Search Results (4)

The prediction of dissolved gas change trends in power transformer oil is very important for the diagnosis of transformer faults and ensuring its safe operation. Considering the time series and nonlinear features of the gas change trend, this paper proposes a novel robust extreme learning machine (ELM) model combining an improved data decomposition method for gas content forecasting. Firstly, the original data with nonlinear and sudden change properties will make the forecasting model unstable, and thus an improved variational modal decomposition (IPVMD) method is developed to decompose the original data to obtain the multiple modal dataset, in which the marine predators algorithm (MPA) optimization method is utilized to optimize the free parameters of the VMD. Second, the ELM as an efficient and easily implemented tool is used as the basic model for dissolved gas forecasting. However, the traditional ELM with mean square error (MSE) criterion is sensitive to the non-Gaussian measurement noise (or outliers). In addition, considering the nonlinear non-Gaussian properties of the dissolved gas, a new learning criterion, called extended maximum correntropy criterion (ExMCC), is defined by using an extended kernel function in the correntropy framework, and the ExMCC as a learning criterion is introduced into the ELM to develop a novel robust regression model (called ExMCC-ELM) to improve the ability of ELM to process mutational data. Third, a gas-in-oil prediction scheme is proposed by using the ExMCC-ELM performed on each modal obtained by the proposed IPVMD. Finally, we conducted several simulation studies on the measured data, and the results show that the proposed method has good predictive performance. Full article

Transformer state forecasting and fault forecasting are important for the stable operation of power equipment and the normal operation of power systems. Forecasting of the dissolved gas content in oil is widely conducted for transformer faults, but its accuracy is affected by data scale and data characteristics. Based on phase space reconstruction (PSR) and weighted least squares support vector machine (WLSSVM), a forecasting model of time series of dissolved gas content in transformer oil is proposed in this paper. The phase spaces of time series of the dissolved gas content sequence are reconstructed by chaos theory, and the delay time and dimension are obtained by the C-C method. The WLSSVM model is used to forecast time series of dissolved gas content, the chemical reaction optimization (CRO) algorithm is used to optimize training parameters, the bootstrap method is used to build forecasting intervals. Finally, the accuracy and generalization ability of the forecasting model are verified by the analysis of actual case and the comparison of different models. Full article

A solution for forecasting the dissolved gases in oil-immersed transformers has been proposed based on the wavelet technique and least squares support vector machine. In order to optimize the hyper-parameters of the constructed wavelet LS-SVM regression, the imperialist competition algorithm was then applied. In this study, the assessment of prediction performance is based on the squared correlation coefficient and mean absolute percentage error methods. According to the proposed method, this novel procedure was applied to a simulated case and the experimental results show that the dissolved gas contents could be accurately predicted using this method. Besides, the proposed approach was compared to other prediction methods such as the back propagation neural network, the radial basis function neural network, and generalized regression neural network. By comparison, it was inferred that this method is more effective than previous forecasting methods. Full article

Forecasting dissolved gas content in power transformers plays a significant role in detecting incipient faults and maintaining the safety of the power system. Though various forecasting models have been developed, there is still room to further improve prediction performance. In this paper, a new forecasting model is proposed by combining mixed kernel function-based support vector regression (MKF-SVR) and genetic algorithm (GA). First, forecasting performance of SVR models constructed with a single kernel are compared, and then Gaussian kernel and polynomial kernel are retained due to better learning and prediction ability. Next, a mixed kernel, which integrates a Gaussian kernel with a polynomial kernel, is used to establish a SVR-based forecasting model. Genetic algorithm (GA) and leave-one-out cross validation are employed to determine the free parameters of MKF-SVR, while mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and squared correlation coefficient (r²) are applied to assess the quality of the parameters. The proposed model is implemented on a practical dissolved gas dataset and promising results are obtained. Finally, the forecasting performance of the proposed model is compared with three other approaches, including RBFNN, GRNN and GM. The experimental and comparison results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms other popular models in terms of forecasting accuracy and fitting capability. Full article