Search Results (9)

Background/Objectives: Europe’s demographic shift is putting increasing pressure on long-term care (LTC) systems and raising concerns about the sustainability of LTC financing. In this paper, we analyse Austria’s LTC system, particularly its universal long-term-care allowance (LTCA), and aim to project LTCA expenditure under different future scenarios. Methods: We use a dynamic microsimulation model to project LTCA expenditure under four scenarios up to the year 2080. Combining LTCA statistics with pooled data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we estimate care needs and prevalence rates across all seven care allowance levels. This enables us to project both public spending and individual lifetime costs, disaggregated by sex and education. Results: Although total LTCA expenditure is projected to rise due to population ageing, scenario comparisons show that compositional shifts—such as higher educational attainment, which is linked to lower care needs and gains in healthy life expectancy accompanying mortality improvements—can significantly mitigate cost growth. The projected total expenditure increases range from 29% in a scenario where increasing life expectancy—as assumed in official population projections—is neglected to 185% in a scenario accounting for rising life expectancy but no future health gains. The findings also highlight the impact of longevity and education on the distribution of individual lifetime costs. Conclusions: Beyond its policy implications for LTC planning, this study demonstrates the advantages of dynamic microsimulation in capturing individual-level heterogeneity, offering a significant improvement over traditional macrosimulation approaches. Full article

The air transportation industry is challenged to address airport curbside delay problems that affect landside service quality and can potentially impact check-in operations. Methodological advances guided by industry requirements are needed to support curbside improvement studies. Existing methods require verification of assumptions prior to application or need expensive surveys to acquire data for use in microsimulations. A probability-based macrosimulation method is advanced for the evaluation of the level of service and capacity of the curbside processor. A key component of the method is the simulation of the stochastic balance of demand and available curb space for unloading/loading tasks using the Monte Carlo simulation model. The method meets the planning and operation requirements with the ability to analyze conditions commonly experienced at the curb area. Example applications illustrate the flexibility of the method in evaluating existing as well as planned facilities of diverse designs and sizes. The developed method can contribute to curbside processor delay reduction and due to the macroscopic nature of the method, the data requirements can be met by an airport authority without costly surveys. Full article

Urban transportation systems are increasingly strained by population growth, changing mobility patterns, and the need for sustainable infrastructure planning. The accurate modeling of urban trip generation is critical for effective and sustainable transportation planning, especially in the context of rapidly growing urban populations and evolving travel behaviors. This study investigated the application of advanced statistical methods and artificial intelligence-based techniques for forecasting urban travel demand. Erzincan, with a population of approximately 200,000, serves as a representative mid-sized city, offering valuable insights for transportation planning and traffic management. Data collected from various user groups, including households and university students, provide a comprehensive understanding of local travel behavior. Four predictive modeling techniques, linear regression, Poisson regression, negative binomial regression, and artificial neural networks (ANNs), were applied to the dataset, followed by a comparative performance evaluation. Additionally, a macro-level simulation was conducted using VISUM (Release 18.2.22) software to evaluate the current transportation network and assess the potential impacts of proposed improvement scenarios. The results show that the ANN model provided the highest predictive accuracy for household-based data (R² = 0.62), while the linear regression model yielded the best results for dormitory-based data (R² = 0.95). Furthermore, Poisson regression proved most effective in estimating the minimum trip generation time, which was estimated to be 22.77 min under simulated conditions. The study offers practical insights for transport planners and policymakers by demonstrating how predictive analytics and simulation tools can be integrated to address urban mobility challenges. Full article

Background/Objectives: Whole grain consumption is recognized as a key component of healthy diets, offering protection against non-communicable diseases, including type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, in Japan, whole grain intake remains low, with brown rice—a traditional whole grain—underutilized despite its demonstrated health benefits. This study aimed to explore the health and economic impacts of increasing brown rice consumption among Japanese adults aged 40–79 years. Methods: Using a discrete-time Markov cohort macro-simulation model, we projected the effects of replacing 30% and 80% of mean white rice consumption with brown rice over 10 years. Input parameters were based on published epidemiological data and national healthcare expenditures. Key outcomes included cumulative T2D incidence, all-cause mortality, and associated healthcare costs. Results: Increasing brown rice consumption could prevent 1.3–3.4% of new T2D cases, avert 0.01–0.02% of all-cause deaths, and save from USD 31.3 million to USD 80.5 million in healthcare costs. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the relative risk of T2D associated with brown rice intake had the greatest influence on variabilities in projected cost savings. Conclusions: Although the projected reductions in T2D and healthcare costs were modest, the findings highlight the potential of increased brown rice consumption to alleviate the economic and public health burden of T2D in Japan. Incorporating brown rice into dietary patterns may support multidisciplinary lifestyle approaches for T2D prevention. Further research is warranted to explore long-term care costs for the management of complications and the benefits of other whole grains in the Japanese diet. Full article

This paper explores the possibility of applying simulation models formalized in the macrosimulation approach to predict the effects from the presence of automated vehicles in our cities. It is based on the use of a robust equilibrium assignment model allowing us to obtain multiclass traffic flows, including automated vehicles (AVs) and conventional ones (CVs) on large real-sized road networks. This modelling framework has been successfully applied to the road network of the metropolitan area of Rome, allowing us to assess the effects of AVs in future traffic at increasing penetration rates and the effects of possible transport policies involving AVs. Full article

Free sugars are a major source of calories in diets and contribute to the burden of many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends reducing free sugars intake to less than 10% of total energy. This study aimed to estimate the number of diet-related NCD deaths which could be averted or delayed if Canadian adults were to reduce their calorie intake due to a systematic 20% reduction in the free sugars content in foods and beverages in Canada. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) to estimate the potential health impact. An estimated 6770 (95% UI 6184–7333) deaths due to diet-related NCDs could be averted or delayed, mostly from cardiovascular diseases (66.3%). This estimation would represent 7.5% of diet-related NCD deaths observed in 2019 in Canada. A 20% reduction in the free sugars content in foods and beverages would lead to a 3.2% reduction in calorie intake, yet an important number of diet-related NCD deaths could be averted or delayed through this strategy. Our findings can inform future policy decisions to support Canadians’ free sugars intake reduction, such as proposing target levels for the free sugars content in key food categories. Full article

Background: The number of Korean older people receiving informal care is expected to rise sharply due to aging population. This study makes projections of demand for informal care in community-dwelling older people aged 65 and over in Korea until 2067. Method: The study drew on data collected from waves 4–6 of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (2012–2016, n = 12,975). Population data published by Statistics Korea and data from the Long-term Care Insurance Statistical Yearbook for Korea were also used. A macro-simulation model was built to make the projections. Results: The number of older people receiving informal care will increase from 0.71 million in 2020 to 2.2 million in 2067. Demand for informal care from adult children or relatives is projected to rise by 257%, much faster than the increase in demand for spousal care (164%). The estimates are sensitive to alternative assumptions about future mortality rates, fertility rates, patterns of migration, and the prevalence of functional disabilities in the population. Conclusion: Demand for informal care in Korea will rise substantially in the coming decades, and the increase will be uneven for different groups of care users. Our analyses are not only relevant to the long-term care system for the general older population but also have profound implications for intensive users of long-term care in Korea. The findings highlight the importance of accurate identification of unmet needs in the population and timely delivery of government support to older people and their informal caregivers. Full article

The objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in the Nordic countries, i.e., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, if adults adhere to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR). A sex- and age-group specific epidemiological macro-simulation model was used to estimate the preventable deaths due to the differences between country specific actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake), and age-and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases, together with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations were performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals. The model predicts that Iceland would benefit the most by adhering to the NNR, followed by Finland. In all the Nordic countries, the highest benefit would be achieved by adhering to the fruits and vegetable intakes, except Denmark, where a lower recommended intake of salt would provide the highest benefit. For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more lives compared to other dietary components for all the Nordic countries, while for women, dietary fiber was the most prominent factor, except in Iceland. The Nordic Council should consider policies for promoting healthy eating according to the needs of each country. Full article

The objective is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in Sweden if adults adhere to the official dietary recommendations. We used an age-group and sex-specific epidemiological macro-simulation model to estimate preventable deaths due to the discrepancies between actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake) and age- and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases together compared with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations was performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). The model predicts that 6405 (95% UI: 5086–7086) deaths could be prevented or delayed if the Swedish population could adhere to official dietary recommendations in a year. More deaths would be saved for men than women. The recommendations for fruits and vegetables could have saved 47% of the deaths, followed by fiber intake (32%). For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more compared to other dietary components, while for women dietary fiber was the prominent factor. Public health policies should consider ensuring healthy eating practices for the Swedish population. Full article