Search Results (7)

The dual-credit policy has increased the complexity of the automotive supply chain. This study constructs a game model and uses reverse induction to explore the impact of the dual-credit policy on production and cooperative R&D. The results show that compared with no dual-credit policy, the dual-credit policy may not be able to promote improvement of the fuel economy, the development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, and cooperative research and development (R&D). The policy effects are related to other parameters. Meanwhile, increasing control of the dual-credit policy can suppress the scale of fuel vehicles (FVs), but has little effect on the level of fuel economy improvement. Additionally, the impact on the intensity of NEV production and cooperative R&D needs to be discussed within a specific threshold. Manufacturers can obtain policy dividends by adjusting their operational strategies. The government can quantify the effect of policies through production supervision and flexibly adjust the intensity of regulation, to build a green and win–win automotive supply chain. Full article

The corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) and new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy (2021–2023) was officially released in June 2020. As a mandatory regulation for automobile manufacturers to produce new energy vehicles, its impact on the output of new energy vehicles needs to be systematically evaluated. In this study, we build an enterprise policy compliance model to simulate the dual-credit policy requirements for the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 under different scenarios. The results show that the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 is required to reach 1.78 to 3.97 million under different scenarios. Three factors, i.e., switching from New Europe Driving Cycle (NEDC) to World Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) fuel consumption improvement of conventional vehicles, and credit per new energy vehicle, have a more significant impact on the new energy vehicle production than others. Under the minimum guarantee scenario, a 10% change in the above three factors will lead to a 2.5%, 1.5%, and 0.5% reduction in the production requirement for new energy vehicles. Full article

The national targets of reaching carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 propose higher requirements for energy conservation and emission reduction of China’s automobile industry. As an important measure for the government, the fuel consumption and new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy system has a significant impact on the Chinese and even the global vehicle market. Considering the lack of a systematic evaluation model for China’s fuel consumption and NEV credit regulations, this study establishes a hierarchical optimization decision-making model based on technology frontier curves and a multi-dimension database containing extensive data of technologies, products, and enterprises in the Chinese market to simulate and evaluate the technology compliance and policy impact under multiple regulations. The results show that, from the perspective of the technology frontier curve, gasoline technologies still have great cost-effectiveness advantages when the fuel-saving requirement is less than 46%, and the space for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REVs) is gradually shrinking due to the cost reduction of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). BEV400 will be better than PHEV70 and REV100 when the fuel-saving requirement is higher than 79%. Diesel vehicles are always not competitive in the passenger car market. In terms of the compliance of corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) regulation, the start-stop technology will be gradually phased out and mild hybrid electric vehicles will be rapidly introduced due to their high cost-effectiveness in 2025. With the tightening of regulations, the penetration rate of BEVs and PHEVs will be 23.7% and 6.7%, respectively, and mild hybrid electric vehicles will be gradually replaced by strong hybrid electric vehicles in 2030. By 2035, the penetration rate of BEVs and PHEVs will be 43.6% and 6% further. For the CAFC and NEV credit regulation (widely known as the dual credit regulation), the single-vehicle credit poses a greater impact on the penetration of NEVs than corporate credit percentage limitation and is the key factor that should be focused on. The NEV credit limitation in the dual credit regulation could push ‘poor performance’ automakers to produce the required number of NEVs and meet the bottom line. However, in the long term, when compared to the CAFC regulation, the dual credit regulation is more lenient, due to NEVs being able to get double benefits both on NEV credit and CAFC credit, and NEV credit can also unidirectionally compensate CAFC credit under the dual-credit policy context. With the increased penetration and cost reduction of NEVs, the ‘averaging’ effect of dual credit regulation will inhibit the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Therefore, eliminating the connection between NEV credit and CAFC credit or only leaving the CAFC and the fuel consumption limit regulations in the future will be better for the long-term development of the energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry. Full article

The large sales volume and a great number of passenger car ownership in China have brought a series of environmental and energy problems. In response to these problems, Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Dual-credit Regulation has been put forward in China. However, it is found that although the purpose of the Dual-credit Regulation is controlling the fuel consumption and promoting the development of the energy vehicle market, the fuel consumption restriction for fossil-fueled passenger cars is relaxed compared to CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) regulation alone. Moreover, this effect of relaxation is more obvious when the market share of new energy vehicles increases. To quantitatively estimate the relaxation effect of the fuel consumption restriction, a method of quantifying the relaxation effect is designed, and three different scenarios of new energy vehicle market development have been presumed in this paper. It is found that there are three main factors related to new energy vehicles that cause the relaxation of fuel consumption restriction, and the effect might become obvious and severe after 2025 if the market share of new energy vehicles develops very rapidly. These results may affect the development of the automotive industry and needed to be concerned. Full article

China is well known for its determination on large-scale vehicle electrification, which currently is mainly driven by fuel economy and electric vehicle policies mixed with the extensive charging infrastructure support and monetary incentives from the government. This study adopted the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model 2020 version, a vehicle policy analysis tool developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in order to systematically quantify the potential impacts of the “Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation”, which is a revised version released in June 2020 for the timeframe 2021–2023, the so-called dual credit policy (2021–2023). It was found that, under the dual credit policy (2021–2023), the sales of hybrid electric vehicles could reach 0.91 million by the end of 2023, which would increase much faster than they did in 2018–2020. The annual sales share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could reach 11.7%, and the PEV stocks could achieve 11.70 million by the end of 2023 if it keeps the expansion to the level of how it was in 2017. In addition, the BEVs with long electric range (such as 400 km) and the plug-in hybrid electric SUVs could be the most popular PEV types. Full article

The switching from new European driving cycle (NEDC) to worldwide harmonized light vehicles test procedure (WLTP) will affect the energy consumption of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and then affect the new energy vehicle (NEV) credit regulation and subsidy policy for PHEVs. This paper reveals the impact on energy consumption, NEV credit regulation, and subsidy policy for PHEV in the Chinese market of the switching from NEDC to WLTP based on qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation. The results show that the WLTP procedure is stricter than NEDC in the determination of road load, test mass, driving resistance forces, and tire selection. Firstly, the electricity consumption (EC) of PHEV in charge-depleting mode (CD) under the WLTP procedure is 26% higher than NEDC on average, which makes the all-electric range (AER) significantly lower under WLTP. The weight EC tested in the WLTP procedure is higher than NEDC. Secondly, the fuel consumption (FC) of PHEV in CD mode is related to the adjustment of the engine management system (EMS) and the size of battery energy under the WLTP procedure. For the FC in the charge-sustaining (CS) mode of PHEV under the WLTP procedure is 20% higher than NEDC on average. However, the weight fuel consumption of PHEVs under WLTP with a long AER may be lower than that of NEDC due to the characteristics of utility factor in the WLTP procedure. Thirdly, most PHEVs fail to meet the requirements of 50 km AER due to the switching of the test procedures. However, the Chinese government reduced the technical specification of PHEV’s AER under the WLTP procedure to 43 km to support the development of PHEV technology. It ensures that the switching of test procedures does not change the treatment that they could obtain, the NEV credits, and subsidy as a NEV in China. However, the increasing of the EC in CD mode and the FC in CS mode under the WLTP procedure makes the PHEV obtain lower credit and subsidy multiple compared with NEDC procedure. Full article

With the phasing down of subsidies, China has launched the new energy vehicle (NEV) credit regulation to continuously promote the penetration of electric vehicles. The two policies will coexist through 2020 and definitely pose a dramatic impact on the development of the Chinese and even the global electric vehicle market. However, few studies have systematically investigated the relationship between the two policies as well as the synergistic impacts during the overlap period. This paper interprets the rationales of China’s subsidy policy and NEV credit regulation and establishes a bottom-up model to estimate the synergistic impacts of the two policies on the technological trends of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from the perspective of credit cost-effectiveness. The results suggest that the subsidy policy still maintains strong support for the development of electric vehicles in China. For small BEVs whose driving ranges are higher than 300 km, subsidies even account for 40–50% of the manufacturing cost. In addition, we conclude that the two policies will complement each other in the transitional period and small BEVs are preferred by both policies. Under the NEV credit regulation, 350 km will consistently be the optimal driving range, which will definitely limit the development of other ranges. With the addition of the subsidy, the limitation will be amended in the short run. However, the effect of the subsidy is decreasing and is going to be canceled after 2020, so the focus should be on the optimization of the NEV credit regulation. Full article