Search Results (49)

The prediction of agricultural commodity futures returns is crucial for understanding global economic trends, alleviating inflationary pressures, and optimizing investment portfolios. However, current research that uses full-sample decomposition to predict agricultural futures returns suffers from data leakage, and the resulting forecast bias leads to overly optimistic outcomes. Additionally, previous studies have lacked a comprehensive consideration of key economic variables that influence agricultural prices. To address these issues, this study proposes the “Rolling VMD-LASSO-Mixed Ensemble” forecasting framework and compares its performance with “Rolling VMD” against univariate models, “Rolling VMD-LASSO” against “Rolling VMD”, and “Rolling VMD-LASSO-Mixed Ensemble” against “Rolling VMD-LASSO”. Empirical results show that, on average, “Rolling VMD” improved MSE, MAE, Theil U, ARV, and DA by 3.05%, 1.09%, 1.52%, 2.96%, and 11.11%, respectively, compared to univariate models. “Rolling VMD-LASSO” improved these five indicators by 2.11%, 1.15%, 1.09%, 2.13%, and 1.00% over “Rolling VMD”. The decision tree-based “Rolling VMD-LASSO-Mixed Ensemble” outperformed “Rolling VMD-LASSO” by 1.98%, 0.96%, 1.28%, 2.55%, and 4.18% in the five metrics. Furthermore, the daily average return, maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, and Calmar ratio based on prediction results also show that “Rolling VMD” outperforms univariate forecasting, “Rolling VMD-LASSO” outperforms “Rolling VMD”, and “Rolling VMD-LASSO-Mixed Ensemble” outperforms “Rolling VMD-LASSO”. This study provides a more accurate and robust forecasting framework for the global agricultural futures market, offering significant practical value for investor risk management and policymakers in stabilizing prices. Full article

The fresh produce supply chain sector is a vital pillar of any society and an indispensable part of the national economic structure. As a significant segment of the agricultural market, accurately forecasting vegetable prices holds significant importance. Vegetable market pricing is subject to a myriad of complex influences, resulting in nonlinear patterns that conventional time series methodologies often struggle to decode. Future planning for commodity pricing is achievable by forecasting the future price anticipated by the current circumstances. This paper presents a price forecasting methodology for tomatoes which uses price and production data taken from 2008 to 2021 and analyzed by means of advanced deep learning-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. A comparative analysis of three models based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) identifies LSTM as the most accurate model, achieving the lowest RMSE (0.2818), while SARIMA performs relatively well. The proposed deep learning-based method significantly improved the results versus other conventional machine learning and statistical time series analysis methods. Full article

Smart farming leverages Artificial Intelligence (AI) to address modern agricultural sustainability challenges. This study investigates the application of machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and time series analysis in agriculture through a systematic literature review following the PRISMA methodology. The review highlights the critical roles of ML and DL techniques in optimizing agricultural processes, such as crop selection, yield prediction, soil compatibility classification, and water management. ML algorithms facilitate tasks like crop selection and soil fertility classification, while DL techniques contribute to forecasting crop production and commodity prices. Additionally, time series analysis is employed for demand forecasting of crops, commodity price prediction, and forecasting crop yield production. The focus of this article is to provide a comprehensive overview of ML and DL techniques within the farming industry. Utilizing crop datasets, ML algorithms are instrumental in classifying soil fertility, crop selection, and various other aspects. DL algorithms, when applied to farming data, enable effective time series analysis and crop selection. By synthesizing the integration of these technologies, this review underscores their potential to enhance decision-making in agriculture and mitigate food scarcity challenges in the future. Full article

This paper presents a novel 5-factor model for agricultural commodity risk premiums, an approach not explored in previous research. The model is applied to the specific cases of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Calibration is achieved using a Kalman filter and maximum likelihood, with data from futures markets and analysts’ forecasts. Risk premiums are computed by comparing expected and futures prices. The model considers that risk premiums are not solely determined by contract maturity but also by the marketing crop years. These crop years, in turn, are influenced by the respective harvest periods, a crucial factor in the agricultural commodity market. Results show that risk premiums vary across commodities, with some exhibiting positive and others negative values. While maturity affects risk premiums’ size, sign, and shape, the crop year plays a critical role, especially in the case of wheat. As speculators in the financial markets demand a positive risk premium, its sign provides insights into whether they are buyers or sellers of futures for each crop year, maturity, and commodity. This research offers valuable insights into grain price behavior, highlighting their similarities and differences. These findings have significant practical implications for market participants seeking to refine their trading and risk management strategies and for future research on the industry structure for each crop. Moreover, this enhanced understanding of risk premiums can be directly applied in the finance and agricultural industries, improving decision-making processes. Full article

The outbreak of war in Ukraine has severely disrupted global food and agricultural markets and affected commodity prices. The grain agreement, also known as the Black Sea Initiative, was concluded on 22 July 2022 by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations, to alleviate the global food crisis caused by the conflict. This study aims to ascertain whether the agreement has resulted in the stabilization of cereal markets, examining the evolution of prices of wheat and corn, which are of significant importance in Ukrainian exports, throughout the duration of the agreement, including its signing, implementation, and expiration. The analysis, based on the GARCH model and using daily quotations of corn and wheat futures contracts of the European futures exchange Euronext from December 2021 to May 2024, indicates that prices were characterized by exceptionally high volatility in the period preceding the signing of the agreement, and at the time of its expiration. The uncertainty regarding cereal trade conditions has triggered shocks, with a long-lasting impact on price volatility. Full article

This study explores the financialization of agricultural commodities, focusing on how financial derivatives and index funds impact the volatility of agro-food markets. Using a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model, we analyze volatility spillovers among key agricultural commodities, particularly maize, and related financial assets over a sample period from 2007 to 2020. Our analysis includes major financial assets like Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the S&P 500 index, and agribusiness corporations such as ADM and Bunge and the largest corn flour producer, GRUMA. The results indicate that financial speculation, especially via passive investments such as ETFs, has intensified price volatility in commodity futures, leading to a systemic risk increase within the sector. This study provides empirical evidence of increased market integration between the agro-food sector and financial markets, underscoring risks to food security and economic stability. We conclude with recommendations for regulatory actions to mitigate systemic risks posed by the growing financial influence in agricultural markets. Full article

The war in Ukraine and the related disruptions in its supply chains shook global markets for agricultural and energy commodities, causing their prices to increase to unprecedented levels. At the same time, this situation highlighted the fact that Ukraine is an important global producer and exporter of certain agricultural products. The complete opening of the EU market to duty-free imports from Ukraine showed that Ukrainian products constitute competition for both EU and Polish food producers. This, in turn, caused further disruptions in the food supply chains within the EU. The aim of this article is to assess the competitive position of Polish and Ukrainian food producers in the EU market and the prospects for the evolution of their competitive advantages. The analysis was carried out using selected quantitative indicators of competitive position, namely Balassa’s Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA) and the Trade Coverage Index (TC). The calculations were made using statistical data from the World Bank WITS-Comtrade database. The research covered the period from 2018 to 2023, inclusive. The research shows that between 2018 and 2023, the share of products in Polish exports to the EU, in which both countries compete, increased to 37.5%; that is, both countries had comparative advantages in these products on this market. The current competition includes, among others, poultry meat, bakery products, wafers and cookies, chocolate, corn, fruit juices, frozen fruit, water and other non-alcoholic drinks, and wheat. At the same time, more than half of Polish exports consisted of products that may become the subject of such competition in the future (currently, only Poland has comparative advantages in the export of these products). These may include, among others, cigarettes, animal feed, fresh or chilled beef, other food products, smoked fish, canned meat, fish fillets, pork, canned fish, and liquid milk and cream. Therefore, Polish food producers face big challenges; the process of the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine and its potential integration with the single European market will strengthen the competitive position of Ukrainian food producers in the EU market. The current competitive strategy of Polish producers, based on cost and price advantages, may turn out to be ineffective under these conditions. Therefore, they must look for new sources of competitive advantage that will distinguish Polish products from the cheaper Ukrainian ones. Therefore, a strategy of competing on quality may prove effective. Full article

Soybeans, a vital source of protein for animal feed and an essential industrial raw material, are the most traded agricultural commodity worldwide. Accurate price forecasting is crucial for maintaining a resilient global food supply chain and has significant implications for agricultural economics and policymaking. This review examines over 100 soybean price forecast models published in the last decade, evaluating them based on the specific markets they target—futures or spot—while highlighting how differences between these markets influence critical model design decisions. The models are also classified into AI-powered and traditional categories, with an initial aim to conduct a statistical analysis comparing the performance of these two groups. This process unveiled a fundamental gap in best practices, particularly regarding the use of common benchmarks and standardised performance metrics, which limits the ability to make meaningful cross-study comparisons. Finally, this study underscores another important research gap: the lack of models forecasting soybean futures prices in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter. These insights provide valuable guidance for researchers, market participants, and policymakers in agricultural economics. Full article

Sub-Saharan economies often rely heavily on a narrow range of commodities, making them particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations in global markets. This volatility predisposes these countries to economic instability, threatening short-term growth and long-term development goals. As a result, this study examines the sustainability implications of commodity price volatility and commodity dependence for 31 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2023. Eleven agricultural commodity-dependent countries, six energy commodity-dependent countries, and fourteen mineral and metal ore-dependent countries were chosen. This study uses balanced annual panel data from World Development Indicators, World Bank Commodity Price Data, and Federal Reserve Bank Data. The data were analyzed using the VECM, and this study’s findings were threefold and unanimous for all three categories of commodities (agricultural, energy and mineral, and metal ore). First, commodity dependence is positively related to economic growth, suggesting that higher commodity prices benefit the economy in the long run. Second, commodity price volatility is negatively related to economic growth, indicating adverse impacts on economic stability in the long run. Third, commodity dependence is positively related to commodity price volatility in the long run. By analyzing the interconnectedness of these factors, this study underscores the need for diversified economic policies and sustainable practices to reduce vulnerability and promote sustainable development in the region. The findings highlight the critical role of strategic resource management and policy interventions in achieving economic stability and ensuring the well-being of future generations. Full article

The present paper tests the use of an agricultural futures minimum tracking error portfolio to replicate the price of the Mexican Hass avocado (a non-commodity). The motivation is that this portfolio could be used to balance the basis risk that the avocado price hedge issuer could face. By performing a backtest of a theoretical avocado producer from January 2000 to September 2023, the results show that the avocado producer could hedge the avocado price by 94%, with the hedge offered by a theoretical financial or government institution. Also, this issuer could balance the risk of such a hedge by buying a coffee–sugar futures portfolio. The cointegrated or long-term relationship shows that using such a futures portfolio is useful for Mexican Hass avocado price hedging. This paper stands as one of the first in testing futures portfolios to offer a synthetic hedge of non-commodities through a commodities’ futures portfolio. Full article

Motivated by the comovement of realized volatilities (RVs) of agricultural commodity prices, we study whether multi-task forecasting algorithms improve the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts of 15 agricultural commodities during the sample period from July 2015 to April 2023. We consider alternative multi-task stacking algorithms and variants of the multivariate Lasso estimator. We find evidence of in-sample predictability but scarce evidence that multi-task forecasting improves out-of-sample forecasts relative to a classic univariate heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-RV model. This lack of systematic evidence of out-of-sample forecasting gains is corroborated by extensive robustness checks, including an in-depth study of the quantiles of the distributions of the RVs and subsample periods that account for increases in the total spillovers among the RVs. We also study an extended model that features the RVs of energy commodities and precious metals, but our conclusions remain unaffected. Besides offering important lessons for future research, our results are interesting for financial market participants, who rely on accurate forecasts of RVs when solving portfolio optimization and derivatives pricing problems, and policymakers, who need accurate forecasts of RVs when designing policies to mitigate the potential adverse effects of a rise in the RVs of agricultural commodity prices and the concomitant economic and political uncertainty. Full article

Accurate prediction of agricultural product prices is instrumental in providing rational guidance for agricultural production planning and the development of the agricultural industry. By constructing an end-to-end agricultural product price prediction model, incorporating a segmented Bézier curve fitting algorithm and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, this study selects corn futures prices listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange as the research subject to predict and validate their price trends. Firstly, corn futures prices are fitted using segmented Bézier curves. Subsequently, the fitted price sequence is employed as a feature and input into an LSTM network for training to obtain a price prediction model. Finally, the prediction results of the Bézier curve-based LSTM model are compared and analyzed with traditional LSTM, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model), VMD-LSTM, and SVR (Support Vector Regression) models. The research findings indicate that the proposed Bézier curve-based LSTM model demonstrates significant predictive advantages in corn futures price prediction. Through comparison with traditional models, the effectiveness of this model is affirmed. Consequently, the Bézier curve-based LSTM model proposed in this paper can serve as a crucial reference for agricultural product price prediction, providing effective guidance for agricultural production planning and industry development. Full article

We employed a non-parametric causality test based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and used the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Information Share Model (IS) to measure the relationship between the futures and spot prices for seven major agricultural commodities in China from 2009 to 2017. We found that the agricultural futures market has potential leading information in price discovery. The results of an Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis also showed that the spot prices react to shocks from the future market and have a lasting impact. This confirms our findings reported for the causality test and information share analysis. Full article

This study aims to employ a causal network model based on transfer entropy for the early warning of systemic risk in commodity markets. We analyzed the dynamic causal relationships of prices for 25 commodities related to China (including futures and spot prices of energy, industrial metals, precious metals, and agricultural products), validating the effect of the causal network structure among commodity markets on systemic risk. Our research results identified commodities and categories playing significant roles, revealing that industry and precious metal markets possess stronger market information transmission capabilities, with price fluctuations impacting a broader range and with greater force on other commodity markets. Under the influence of different types of crisis events, such as economic crises and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the causal network structure among commodity markets exhibited distinct characteristics. The results of the effect of external shocks to the causal network structure of commodity markets on the entropy of systemic risk suggest that network structure indicators can warn of systemic risk. This article can assist investors and policymakers in managing systemic risk to avoid unexpected losses. Full article

In this paper, we utilize a machine learning model (the convolutional neural network) to analyze aerial images of winter hard red wheat planted areas and cloud coverage over the planted areas as a proxy for future yield forecasts. We trained our model to forecast the futures price 20 days ahead and provide recommendations for either a long or short position on wheat futures. Our method shows that achieving positive alpha within a short time window is possible if the algorithm and data choice are unique. However, the model’s performance can deteriorate quickly if the input data become more easily available and/or the trading strategy becomes crowded, as was the case with the aerial imagery we utilized in this paper. Full article