Search Results (3)

Max-stable process (MSP) models can be fit to data collected over a spatial domain to estimate areal-based exceedances while accounting for spatial dependence in extremes. They have theoretical grounding within the framework of extreme value theory (EVT). In this work, we fit MSP models to three-day duration cool season precipitation maxima in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon and to 48 h mid-latitude cyclone precipitation annual maxima in the Upper Trinity River Basin (TRB) of Texas. In total, 14 MSP models were fit (seven based on the WRB data and seven based on the TRB data). These MSP model fits were developed and applied to explore how user choices of study area sampling density, gage extent, and model fitting method impact areal precipitation-frequency calculations. The impacts of gage density were also evaluated. The development of each MSP involved the application of a recently introduced trend surface modeling methodology. Significant reductions in computing times were achieved, with little loss in accuracy, applying random sample subsets rather than the entire grid when calculating areal exceedances for the Cougar dam study area in the WRB. Explorations of gage extent revealed poor consistency among the TRB MSPs with modeling the generalized extreme value (GEV) marginal distribution scale parameter. The gauge density study revealed the robustness of the trend surface modeling methodology. Regardless of the fitting method, the final GEV shape parameter estimates for all fourteen MSPs were greater than their prescribed initial values which were obtained from spatial GEV fits that assumed independence among the extremes. When two MSP models only differed by their selected fitting method, notable differences were observed with their dependence and trend surface parameter estimates and resulting areal exceedances calculations. Full article

A broad understanding of local geology and hydrologic processes is important for effective water resources management. The objectives of this project were to characterize the hydrogeologic framework of the Oak Creek Watershed (OCW) geographical area and examine the connections between surface water and groundwater at selected locations along the main stem of Oak Creek. The OCW area comprises the Siletz River Volcanic (SRV) Formation in the upper portion of the watershed and sedimentary rock formations in the valley. Past hydrologic and geologic studies and our field measurement data were synthesized to create a hydrogeologic framework of the watershed, including a geologic interpretation and a conceptual model of shallow, deep, and lateral groundwater flow throughout the OCW. The highly permeable geology of the SRV formation juxtaposed against the Willamette Basin’s sedimentary geology creates areas of opposing groundwater flow characteristics (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) in the watershed. The Corvallis Fault is the primary interface between these two zones and generally acts as a hydraulic barrier, deflecting groundwater flow just upstream of the fault interface. The extreme angle of the Corvallis Fault and adjacent less permeable sedimentary geology might facilitate subsurface bulk water storage in selected locations. The stream-aquifer relationships investigated showed gaining conditions are prominent in the upper watershed’s northern volcanic region and transition into neutral and losing conditions in the downstream southern sedimentary region in the valley. Agriculture irrigation seepage in the valley appeared to contribute to streamflow gaining conditions. Results from this case study contribute critical information toward enhancing understanding of local hydrogeologic features and potential for improved SW-GW resources management in areas near coastal ranges such as those found in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Full article

Stream temperature is one of the most important factors for regulating fish behavior and habitat. Therefore, models that seek to characterize stream temperatures, and predict their changes due to landscape and climatic changes, are extremely important. In this study, we extend a mechanistic stream temperature model within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) by explicitly incorporating radiative flux components to more realistically account for radiative heat exchange. The extended stream temperature model is particularly useful for simulating the impacts of landscape and land use change on stream temperatures using SWAT. The extended model is tested for the Marys River, a western tributary of the Willamette River in Oregon. The results are compared with observed stream temperatures, as well as previous model estimates (without radiative components), for different spatial locations within the Marys River watershed. The results show that the radiative stream temperature model is able to simulate increased stream temperatures in agricultural sub-basins compared with forested sub-basins, reflecting observed data. However, the effect is overestimated, and more noise is generated in the radiative model due to the inclusion of highly variable radiative forcing components. The model works at a daily time step, and further research should investigate modeling at hourly timesteps to further improve the temporal resolution of the model. In addition, other watersheds should be tested to improve and validate the model in different climates, landscapes, and land use regimes. Full article