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Eco-geological environmental carrying capacity (EGECC) refers to the ability of a regional eco-geological environmental system to support human activities and socioeconomic development while maintaining ecological functions and geological stability. Its assessment is important for preventing geological hazards, regional development, and the green transition. However, existing studies often face challenges, such as subjectivity in assigning weights and limited capacity to capture nonlinear interactions among multiple factors. To address these limitations, this study focuses on Kunming City. It applies the analytic hierarchy process and coefficient of variation methods to derive subjective and objective weights, respectively. At the same time, random forest is used to identify nonlinear indicator contributions embedded in the evaluation results. These weights are then integrated through an improved linear efficacy coefficient framework to construct a comprehensive weighting scheme. The results indicate that Kunming’s EGECC shows a spatially heterogeneous pattern, with higher values distributed mainly in the southeastern and southwestern areas, especially in Shilin County. In contrast, lower values are concentrated in the northern mountainous areas and highly urbanized central districts, such as Dongchuan and Wuhua Districts. Moreover, spatial pattern detection of the EGECC is sensitive to the choice of composite weighting method, while interactions among geological factors—such as disaster point density and slope—play a major role in shaping the carrying capacity. Overall, the proposed composite weighting approach provides a relatively balanced integration of expert-knowledge-based, data-dispersion-based, and nonlinear data-driven information, and its reliability is further examined through geological hazard-point validation and weight-perturbation sensitivity analysis. Full article