Search Results (13)

Due to the rapid development of the internet, cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) is gaining popularity. With CBEC, consumers from different countries can overcome the limits of languages and currencies to buy desired products directly. However, compared to domestic e-commerce, CBEC confronts significant challenges, such as risky distribution channels, dependency on third-party logistics, customs clearance, etc. Therefore, multi-faceted efforts are needed to promote CBEC. Traditional studies probe CBEC through a logistics and operational perspective; this study bridges a research gap by stressing a human–computer interaction perspective. Under the premise that technical infrastructure keeps improving, consumers’ expectations of switching to CBEC has been an essential issue. Specifically, this study develops a theoretical model that emphasizes website cues as experienced utility and the perceived effectiveness of e-commerce institutional mechanisms (PEEIM) as decision utility to investigate their effects on the purchase intention of CBEC. This study applied Smart PLS 3.0 to verify the research model with 300 valid responses from online questionnaires. Research findings confirmed the proposed model. Practical strategies for promoting CEBC were suggested accordingly. Full article

In this paper, a hybrid of a Wavelet Decomposition–Generalised Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity–Extreme Value Theory (WD-ARMA-GARCH-EVT) model is applied to estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) of BitCoin (BTC/USD) and the South African Rand (ZAR/USD). The aim is to measure and compare the riskiness of the two currencies. New and improved estimation techniques for VaR have been suggested in the last decade in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. This paper aims to provide an improved alternative to the already existing statistical tools in estimating a currency VaR empirically. Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) and two mother wavelet filters on the returns series are considered in this paper, viz., the Haar and Daubechies (d4). The findings show that BitCoin/USD is riskier than ZAR/USD since it has a higher VaR per unit invested in each currency. At the 99% significance level, BitCoin/USD has average values of VaR of 2.71% and 4.98% for the WD-ARMA-GARCH-GPD and WD-ARMA-GARCH-GEVD models, respectively; and this is slightly higher than the respective 2.69% and 3.59% for the ZAR/USD. The average BitCoin/USD returns of 0.001990 are higher than ZAR/USD returns of −0.000125. These findings are consistent with the mean-variance portfolio theory, which suggests a higher yield for riskier assets. Based on the p-values of the Kupiec likelihood ratio test, the hybrid model adequacy is largely accepted, as p-values are greater than 0.05, except for the WD-ARMA-GARCH-GEVD models at a 99% significance level for both currencies. The findings are helpful to financial risk practitioners and forex traders in formulating their diversification and hedging strategies and ascertaining the risk-adjusted capital requirement to be set aside as a cushion in the event of the occurrence of an actual loss. Full article

Cryptocurrencies are said to be very risky, and so are the currencies of emerging economies, including the South African rand. The steady rise in the movement of South Africans’ investments between the rand and BitCoin warrants an investigation as to which of the two currencies is riskier. In this paper, the Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) model is employed to estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES) for the two exchange rates, BitCoin/US dollar (BitCoin) and the South African rand/US dollar (ZAR/USD). The estimated risk measures are used to compare the riskiness of the two exchange rates. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method is used to find the optimal parameters of the GPD model. The higher extreme value index estimate associated with the BTC/USD when compared with the ZAR/USD estimate, suggests that the BTC/USD is riskier than the ZAR/USD. The computed VaR estimates for losses of $0.07, $0.09, and $0.16 per dollar invested in the BTC/USD at 90%, 95%, and 99% compared to the ZAR/USD’s $0.02, $0.02, and $0.03 at the respective levels of significance, confirm that BitCoin is riskier than the rand. The ES (average losses) of $0.11, $0.13, and $0.21 per dollar invested in the BTC/USD at 90%, 95%, and 99% compared to the ZAR/USD’s $0.02, $0.02, and $0.03 at the respective levels of significance further confirm the higher risk associated with BitCoin. Model adequacy is confirmed using the Kupiec test procedure. These findings are helpful to risk managers when making adequate risk-based capital requirements more rational between the two currencies. The argument is for more capital requirements for BitCoin than for the South African rand. Full article

In this paper, the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD) model is employed to estimate financial risk in the form of return levels and the value at risk (VaR) for the two exchange rates, BitCoin/US dollar (BTC/USD) and the South African rand/US dollar (ZAR/USD). The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) responsible for developing supervisory guidelines for banks and financial trading desks recommended that VaR be computed and reported. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is used to estimate the parameters of the GEVD. The estimated risk values are used to compare the riskiness of the two exchange rates and help both traders and investors to define their position in forex trading. This is to helping understanding the risk they are taking when they convert their savings/investments to BitCoin instead of the South African currency, the rand. The high extreme value index associated with the BTC/USD compared to the ZAR/USD implies that BitCoin is riskier than the rand. The BTC/USD has higher values of expected extreme/tail losses of 13.44%, 18.02%, and 23.41% at short (6 months), medium (12 months), and long (24 months) terms, compared to the ZAR/USD expected extreme/tail losses of 2.40%, 2.84%, and 3.28%, respectively. The computed VaR estimates for losses of USD 0.17, USD 0.22, and USD 0.38 per dollar invested in BTC/USD at 90%, 95%, and 99%, compared to ZAR/USD’s USD 0.03, USD 0.03, and USD 0.04 at the respective confidence levels, confirm the high risk associated with BitCoin. The conclusion drawn from this study is that BTC/USD is riskier than ZAR/USD, despite the rand being a developing country’s currency, hence perceived as being risky. The perception is that the rand is riskier than BitCoin and perceptions do influence exchange rates. Kupiec’s backtest results confirmed the model’s adequacy. These findings are helpful to investors, traders, and risk managers when deciding on trading positions for the two currencies. Full article

The purpose of this study was to create quantitative models to value ether, ether futures, and ether options based upon the ability of cryptocurrencies to transform existing intermediary-verified payments to non-intermediary-based currency transfers, the ability of ether as a late mover to displace bitcoin as the first mover, and the valuation of ether in the context of investor irrationality models. The risk-averse investor’s utility function is a combination of expectations of the performance of ether, expectations of cryptocurrencies’ transformative power, and expectations of ether superseding bitcoin. The moderate risk-taker’s utility function is an alt-Weibull distribution, along with a gamma distribution. Risk-takers have a utility function in the form of a Bessel function. Ether price functions consist of a Levy jump process. Ether futures are valued as the combination of current spot prices along with term prices. The value of spot prices is the product of a spot premium and a lognormal distribution of spot prices. The value of term prices is equal to the product of a term premium, and the Levy jump process of price fluctuations during the delivery period. For ether options, a less risky ether option portfolio offsets ether’s risk by a fixed-income trading strategy. Full article

If global energy consumption returns to its pre-pandemic growth rate, it will be almost impossible to transition to a zero-emission or net-zero-emission energy system by 2050 in the absence of large-scale CO₂ removal. Since relying on unproven technologies for CO₂ removal is speculative and risky, this paper considers an energy descent scenario for reaching zero greenhouse gas emissions from energy by 2050. To drive the rapid transition from fossil fuels to carbon-free energy sources and ensure demand reduction, funding is needed urgently in order to implement four strategies: (i) technology change, i.e., implementing the growth of zero-carbon energy production, end-use energy efficiency and ‘green’ energy carriers, together with ongoing R&D on CO₂ removal; (ii) reducing climate impacts; (iii) reducing energy consumption by social and behavioural changes; and (iv) improving human wellbeing while increasing social justice. Modern monetary theory explains how monetary sovereign governments, with their own fiat currencies, can create the necessary funding without financial constraints, although constraints do result from the productive capacities of their economies. The energy transition could be part-funded by a significant transfer of resources from monetary sovereign countries of the global North to the global South, financed by currency issuance. Full article

Since late 2019, during one of the largest pandemics in history, COVID-19, global economic recession has continued. Therefore, investors seek an alternative investment that generates profits during this financially risky situation. Cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin, has become a new currency tool for speculators and investors, and it is expected to be used in future exchanges. Therefore, this paper uses a Value at Risk (VaR) model to measure the risk of investment in Bitcoin. In this paper, we showed the results of the predicted daily loss of investment by using the historical simulation VaR model, the delta-normal VaR model, and the Monte Carlo simulation VaR model with the confidence levels of 99%, 95%, and 90%. This paper displayed backtesting methods to investigate the accuracy of VaR models, which consisted of the Kupiec’s POF and the Kupiec’s TUFF statistical testing results. Finally, Christoffersen’s independence test and Christoffersen’s interval forecasts evaluation showed effectiveness in the predictions for the robustness of VaR models for each confidence level. Full article

Although household savings in Japan are among the highest in the world, investment in risky assets is still very low. This study examines whether financial literacy explains the lack of investment in risky assets in Japan. We use data from the Preference Parameter Study, a nationwide survey in Japan that has been conducted by Osaka University. We use investment in stocks, investment trusts, futures/options, Japanese government bonds, government bonds of foreign countries, and foreign currency deposits as a proxy for investment in risky assets. Our results show that investment in risky assets is higher among financially literate people. Moreover, financial literacy has a significantly positive association with investment in risky assets even after controlling the demographic, socio-economic, and psychological factors. We check the robustness of the association between financial literacy and investment in risky assets by segregating investment in risky assets into investment in equity securities and investment in bonds and foreign currencies. Financial literacy is found to be associated with both investment in equity securities and investment in bonds and foreign currencies. Our results are also robust in terms of the endogeneity issue. The results imply that investment in risky assets in financial markets could be increased by introducing financial literacy programs at a mass level. Full article

The article is devoted to the analysis of cryptocurrency as a new phenomenon in the modern global economic processes and legal institutions. The relevance of the study is predetermined by the very specifics of such a phenomenon as cryptocurrency consisting of a distributed ledger technology, which determines the peculiarities of issuing, storing and performing operations with cryptocurrency. Moreover, the cryptocurrency turnover directly correlates with the national legislation of individual countries, which are the subject of domestic regulation with currency, tax legislation and legislation on the securities market. Sometimes, in this regard, there is a clash of public interests and the interests of entities involved in the circulation of cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency, as an unconventional, trendy phenomenon of the recent times, has become the object of research and discussions on all the world platforms, starting with academia, continuing with the business community and ending with state institutions. There are many reasons for explaining such interest and they can all be reduced to two main blocks: the advantages and the disadvantages of cryptocurrency circulation. The problem of cryptocurrency turnover, on the one hand, is that until now none of the national economies have regulated the cost-effective mechanism for the cryptocurrency turnover and, on the other hand, the leading countries have not yet set up an effective system of legal regulation of cryptocurrency. Many countries are in the active process of working to adequately address the above problem. Separately, it is worth highlighting the interest of Muslim countries in this issue, where discussions are still underway about the permissibility of cryptocurrency in Islamic law. As for the Russian realities in the context of the issue under study, the Federal Law “On Digital Financial Assets, Digital Currency and on Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation“, which came into effect on 1 January 2021, was supposed to streamline relations of subjects including cryptocurrencies, but, according to the experts in this field, this law is far from impeccable and this sphere of relations cannot be quickly and effectively regulated. This article describes the characteristics of cryptocurrency, its essence, disadvantages and advantages as an object of economic and civil law relations. The purpose of the research is to analyze the economic and legal phenomenon of cryptocurrency, as well as its characteristics in the Muslim legal system. The complexity of the work should be emphasized as a novelty. Based on the designated goal and the logic of construction, the study consists of three interrelated parts. The first part outlines the characteristics of cryptocurrency as an economic category, the second part is devoted to its legal analysis and the last part of the study demonstrates the Islamic perception (Sharia analysis) of this phenomenon. As a conclusion on the scientific research, we will highlight the following provisions. First, economically, nowadays, cryptocurrency is a rather controversial financial instrument: on the one hand, it has great investment attractiveness, but on the other hand, it is subject to great volatility and seems to be a rather risky financial asset. Secondly, from a legal standpoint, cryptocurrencies have not yet found their consistent consolidation and further legal regulation in the Russian legislation. It seems that the legal regulation of this institution will systematically develop depending on what application and results of its turnover the cryptocurrency will have in the future. Finally, the Islamic interpretation of the cryptocurrency phenomenon boils down to the absence of a single, consistent explanation of it from the perspective of Islam and Sharia as an object of permissibility (or prohibition) of transactions with it. It is necessary to further analyze the practice of using cryptocurrency and its impact on the economy and legal institutions in order to make a final decision on its permissibility or prohibition in correlation with the types of activity and the upcoming consequences associated with it. Full article

Virtual currency represents a specific technological innovation on financial markets. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are popular alternatives to traditional cash and investment. We indicate a research gap in the literature review. We find out that current research focused rarely on portfolio diversification using bibliographic analysis in VOSviewer. We think that portfolio diversification is extremely important on the crypto market for most investors because virtual currencies are very risky compared to traditional assets. The primary aim is to construct an optimal portfolio consisting of several cryptocurrencies without traditional assets using a modern theory portfolio. The total sample consists of 16 virtual currencies from 1 October 2017 to 13 January 2020. We mainly obtain historical data on the daily close price of cryptocurrencies from Yahoo Finance. The results show that the optimal portfolio using Markowitz approach consists of Cardano, Binance Coin, and Bitcoin. In addition, virtual currencies are moderately Correlated, with the exception of Tether based on correlation analysis. The high correlation is dangerous for cryptocurrency in portfolio diversification. However, Tether is an atypical virtual currency compared to other cryptocurrencies. Full article

This paper examines the stability of the Bilson–Fama regression for a panel of 55 developed and developing countries. We find multiple break points for nearly every country in our panel. Subperiod estimates of the slope coefficient show a negative bias during some time periods and a positive bias during other time periods in nearly every country. The subperiod biases display two key patterns that shed light on the literature’s linear regression findings. The results point toward the importance of risk in currency markets. We find that risk is greater for developed country markets. The evidence undercuts the widespread view that currency returns are predictable or that developed country markets are less rational. Full article

This paper investigates the level of liquidity of digital currencies during the very intense bearish phase in their markets. The data employed span the period from April 2018 until January 2019, which is the second phase of bearish times with almost constant decreases. The Amihud’s illiquidity ratio is employed in order to measure the liquidity of these digital assets. Findings indicate that the most popular cryptocurrencies exhibit higher levels of liquidity during stressed periods. Thereby, it is revealed that investors’ preferences for trading during highly risky times are favorable for well-known virtual currencies in the detriment of less-known ones. This enhances findings of relevant literature about strong and persistent positive or negative herding behavior of investors based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and highly-capitalized cryptocurrencies in general. Notably though, a tendency towards investing in the TrueUSD stablecoin has also emerged. Full article

This paper carried out a hybrid clustering model for foreign exchange market volatility clustering. The proposed model is built using a Gaussian Mixture Model and the inference is done using an Expectation Maximization algorithm. A mono-dimensional kernel density estimator is used in order to build a probability density based on all historical observations. That allows us to evaluate the behavior’s probability of each symbol of interest. The computation result shows that the approach is able to pinpoint risky and safe hours to trade a given currency pair. Full article