Search Results (22)

The present study investigates Vietnam’s economic structural transformation from 2007 to 2023, identifying key sectors contributing to output growth and poverty reduction. The study is situated within the broader context of industrialization and sustainable development in emerging economies. It employs structural decomposition analysis using Vietnam’s national input–output tables for the years 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The analysis decomposes changes in total output into technical effects and final demand effects, allowing for an evaluation of the relative contributions of sectoral productivity and demand side factors. The findings of the study indicate that the manufacturing and services sectors have been the primary drivers of economic growth, with the electrical and optical equipment, food, beverages and tobacco, and basic metals sectors demonstrating particularly strong performance. The factor of final demand, which is derived from consumption, investment, and exports, has played a dominant role in driving output. Notably, export-led manufacturing has experienced significant benefits due to Vietnam’s engagement in free trade agreements. It is noteworthy that the agriculture sector demonstrated a period of recovery between 2019 and 2023, driven by an increase in final demand. This study underscores the pivotal function of sectoral adaptability, trade openness, and strategic policy in maintaining inclusive economic development. It is evident that the phenomenon under scrutiny is not only indicative of vulnerabilities and opportunities but also shaped by global shocks, for example, the coronavirus pandemic. Full article

Concentrated apple juice (AJC) is a globally traded commodity, with major producers such as China, Poland, and the United States supplying AJC to markets worldwide. The aim of this article is to determine the competitive position of the main global exporters of concentrated apple juice. It also seeks to analyze changes in their positions over the period from 2005 to 2023. Assessing competitive position is important for several economic and business reasons, including identifying leading exporters and recognizing both growing and declining markets. The competitive position was measured using Market Share (MS) indicators, Gross and Net Export Orientation indicators (E_gr, E_net), and the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index. The results reveal significant structural shifts in global AJC trade. Most notably, China’s declining competitiveness, reflected across all indicators, led to its loss of market leadership. This raises questions about the reasons for this decline and whether it presents opportunities for other exporters. This signals a broader reconfiguration in the global AJC supply chain, driven in part by domestic economic changes, such as rising consumption and decreasing export orientation. Simultaneously, other countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, show varying degrees of competitive growth, with Moldova and Ukraine emerging as key players. These trends suggest a diversification of supply sources and a more fragmented competitive landscape. Although national differences persist, the analysis indicates that structural and economic transformations, rather than short-term price signals, are driving the evolving global competitiveness in the AJC market. The observed weak correlations between prior-year apple prices and RCA confirm that broader market and policy factors play a more decisive role. Full article

Ensuring food security and sustainable land management is a global priority, particularly within countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This study investigates the role of cultivated land regulation systems in influencing agricultural productivity and trade efficiency, focusing on China, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan. Despite the critical role of cultivated land, variations in land-regulation policies and regional practices have led to disparate outcomes in agricultural productivity, sustainability, and trade efficiency. A comparative methodology was employed, integrating descriptive statistics, regression modeling, and geospatial analysis to evaluate yield trends, irrigation coverage, land-use efficiency, and trade performance between 2016 and 2022. Data were sourced from government reports, international databases, and satellite imagery. The results indicate that China’s centralized land-regulation policies—such as the Red Line Policy—have stabilized arable land, enhanced average crop yields (6.1 tons/ha in 2022), and significantly expanded agricultural export volumes. In Russia, land consolidation and modernization efforts have improved productivity (2.9 tons/ha in 2022) and export capacities, though limited irrigation remains a challenge. Kyrgyzstan, while showing gradual improvements through cooperative farming, continues to face fragmentation, infrastructure deficiencies, and limited trade growth. The study concludes that harmonized and targeted land-regulation policies—coupled with infrastructure investments and regulatory alignment—are essential to secure productivity, improve trade efficiency, and strengthen agricultural resilience across BRI countries. Strengthened investments in infrastructure, land-tenure security, and policy alignment across BRI countries are recommended to enhance food security and agricultural trade efficiency. Full article

The principal objectives of this study were to determine how government spending on human capital, specifically on education and healthcare, impacts Saudi Arabia’s economic growth and its policy implications for sustained economic growth and development. Given the above objectives, this study examined the short-term dynamics and long-term relationships between government spending on human capital, measured by per capita education and healthcare expenditures, and its impact on Saudi Arabia’s economic growth, measured by per capita real GDP, from 1985 to 2021. The Non-linear Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models were used to estimate and examine the relationships. The study concluded that per capita GDP is negatively correlated with per capita government spending on healthcare and positively correlated with per capita spending on education in Saudi Arabia. Per capita GDP is also positively related to exports per capita. The results of the coefficient symmetry test show that per capita spending on healthcare and education causes long-term, asymmetric effects on Saudi Arabia’s per capita GDP, that is, the decline in per capita GDP resulting from a decrease in education spending per capita is larger than the increase in per capita GDP resulting from an increase in education spending per capita. However, the decline in per capita GDP resulting from an increase in healthcare spending per capita is larger than the increase in per capita GDP resulting from a decrease in healthcare spending per capita. The study also found unidirectional causality from per capita spending on healthcare, education, and exports to per capita GDP. Therefore, this study infers that increases in government healthcare spending reduce economic growth, whereas increases in spending on education contribute to it. Saudi Arabia’s economy also experiences export-led economic growth. The results of this study provide the government and policymakers with valuable insights with respect to the efficient allocation of scarce government resources to education and healthcare for sustained economic growth and development. Full article

In the global pursuit of sustainable development and climate change mitigation, reconciling export growth with environmental protection has emerged as a universal challenge. As the world’s largest developing economy, China has traditionally relied on a resource-intensive development model to fuel rapid foreign trade growth. However, this extensive growth pattern has not only led to environmental pollution domestically but has also encountered hurdles from international green trade barriers. Finance, as a key driver of stable economic growth, plays a pivotal role in achieving high-quality trade development. Against this backdrop, the Chinese government has introduced the green credit interest subsidies policy. This policy aims to coordinate government financial resources and guide capital toward green production, alleviating financing constraints and fostering the upgrading of export product quality. Utilizing data from the World Bank, China Customs statistics, and provincial panels from 2011 to 2020, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the causal impact of the green credit subsidies policy on efforts to upgrade the export quality of green products across China’s regions. The benchmark regression results indicate that the green credit interest subsidies policy has significantly improved the export quality of green products across China’s manufacturing industries. Heterogeneity analysis shows that this policy has had a more pronounced positive impact on green product quality in industries with quality-based competition strategies, in regions with well-coordinated local finance and financial policies, as well as in countries that have concluded environmental clauses with China. Mechanism analysis reveals that, on the export side, the policy enhances green product quality by easing financing constraints, increasing green credit, boosting productivity, and upgrading industrial structures. On the import side, the policy promotes green product quality by expanding the scale, variety, and quality of green intermediate goods. This research offers valuable insights for developing countries aiming to establish export-oriented green transformation and upgrading strategies. Full article

Pakistan’s economic growth has been hindered by various internal and external factors since its independence in 1947. This study aims to identify the root causes of these issues and provide a comprehensive understanding of the country’s economic situation. Internally, inefficient bureaucracy, corruption, inadequate support for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), labor market rigidity, tax evasion, and regional inequalities have impeded development. External factors such as political instability, terrorism, weak governance, foreign policy challenges, and insufficient infrastructure have discouraged investment and disrupted economic activities. Pakistan’s reliance on low-tech exports has also led to a loss of competitiveness in international trade. To revitalize the economy, the study suggests reforms in governance, bureaucracy, and infrastructure, with a focus on supporting SMEs, reducing corruption, and attracting investment. The adoption of circular economy (CE) practices, particularly through the use of recycled materials, is proposed as a viable pathway to enhance economic resilience and environmental sustainability. The study highlights the potential for integrating CE strategies, drawing from successful global practices, to address Pakistan’s economic and environmental challenges. However, the reliance on historical data and linear econometric models may not fully capture the evolving economic dynamics, necessitating further research incorporating real-time data and sector-specific approaches. Despite these limitations, the study provides actionable insights for policymakers, offering a framework for Pakistan and other developing economies to achieve sustainable growth. Full article

Trade liberalization has enabled China to become a global manufacturing hub. However, an increasing focus on pollutant emissions has accompanied China’s rapid economic growth. This paper uses the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and the Annual Energy Survey of Industrial Firms from 1998 to 2007 to identify the effects of trade liberalization in final goods and intermediate goods on pollutant emissions of Chinese manufacturing enterprises. The difference-in-difference method is used to analyze the data, with China’s accession to the World Trade Organization serving as an exogenous policy shock that brought trade liberalization. The paper’s findings indicate the following: (1) Trade liberalization has reduced the tariffs on final goods, which has led to a notable reduction in the intensity of pollutant emissions from Chinese manufacturing firms. (2) Trade liberalization in intermediate goods, meanwhile, has led to a significant increase in the pollutant emission intensity of manufacturing firms. However, the emission reduction effect observed in final goods is more pronounced. (3) The difference-in-difference-in-difference method was used to examine the heterogeneity of the pollutant emission effect of trade liberalization across manufacturing firms. Our analysis revealed that trade liberalization has significantly enhanced the pollutant emission intensity of state-owned enterprises while exhibiting no significant effect on foreign invested enterprises. Furthermore, trade liberalization has intensified pollutant emissions among exporting firms. Full article

This paper analyzes how export margins responded to an intermediate input supply shock caused by the 2020 lockdown in China. We use regression decomposition with triple and quadruple difference-in-differences models to identify causal impacts and mitigate potential heterogeneity in transaction-level customs data from the Bangladesh apparel manufacturing industry. The triple difference estimate shows that the average export value per firm–product–destination combination declined by approximately 65%, leading to a decrease in overall exports of woven apparel from Bangladesh. The input supply shock also adversely affected the subgroups of firms across various firm-level characteristics along the intensive margin. Moreover, the export market share decomposition reveals that the shock significantly affected intensive margins by decreasing incumbents’ market allocation by 9%. An equivalent increase in extensive margins led to a readjustment in the market allocation, leading to fewer market leavers and slightly more new market entrants. Our results indicate that Bangladesh’s exports mostly decreased due to the smaller quantities of products exported rather than there being fewer firms, destinations, or products involved in export trade. There were significant market share reallocations that occurred after the Chinese input supply shock. An appropriate policy stance is required for sustainable export sector growth strategies, which will enhance the country’s defense against potential future shocks and foster the achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Bangladesh. Full article

Under the concept of “government-guided, enterprise-led, and market-oriented” operation, the Chinese Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones (COCZs) have developed a new type of international production pattern, which has become an effective way for developing countries to integrate into the global production network sustainably. Based on the COCZ data collected manually and country-level panel data from 1997 to 2019, this study innovatively analyzes the sustainable trade effect of COCZs with the difference-in-differences method. The research finds that the establishment of COCZs significantly boosts the import and export of the host country in a sustainable manner. Further analysis finds that COCZs can promote the sustainable trade growth of the host country in three aspects: economic, societal, and environmental. This sustainable trade effect is closely related to the institutional improvement and infrastructure construction generated by COCZs. By providing a comprehensive and rigorous analysis of the impact of COCZs on the host country’s trade performance, the paper effectively responds to the criticisms on China’s “going out” strategy, which is often based on biased assumptions and a lack of empirical evidence. It also provides policy implications for both China and the host countries to enhance the cooperation and mutual benefits of COCZs. Full article

This paper applies a new artificial intelligence architecture, the temporal fusion transformer (TFT), for the joint GDP forecasting of 25 OECD countries at different time horizons. This new attention-based architecture offers significant advantages over other deep learning methods. First, results are interpretable since the impact of each explanatory variable on each forecast can be calculated. Second, it allows for visualizing persistent temporal patterns and identifying significant events and different regimes. Third, it provides quantile regressions and permits training the model on multiple time series from different distributions. Results suggest that TFTs outperform regression models, especially in periods of turbulence such as the COVID-19 shock. Interesting economic interpretations are obtained depending on whether the country has domestic demand-led or export-led growth. In essence, TFT is revealed as a new tool that artificial intelligence provides to economists and policy makers, with enormous prospects for the future. Full article

The purpose of this research is to estimate the dynamic impacts of foreign direct investments (FDI) and exports on economic growth in Peru (1970–2020) using annual series. Starting with the theoretical Mundell–Fleming static model with assumptions, we find that the change in exports does not affect GDP, and the effect of FDI on GDP can be positive or negative depending on the comparison between the slopes of the IS and LM curves. The variables are foreign direct investment net flow (% of GDP), exports of goods and services (% of GDP), and GDP growth rate (%). FDI and exports constitute first-order integrated processes; meanwhile, the GDP growth rate is a stationary process. The Granger causality evidences feedback between GDP and exports and the FDI-led growth hypothesis. Considering the dependent variable GDP growth rate, the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration bound test shows the findings regarding the cointegration consist of positive long-term equilibrium impacts from exports and FDI on GDP. Estimating an error correction model, in the short-term, the FDI explains to GDP and the exports have an insignificant impact on economic growth in Peru. Finally, we conclude that Peru’s economic policy path should continue to attract foreign capital to increase FDI. Full article

The diversification of the economy including its exports is at the core of Saudi Vision 2030. The vision targets to raise non-oil export from 16% to 50% of non-oil GDP by 2030. Achieving this, in addition to other goals, necessitates a better understanding of the non-oil export relationship with its determinants. However, we are not aware of a study that estimates the impacts of the determinants on Saudi non-oil exports covering the recent years of reforms and low oil prices and that conducts simulations for future. The purpose of this study is to develop an econometric modeling framework for Saudi non-oil export that can enhance informing the policymaking process through empirical estimations and simulations. For estimations, we applied cointegration and equilibrium correction methodology to the annual data for the period 1983–2018. Results show that Middle Eastern and North African countries’ GDP, as a measure of foreign income, and Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP, as a measure of production capacity, have statistically significant positive effects on Saudi non-oil exports in the long run. The real effective exchange rate (REER), as a measure of competitiveness, also exerts a positive effect in the long run if it depreciates and vice versa. Furthermore, our findings support the Export-led growth concept, which articulates that export can be an engine of economic growth and does not support the Dutch disease concept, which highlights the consequences of the resource sector for the non-resource tradable sector for Saudi Arabia. Macroeconometric model-based simulations conducted up to 2030 reveal out that the Saudi non-oil export is more responsive to the changes in REER than any other determinants. The simulation results also show that non-oil manufacturing makes a three times larger contribution to the future expansion of non-oil exports than agriculture. Moreover, the simulations discover that finance, insurance, and other business services, as well as transport and communication play an important role in improving the Saudi non-oil export performance in the coming decade. The key policy recommendation is that measures should be implemented in a coordinated and balanced way to achieve non-oil exports and other targets of the Vision. Full article

Using data for 130 developing countries over a 24 year period from 1996 to 2019, this study investigates the role of manufacturing development in sustainable growth and how the contribution of the manufacturing sector to growth is affected by exports and the underlying export-oriented policies. By employing a vintage difference GMM estimation developed by Arellano and Bond (1991), we find that the manufacturing sector positively contributes to economic growth in developing countries, whereas exports (and thus, their related growth policies) lead to deindustrialization and are thus harmful to growth. In addition, we find that this export-led deindustrialization and the resulting negative growth effect might differ depending on a country’s stage of development measured in terms of the per capita income level. In particular, the growth of countries with lower income levels is more severely negatively impacted than in the case of the richer countries, which is consistent with the findings in the literature. Finally, our main results are robust under two alternative regression checks in which we take into account the potential endogeneity problem and additionally control for the share of imports in GDP in the model. Full article

The China–US trade conflict will inevitably have a negative impact on China’s trade imports and exports, industrial development, and economic growth, and will affect the achievement of climate change goals. In the short term, the impact of the trade conflict on China’s import and export trade will cause the carbon emissions contained in traded commodities to change accordingly. To assess the impact of the trade conflict on China’s climate policy, this paper combines a model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the input–output analysis method and calculates the carbon emissions in international trade before and after the conflict. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade war has led to a sharp decline in China–US trade, but for China as a whole, imports and exports have not changed much; (2) China’s export emissions have changed little, its import emissions have dropped slightly, and its net emissions have increased; and (3) China’s exports are still concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Changes in trade will bring challenges to China’s balancing of climate and trade exigencies. China–US cooperation based on energy and technology will help China cope with climate change after the trade conflict. Full article

The green transformation of the manufacturing industry is crucial for high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and environmental regulation and technological innovation may play key roles. Considering the undesirable output of the manufacturing industry, this paper adopted the undesirable-SE-SBM Model to measure the green transformation efficiency, which can reflect the core transformation performance. On this basis, this paper respectively adopted system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) and differential generalized method of moments (DIF-GMM) to explore the driving factors of green transformation, which fully considered the lag variable of transformation efficiency. The estimated results of green transformation showed that the efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has maintained an overall growth trend, while that of the eastern regions was higher than that of the central and western regions. The regional difference of transformation efficiencies showed a trend of convergence first and then expansion, however, a few regions such as Chongqing have achieved leapfrog development. The estimated results of driving factors showed the first-stage lag affected the green transformation positively, while the second-stage lag had a significantly negative effect. The ratchet effect and cumulative effect led to the continued efforts on green transformation, however, the timeliness of policy might cause a rebound in practice. As mentioned in green paradox, the environmental regulation had a negative effect, which might bring compliance costs. The technology innovation level indeed promoted the green transformation of manufacturing, but the scientific research investment did not exert the expected positive effect, while the utilization of many research funds lacked market orientation. Economic development level had a negative effect on green transformation, and it would play a positive effect only if it reached a certain stage. The industrialization and urbanization affected the efficiency positively, and the external dependence degree had a significant negative effect. It was not clear whether foreign direct investment (FDI) brought a pollution haven or pollution halo effect. In view of these conclusions, local governments should strictly enforce environmental regulations, build the regional green innovation system, improve marketization of research funds, optimize the export structure, and promote new urbanization and new industrialization. Full article