for their pervasive impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The conversion of pastures and rangelands into other land uses is a key facet of LULC change, posing a substantial threat to the availability of animal feed sources. This study aims to evaluate LULC changes and investigate their consequences on animal feed sources in the Upper Kurram Valley, located in the Koh-e-Safid mountain of Northwestern Pakistan. The study employs a multidisciplinary methodological approach that incorporates remotely sensed data, focus group discussions, interviews, and field observations. The study findings uncover a notable decline in rangeland (26.6%) and forest cover (28.7%) over a span of more than three decades (1987–2019). The shrinkage of rangeland has spurred an increased reliance on crop residues and fodder crops. The free grazing practices have been replaced by stall-feeding and controlled grazing methods. This declining rangeland resources has negatively affected animal husbandry, and the average number of livestock per household decreased from 32 in 1980 to 3.7 in 2019. In essence, this transition has not only impacted animal feed sources but also reshaped the livelihoods of local communities closely connected to animal husbandry. Full article

In Northwestern Pakistan’s rice-based cropping systems, the prevalent reliance on inorganic nitrogen fertilizers (INF) has led to insufficient nitrogen (N) contributions from soil organic manures (OM). This study aims to evaluate the impact of organic sources (OS), including animal manures (AM) and crop residues (CR), on crop growth rates (CGR) in a rice-wheat rotation. A two-year field experiment involving hybrid rice (Oryza sativa L., Pukhraj) was conducted in Batkhela, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Various OS and inorganic-N (urea) combinations were applied, emphasizing their influence on CGR. The findings highlight poultry manure (PM) application as the most impactful on CGR, while wheat straw (WS) application resulted in the lowest CGR among the six OS investigated. Additionally, the use of AM showcased superior CGR compared to CR. In the initial year, the highest CGR occurred, with 75% of N sourced from urea and 25% from OS. In the second year, a balanced 50% N application from each source yielded the highest CGR. Urea and PM demonstrated the most robust CGR among OS combinations, while urea and WS yielded the lowest. Notably, onion leaves, a cost-effective option, delivered promising results comparable to berseem residues, indicating their potential as organic manure, especially in sulfur-deficient soils. These findings underscore the viability of onion residue management as a cost-effective alternative to ammonium sulfate fertilizers with global applicability. The abstract recommends promoting organic sources, particularly poultry manure and onion leaves, alongside inorganic-N fertilizers to enhance CGR and reduce dependence on costly alternatives. However, further research and field trials are necessary to explore the long-term impacts of these organic sources on soil health, nutrient cycling, and the sustainability of rice-based cropping systems in Northwestern Pakistan and beyond. In conclusion, this study investigates the influence of organic sources on CGR in rice-wheat rotations, emphasizing the superiority of poultry manure and onion leaves. The findings highlight cost-effective alternatives to conventional fertilizers, emphasizing the need for further research to validate long-term sustainability and applicability beyond the study area. Full article

Water ingress is a common and costly problem in tunnel construction, and understanding the hydrogeological characteristics of a site is crucial for mitigating its effects. This study presents a detailed analysis of the water ingress problems experienced during the construction and operation stages of the Lowari Tunnel in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, and evaluates the suitability of the water for various purposes. The study found that the water quality varied significantly, depending on the geological conditions and water quantity, with the south portal of the tunnel dominated by Mg cations and bicarbonate anions. The water was found to be suitable for tunnel support systems, including concrete and steel installations, with negligible corrosion observed over the study period. However, the water coming out of the tunnel at the south portal was found to be unsuitable for drinking due to its low pH value. The Wilcox plot classified the water samples as excellent for irrigation, which could benefit local agriculture in the area. The findings of this study can provide valuable insights into the hydrogeological characteristics of the Lowari Tunnel, contributing to the design and construction of similar infrastructure projects in the region. Furthermore, these insights can help improve access to safe and reliable water sources for local communities. Full article

Winter (December to March) precipitation is the major source of rainfed agriculture, storage, and perennial water flow in the western river system of Pakistan. Hence, this study uses precipitation data and variables of land–ocean and atmosphere from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and fifth-generation reanalysis data (ERA5), respectively, to investigate the changes in winter precipitation and its sensitivity to different land–ocean and atmosphere variables, which are rarely investigated in Pakistan. Non-parametric techniques, such as the modified Mann–Kendal, Sen slope, kernel density-based probability function (PDF), empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and correlation analysis, were used to assess the changes and modes of variability in winter precipitation. The overall seasonal precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend with a (−0.1 mm d⁻¹ yr⁻¹) in the seasonal mean and monthly precipitation, except in February which showed a significant increase (>0.11 mm d⁻¹ yr⁻¹). The highest decrease in daily precipitation (<−0.1 mm d⁻¹ yr⁻¹) was in the north, with a moderate decrease in the southeast. The extreme precipitation indices exhibited an erratic decreasing tendency, but the maximum daily precipitation index increased; post-2000 precipitation extremes displayed an increase, and the seasonal and monthly precipitation exhibited the highest deviations during the drought period (1995–2000). The leading precipitation mode (EOF1) is sensitive to the local land surface processes and significantly correlated (>0.60) with the central Pacific and Indian Ocean’s basin-wide sea surface temperature, corroborating the influence of ENSO-induced meridional/zonal deviation of Hadley–Walker circulations. The Hadley and Walker cells affect the south-westerlies’ jet stream strength, impacting the water vapor transport and precipitation over Pakistan. These changes in the precipitation magnitude will affect rain-fed agriculture, especially the Rabi cropping pattern and perennial river flow. Full article

The unprecedented and long-lasting abnormal monsoon rainfall attacked Pakistan in the summer of 2022, causing severe flooding. This study investigated the sub-seasonal characteristics and mechanisms of this distinctively extreme precipitation event. The historical rainfall in July and August and extreme precipitation mainly occurred in northern Pakistan. Both the monthly rainfall in July and August 2022 and the extreme precipitation during the summer were far exceeding the historical record and involved unique spatial distribution. The rainfall in July 2022 is nationwide and mainly located in northern Pakistan, while the rainfall in August and extreme precipitation occurred in southern Pakistan. Different physical processes are responsible for the precipitation in July and August 2022. In July, the South Asian high (SAH) and Iranian high extended eastward. Meanwhile, the anticyclonic circulation anomalies occurred in northwestern Pakistan and the easterly winds enhanced in the south side of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which strengthened water vapor transporting from the Bay of Bengal and cooperated with the cyclonic system over the Arabian Sea to enhance the precipitation over Pakistan. In August, the SAH further extended eastward and the Western Pacific Subtropical High extended westward to the TP. Meanwhile, the European blocking (EB) developed, and a deep trough appeared over northwestern Pakistan. This weakened the easterly flow along southern TP but enhanced the southerly flow accompanying the cyclone over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, and thus guided the water vapor transporting to southern Pakistan and enhanced the precipitation. The extreme precipitation in July was mainly attributed to the unusually strong Indian monsoon, while the extreme precipitation in August was the result of a combination of the Indian monsoon and EB. The study provided important information about extreme precipitation in Pakistan, which will help policymakers take measures to deal with the effects of flooding. Full article

Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae), commonly known as parthenium weed, is a highly invasive weed spreading rapidly from northern to southern parts of Pakistan. The persistence of parthenium weed in the hot and dry southern districts suggests that the weed can survive under more extreme conditions than previously thought. The development of a CLIMEX distribution model, which considered this increased tolerance to drier and warmer conditions, predicted that the weed could still spread to many other parts of Pakistan as well as to other regions of south Asia. This CLIMEX model satisfied the present distribution of parthenium weed within Pakistan. When an irrigation scenario was added to the CLIMEX program, more parts of the southern districts of Pakistan (Indus River basin) became suitable for parthenium weed growth, as well as the growth of its biological control agent, Zygogramma bicolorata Pallister. This expansion from the initially predicted range was due to irrigation producing extra moisture to support its establishment. In addition to the weed moving south in Pakistan due to irrigation, it will also move north due to temperature increases. The CLIMEX model indicated that there are many more areas within South Asia that are suitable for parthenium weed growth, both under the present and a future climate scenario. Most of the south-western and north-eastern parts of Afghanistan are suitable under the current climate, but more areas are likely to become suitable under climate change scenarios. Under climate change, the suitability of southern parts of Pakistan is likely to decrease. Full article

This study reports the detrital zircon U–Pb ages of the post collisional Chitarwatta Formation, exposed along the western margin of the Indian plate at the Sulaiman fold–thrust belt (SFB), Pakistan. The Chitarwatta Formation overlies the shallow marine carbonate sequence of the Kirthar Formation and represents an Oligocene–Miocene transitional marine sequence. The sequence consists of sandstone, siltstone, and mudstone. The sandstone consists predominantly (79–82%) of quartz grains. The framework grains are sub-angular to sub-rounded and show recycled orogenic provenance. The detrital zircon U–Pb age data show the dominant population between 390 Ma and ~1100 Ma, which is ~70% of the total population. In addition to this, a significant percentage of the younger detrital ages exist between ~40 Ma and ~120 Ma. This younger age cluster indicates the northern sources, including the Kohistan–Ladakh arc (KLA) and Karakoram block (KB), whereas the provenance for the 390–1100 Ma detrital zircon is likely the Higher Himalaya (HH), with contribution from Tethyan Himalaya (TH). This post-collisional scenario suggests that the Chitarwatta Formation received detritus from the northern sources through a drainage system, named as the Indus drainage system. A comparison with the coeval units in the north (Murree Formation, Dagshai Formation, and Dumre Formation) suggests that the sediments may have been delivered through the same drainage system that shares similar detritus. Relying on the contribution of the HH detritus, we propose that the HH uplifted during the Oligocene–Miocene along the Main Central Thrust (MCT) and provided detritus to the foreland basin. Full article