Search Results (47)

This paper presents an enhanced hub location model tailored to port–hinterland logistics planning, grounded in the Capacitated Multiple-Allocation Hub Location Problem (CMAHLP). The formulation incorporates nonlinear cost structures, hub-specific operating costs, adaptive capacity constraints, and a feasibility condition based on the Social Net Present Value (NPVsocial) to support the design of intermodal freight networks under asymmetric spatial and socio-environmental conditions. The empirical case focuses on Spain, leveraging its strategic position between Asia, North Africa, and Europe. The model includes four major ports—Barcelona, Valencia, Málaga, and Algeciras—as intermodal gateways connected to the 47 provinces of peninsular Spain through calibrated cost matrices based on real distances and mode-specific road and rail costs. A Genetic Algorithm is applied to evaluate 120 scenarios, varying the number of active hubs (4, 6, 8, 10, 12), transshipment discounts (α = 0.2 and 1.0), and internal parameters. The most efficient configuration involved 300 generations, 150 individuals, a crossover rate of 0.85, and a mutation rate of 0.40. The algorithm integrates guided mutation, elitist reinsertion, and local search on the top 15% of individuals. Results confirm the central role of Madrid, Valencia, and Barcelona, frequently accompanied by high-performance inland hubs such as Málaga, Córdoba, Jaén, Palencia, León, and Zaragoza. Cities with active ports such as Cartagena, Seville, and Alicante appear in several of the most efficient network configurations. Their recurring presence underscores the strategic role of inland hubs located near seaports in supporting logistical cohesion and operational resilience across the system. The COVID-19 crisis, the Suez Canal incident, and the persistent tensions in the Red Sea have made clear the fragility of traditional freight corridors linking Asia and Europe. These shocks have brought renewed strategic attention to southern Spain—particularly the Mediterranean and Andalusian axes—as viable alternatives that offer both geographic and intermodal advantages. In this evolving context, the contribution of southern hubs gains further support through strong system-wide performance indicators such as entropy, cluster diversity, and Pareto efficiency, which allow for the assessment of spatial balance, structural robustness, and optimal trade-offs in intermodal freight planning. Southern hubs, particularly in coordination with North African partners, are poised to gain prominence in an emerging Euro–Maghreb logistics interface that demands a territorial balance and resilient port–hinterland integration. Full article

This study explores the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth (EG), and ecological footprint (EF) in Poland’s top 18 energy-importing countries from 2000 to 2022. While the energy-growth-environment nexus is well-studied, limited attention has been paid to how a single major energy-exporting country influences sustainability in its trade partners, a gap this study aims to fill. A panel dataset was constructed using five key variables: real GDP per capita, Poland’s fuel exports, ecological footprint per capita, renewable energy consumption, and primary energy consumption per capita. Methodologically, the study employs panel cointegration techniques, including FMOL and DOLS estimators for long-run analysis, as well as the VECM and Granger causality tests for the short run. The study’s main contribution lies in its novel focus on Poland’s export influence and the application of advanced econometric models to examine long-run and short-run effects. Results indicate a stable long-run cointegration relationship. Specifically, a 1% increase in renewable energy use is associated with a 0.0219% rise in GDP per capita. Additionally, Poland’s fuel exports and ecological footprint positively impact growth, whereas primary energy use is statistically insignificant. These findings offer practical implications for policymakers in Poland and its trading partners aiming to align energy trade with sustainability goals. Full article

The Visegrád Group (V4), as China’s key economic and trade partner in Central and Eastern Europe, plays a pivotal role in enhancing the effectiveness of sustainable development within the China-Central and Eastern Europe cooperation (China-CEEC) framework through its comprehensive green initiatives. This study analyzes export data and environmental product classifications from major countries in the CEPII-BACI database, covering the period from 2003 to 2022, to construct a green product space network. The analysis reveals the evolutionary patterns of the green industry and the collaborative transformation mechanisms between China and the V4 countries. The findings indicate the following: (1) The green product space network displays a “core-periphery” structural framework, wherein China has expanded its core product offerings by leveraging technological advancements in the photovoltaic sector, while the V4 countries enhance their resource allocation by systematically phasing out peripheral products. (2) The Green Complexity Index (GCI) suggests that China’s green production capacity has significantly improved, thereby narrowing the technological gap with Poland and Slovakia. (3) According to the Green Competition Index, a strategic complementary space exists between the two parties in the domain of medium- to high-complexity products. This study recommends extending green cooperation to higher value chain segments by establishing a collaborative innovation network for green technologies, developing a dynamic capacity optimization mechanism, and deepening the joint research and development of core products. This article offers a decision-making framework based on production capacity endowments to facilitate multinational collaborative transformations in the green industry. Full article

Saudi Arabia implements a wide range of non-tariff measures on imports and exports. Different research articles have quantified the effect of non-tariff measures on trade, but their effect on Saudi Arabia has not been quantified. The major objective of this paper is to quantify the effect of non-tariff measures on the imports of Saudi Arabia. Panel data from 2000 to 2022 for four major regions trading with Saudi Arabia are used to estimate the panel ARDL gravity model. The results of the bound test confirm the presence of a long-run association between the model variables. In the long-run, the per capita income of Saudi Arabia is the main determinant of imports. In contrast, in the short-run the per capita income has no influence, and the non-tariff measures have a negative effect on import value. At the cross-sectional level, the results confirm the negative effect of non-tariff measures on the selected trade partners with varying degrees. The results ascertain the detrimental effect of the application of technical and non-technical measures on Saudi Arabia’s imports. We recommend policymakers in Saudi Arabia adopt a more transparent policy of NTMs application that leads to a sustainable supply of goods and services and ensures sustainable trade. Full article

The global corn trade is an important pillar of the agricultural economy, but its supply chain is vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and market volatility. As one of the major importers of corn in the world, China has long relied on the United States and Ukraine, and the risk of import concentration is prominent. The complicated international situation intensifies the external uncertainty of China’s import supply chain. This study utilized bilateral trade data from 2010 to 2023 and employed advanced methodologies including complex network modeling, network index quantification, and simulation analysis to assess the impacts of external risks from major trading partners on China’s corn import system and trace risk transmission pathways. The research objectives focused on examining the structural evolution of China’s corn import trade network over the past decade, evaluating its resilience against external shocks, and identifying the critical roles played by key node countries in risk propagation mechanisms. The results showed that the resilience of China’s corn import trade network had been enhanced in recent years and that the complementarity of planting cycles in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and the adjustment of trade structure caused by the Russia–Ukraine conflict had improved its risk resistance. The United States, France, Romania, and Turkey were key intermediate nodes in risk transmission due to their geographical advantages and trade hub statuses. The risk transmission path presented regional heterogeneity. China should strengthen trade with countries in the Southern Hemisphere and built a more stable import system by taking advantage of complementary resource endowments and growth periods. Bilateral agreements with transit countries could ensure security of supply. Reserve centers and modern logistics infrastructure should be built in key areas. In addition, platforms such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership could promote harmonized standards and digital support for corn trade, and regional financial instruments and supply chain optimization could have balanced risks. Full article

This paper investigates whether trade frictions, in the form of exchange controls, are among the main obstacles preventing the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis from being valid among trading nations. It specifically looks at whether exchange controls—a type of trade friction—hinder PPP’s applicability in the relationship between an emerging economy, South Africa, and its major trading partners, classified by their use of exchange control regulations. The methodology used to test the PPP hypothesis includes nonlinearity through quantile unit root tests and quantile cointegration, designed to capture the varied economic conditions across trading nations. The empirical findings indicate that trade frictions may not necessarily obstruct the validity of the PPP hypothesis. Moreover, the weak form of the PPP hypothesis predominantly appears at the extreme quantiles of the real exchange rate among trading nations, especially the lower quantile, which is associated with the real exchange rate depreciation of the South African economy. This insight is significant for both policymakers and investors. Full article

This study proposes a data-driven approach to leveraging large-scale COVID-19 datasets to enhance the predictive modeling of disease spread in the early stages. We systematically evaluate three machine learning models—ARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM—using a comprehensive framework that incorporates time-series analysis, multivariate data integration, and a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique to assess model performance. The study focuses on key features such as daily confirmed cases, geographic variations, and temporal trends, while considering data constraints and adaptability across different scenarios. Our findings reveal that LSTM and ARIMA consistently outperform Prophet, with LSTM achieving the highest predictive accuracy in most cases, particularly when trained on 20-week datasets. ARIMA, however, demonstrates superior stability and reliability across varying time frames, making it a robust choice for short-term forecasting. A direct comparative analysis with existing approaches highlights the strengths and limitations of each model, emphasizing the importance of region-specific data characteristics and training periods. The proposed methodology not only identifies optimal predictive strategies but also establishes a foundation for automating predictive analysis, enabling timely and data-driven decision-making for disease control and prevention. This research is validated using data from New Zealand and its major trading partners—China, Australia, the United States, Japan, and Germany—demonstrating its applicability across diverse contexts. The results contribute to the development of adaptive forecasting frameworks that can empower public health authorities to respond proactively to emerging health threats. Full article

Global food supply chains face mounting vulnerabilities due to climate change and environmental variability, with particularly severe implications for import-dependent nations like Qatar, where over 90% of food supplies rely on international trade. This high import dependency creates unique challenges, including supply disruptions, price volatility, and food security risks, especially as climate variability increasingly affects major food-exporting regions. This study develops a multi-objective optimization framework to enhance the resilience of Qatar’s food import system by integrating economic, environmental, and crop water requirement considerations, modeled as a stochastic variable. The framework addresses both average performance and worst-case scenarios using stochastic and robust optimization approaches, evaluating trade partners for three key crops—tomatoes, onions, and cucumbers. Results identify optimal suppliers that minimize costs, environmental emissions, and water usage variability, with Turkey contributing 42.10% of total imports, Iran 13.76%, and the Netherlands 9.52%. The findings demonstrate that a diversified import strategy significantly reduces vulnerability to climate-induced disruptions and improves supply chain stability. This research provides actionable insights for policymakers, including; (1) optimal supplier diversification targets to balance risk and efficiency, (2) specific trade partner recommendations based on multiple sustainability criteria, and (3) quantitative frameworks for assessing import portfolio resilience. Full article

This study investigates the integration of the Indonesian stock market with eight major trading partner countries, namely, China, Japan, the United States, Malaysia, India, Singapore, the Philippines, and South Korea. The analysis of the stock-market integration investigation includes the following two main things: short-term and long-term dynamic relationships within the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model framework based on the unit root test, multivariate Johansen cointegration, and paired Granger causality test. The VAR model was analyzed using weekly closing index data of the Indonesian stock exchange and eight major trading partners from January 2013 to June 2024. The results of the study show that the integration of the Indonesian stock market with those of its main trading partners in the long term is relatively low. This finding implies that investors from the eight major trading partner countries can diversify their portfolios in international investments via the Indonesian stock market and vice versa. In the short term, these results prove that Indonesia’s stock markets and those of its major trading partners are integrated, excluding China. The Chinese stock market has become segmented and more attractive for Indonesian investors who want to benefit from diversification and vice versa. Furthermore, the Indonesian stock market has two-way causal relationships with the US, Japanese, Indian, and Singaporean stock markets. In addition, the Indonesian stock market has unidirectional reciprocal-lagged relationships with Malaysia and the Philippines. An essential contribution of this study is helping policymakers and, especially, international investors understand the dynamic relationships of the Indonesian stock market with its major trading partners. Furthermore, this study contributes to the development of empirical literature on the comovement of the Indonesian stock market and those of its major trading partners, as well as the stock markets of developing and developed countries. Full article

This study analyzes the patent landscape of Saudi Arabia from the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 in late April 2016 to September 2024, utilizing the Patsnap database to evaluate patent grants across various organizations. The findings reveal a gradual increase in patent registrations, with Saudi Aramco leading in patent grants, followed by King Faisal University (KFU), King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), and King Abdulaziz University (KAU). SABIC, a prominent industry player in Saudi Arabia, has registered most of its patents using its European Head Office address and holds extensive collaborations with international partners, generating numerous patents. The analysis identifies the top patent offices where KSA organizations seek protection, including the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), Saudi Authority for Intellectual Property (SAIP), European Patent Office (EPO), the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA), and the German Patent and Trade Mark Office. However, the limited number of registrations at the SAIP highlights a need for improvement. The primary application domains encompass borehole/well accessories, measurement devices, organic chemistry, computing, and chemical/physical processes. The landscape reveals that Saudi Aramco and KFUPM focus predominantly on upstream and downstream technologies, while KAU, KFU, and KAUST concentrate on life sciences. Key findings indicate a significant increase in patent activity since the vision announcement, suggesting a growing focus on innovation within Saudi Arabia. However, the concentration of patents among a few major players (Saudi Aramco and SABIC) and the underrepresentation of patents filed with the Saudi Authority of Intellectual Property (SAIP) highlight areas for improvement. This study emphasizes the necessity to support small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and healthcare research institutions to foster broader participation in innovation and protect novel technologies. This research contributes valuable insights into the current state of patenting activities in Saudi Arabia and outlines opportunities for enhancing the country’s innovation ecosystem. Full article

An international rules system on digital trade that can satisfy multilateral interest appeal has not been formed yet despite the rapid growth of digital services trade. Using the panel data of 39 countries from 2010 to 2019, this study applied the stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze the influence of five types of barriers to digital services trade on the export efficiency of digital services. The research results show that infrastructure and connectivity barriers had no significant effect on the export efficiency of digital services. The barriers to electronic transactions and other barriers that affected the trade of digital services were conducive to improving the export efficiency of digital services. In contrast, the barriers to payment systems and intellectual property rights had a restraining effect on the export efficiency of digital services. The results also show that most countries were more efficient when exporting digital services to their major trade partner countries, which indicates a demand-driven characteristic. Based on these conclusions, we propose five recommendations that are helpful to enhance the export efficiency of digital services. Full article

Agricultural water productivity is crucial for sustainability amidst the escalating demand for food. Cereals are pivotal in providing nutritious food at affordable prices. This study was based on Ghanaian data spanning from 1992 to 2021 to evaluate water usage in the cultivation of major cereals. It also examined the virtual water losses or gains in cereal trade alongside influencing factors. The analysis utilized secondary data encompassing the virtual water content, production quantity, export and import quantities, distance, GDP per capita, population, and land per capita of Ghana and its 75 trade partners. In the last 5 years, crop water use (CWU) reached an average of 7.08 billion m³/yr for maize, 3.48 billion m³/yr for rice, 1.08 billion m³/yr for sorghum, and 0.63 billion m³/yr for millet production. Ghana’s major partners for exported virtual water (EVW) were Niger, Burkina Faso, South Africa, and Togo. Major partners for imported virtual water (IVW) were Argentina, South Africa, Ukraine, Togo, Russia, Burkina Faso, Canada, Senegal, Nigeria, Portugal, UK, Niger, and the USA. The Panel Least Squares Method of regression was used to apply the Gravity Model principle in assessing influencing factors. The findings indicate that Ghana is a net importer of virtual water in the cereal trade, with significant influences from geographical distance, GDP per capita, population, land per capita, and cereal water use. Full article

The European Union (EU) and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) free trade agreement (FTA) aims to increase regional trade and major integration between the regions; after decades of negotiations, in 2019, finalization of the agreement was reached. However, there are several blockages from both parties in the ratification process: whilst few EU members the criticize environmental and sustainability issues within the agreement, the Mercosur partners oppose the imposition of sustainability standards onto the region without adequate financial support. On this topic, the literature is still too poor to build a systematic literature review; thus, the present analysis follows a quasi-historical approach considering the major steps of the EU–Mercosur FTA looking both at the scientific and gray literature. The study underlines how environmental and sustainability issues are at the core of the European policies; thus, themes such as deforestation and pesticides could be a dealbreaker in the ratification of the agreement. For the EU, the FTA with Mercosur could mark a new step in the race towards it being a new “global standard” for sustainability and production. Full article

Geopolitical conflicts and power games among major nations present substantial challenges to cross-border trade and global economic development; however, the existing literature has paid limited attention to the role of geopolitical risk in agricultural exports, especially the underlying macroimpact mechanisms from the perspective of agricultural land. This paper utilizes China’s agricultural export data spanning 1995–2020 to empirically investigate the influence of geopolitical risk on China’s agricultural exports and unveil its specific internal mechanisms. The findings reveal that China’s agricultural exports are negatively affected when its trading partners are exposed to geopolitical risk. Notably, trading partners’ agricultural land is instrumental in mitigating the adverse effects of geopolitical risk on China’s agricultural exports. Moreover, a heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of geopolitical risk on China’s agricultural exports is more significant in non-Belt and Road countries than in Belt and Road countries. Given China’s status as one of the world’s major agricultural exporting nations, the results of this study hold significant importance in proactively addressing and alleviating the impact of geopolitical risks on both Chinese and global agricultural exports. Full article

This article examines bilateral trade relations between the two important countries of South Asia, India and Sri Lanka, in light of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISFTA). The analysis period spans the years 1995 to 2020. The primary analysis found that bilateral trade has been sluggish and that the SAFTA and ISFTA agreements have had no discernible effect on these two countries’ bilateral trade performance. The causes of lackluster trade performance were investigated using the “revealed comparative advantage” and the “trade complementarity” indices. Clear evidence was found demonstrating that the reason for the bilateral trade’s consistent lackluster performance is due to both countries’ lack of revealed comparative advantage in the majority of product groups, followed by export similarity in the product groups where they do have a comparative advantage. The findings also confirm the suspicion of many observers that they are competitors rather than natural trading partners. Although any substantial future increase in their bilateral trade is improbable and fanciful, the paper reflects on methods of strengthening bilateral trade. Full article