Search Results (10)

Similarly to “wars” on drugs and terrorism, the fight against corruption has recently emerged as an attractive political tool. From Argentina and India to the United States and the Philippines, anti-corruption rhetoric has been successfully utilized by political outsiders to challenge establishment candidates. It remains less clear, however, whether anti-corruption enforcement allows incumbent politicians to hold on to power. In this article, we use a comparative subnational design to analyze the impact of corruption prosecutions on electoral support for the president of Russia. By combining original survey data on popular political attitudes and behaviors as well as citizens’ own participation in petty corruption with official statistics on corruption prosecutions, on the one hand, and data on media coverage of regional corruption scandals, on the other, we reveal a small negative effect of anti-corruptionism on voting for Putin. Our data allow us to adjudicate among several theoretical mechanisms that may lead to this effect. We find that, although ordinary Russians dislike corruption and expect the federal government to fight it, Putin’s anti-corruption enforcement has failed to convince the population that he is the right man for the job. Some Russians, we argue, take the Kremlin’s prosecutions as an indicator of the regime’s failure to prevent corruption among its agents, while others resent the administration for trying to score political points through hyped-up and punitive anti-corruptionism. Full article

Government plans are crucial for strengthening democratic regimes by defining clear policies and priorities, and by serving as essential channels of communication with voters and social groups within electoral systems. The political commitment to align these plans with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda reflects an effort to integrate global priorities into local agendas. Such alignment is critical for fostering sustainable and inclusive progress. However, despite its importance, research on the intersection between government plans and the SDGs remains limited. In this study, we used natural language processing (NLP), artificial intelligence, and statistical analysis to examine the government plans of ten candidates in the 2022 gubernatorial election in the Brazilian state of São Paulo. Our analysis identified key policy topics, explored patterns and trends, and assessed alignment with the 17 SDGs across the social (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, and 16), environmental (SDGs 6, 13, 14, and 15), and economic (SDGs 7, 8, 9, 11, and 12) dimensions. The findings emphasize the need for government plans that are more closely aligned with sustainable development goals and that demonstrate a strong political commitment to addressing critical issues, particularly the impacts of climate change. This is especially urgent for the state of São Paulo, which faces significant challenges, including natural disasters, heat waves, flooding, water scarcity, and infrastructure deficiencies. Full article

A unifying setup for opinion models originating in statistical physics and stochastic opinion dynamics are developed and used to analyze election data. The results are interpreted in the light of political theory. We investigate the connection between Potts (Curie–Weiss) models and stochastic opinion models in the view of the Boltzmann distribution and stochastic Glauber dynamics. We particularly find that the q-voter model can be considered as a natural extension of the Zealot model, which is adapted by Lagrangian parameters. We also discuss weak and strong effects (also called extensive and nonextensive) continuum limits for the models. The results are used to compare the Curie–Weiss model, two q-voter models (weak and strong effects), and a reinforcement model (weak effects) in explaining electoral outcomes in four western democracies (United States, Great Britain, France, and Germany). We find that particularly the weak effects models are able to fit the data (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test) where the weak effects reinforcement model performs best (AIC). Additionally, we show how the institutional structure shapes the process of opinion formation. By focusing on the dynamics of opinion formation preceding the act of voting, the models discussed in this paper give insights both into the empirical explanation of elections as such, as well as important aspects of the theory of democracy. Therefore, this paper shows the usefulness of an interdisciplinary approach in studying real world political outcomes by using mathematical models. Full article

The emergence of autonomous vehicles (AVs) presents a transformative shift in transportation, promising enhanced safety and economic efficiency. However, a fragmented legislative landscape across the United States hampers AV deployment. This fragmentation creates significant challenges for AV manufacturers and stakeholders. This research contributes by employing advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze state data, aiming to identify factors associated with the likelihood of passing AV-friendly legislation, particularly regarding the requirement for human backup drivers. The findings reveal a nuanced interplay of socio-economic, political, demographic, and safety-related factors influencing the nature of AV legislation. Key variables such as democratic electoral college votes per capita, port tons per capita, population density, road fatalities per capita, and transit agency needs significantly impact legislative outcomes. These insights suggest that a combination of political, economic, and safety considerations shape AV legislation, transcending traditional partisan divides. These findings offer a strategic perspective for developing a harmonized regulatory approach, potentially at the federal level, to foster a conducive environment for AV development and deployment. Full article

The events of January 6^th were a clear example of threats to American democracy. De-democratization is a process that preceded Trump’s election and that can still be seen in the United States and around the world. Social theorist Charles Tilly wrote about how becoming a democracy is not a unidirectional, one-time event or goal, but a non-linear process. This paper analyzes developments in the United States that signal rises and falls in the level of democracy over the last several decades. It discusses Donald Trump’s rise to power, the insurrection on January 6^th, 2021, and the state of inclusion of ethnoracial minorities in the United States. It uses Tilly’s proposed processes of democratization and de-democratization. This more nuanced understanding of democracy and state–society relations helps avoid celebratory stances about the promise of electoral politics as well as pessimistic assessments about the imminent arrival of fascism and authoritarianism. Full article

The climate of division and polarization in the US politics is increasing, going beyond the time in the office of a specific leader. Several political or technological challenges have ended up eroding this trust, making social cohesion difficult. In this context, this research examines the communication strategies of the elected president Biden after the 2020 elections, shedding light on how his legitimacy was built. All the messages that the Democrat published on his personal Twitter account (@JoeBiden) were collected, from the day after the presidential elections (4 November 2020) until his inauguration as president of the United States (20 January 2021). Using a content analysis method on issue/game frame and dissemination of the messages (n = 379), and an analysis of the 100 first keywords, results showed a plan of the Democratic candidate to reinforce the role of public institutions but without interaction with the polarized electorate. In this sense, the strategies of the president-elect related to the promotion of political action, the call for unity, and the fight against the pandemic stood out. The frequent use of words with a positive attitude reveals how Biden avoided confrontation with Donald Trump. Full article

In the United States (US), citizens’ political participation is 15%. Contemporary psychological models explaining political participation are based on education and socioeconomic status, which are unable to explain the overall low political participation figures. The study suggests a holistic approach, with two societal tendencies: increasing work-related stress and diminishing offline social leisure, together with a mediating effect of participatory efficacy to assess associations with the political participation of US voters. The quantitative correlational study uses structural equation modelling (SEM) analysis on the General Social Survey representative sample of US voters (N = 295, M_age = 44.49, SD = 13.43), controlled for education and socioeconomic status. Work-related stress was not significantly associated with political participation (β = 0.08, p = 0.09). Offline social leisure was positively associated with political participation (β = 0.28, p < 0.001). The mediating effect of participatory efficacy on the relationship between offline social leisure and political participation was positive and significant (β = 0.05, p < 0.001). Additional analyses, regression and SEM on the European Social Survey sample (N = 27,604) boosted internal and external validity. Results indicate that offline social leisure is more predictive than education and socioeconomic status, showing that examining societal trends leads to a better understanding of political participation. Full article

Electoral contests around the world are suffering from an increasing distrust triggered by the dissemination of conspiracy theories. Extant research on political communication has largely studied this phenomenon, but, in some cases, it has neglected the relationship between social and legacy media in the breakthrough of a radicalized populism. Based on a wide literature review of liberal democracy and the roots of populism, this study addresses the right-wing populist communicative actions as one of the causes of the fragmentation of the democratic system, defining a journalistic and fact-checking standard to promote a well-informed society. Specifically, our research focus is to illustrate the impact of populist rhetoric on the traditional media system through a multiple-case study applied in European countries affected by right-wing populist discourse following the last United States elections (2020). The results show a connection among the strategies (game frames) used on Twitter, being less clear in the number of retweets and the presence on the front pages of newspapers. These data serve as a guide to build a journalistic indicator, arguing that high-quality information could be the key for democratic systems to minimize populist rhetoric and tackle the disinformation that endangers their future. Full article

The dissemination of fake news during the conduct of an electoral campaign can significantly distort the process by which voters form their opinion on candidates and decide their vote. Cases of disinformation have been happening since the rise of social networks and the last presidential election held in 2020 in the United States was not an exception. The present research aims at analyzing the ways in which political disinformation is generated by different types of sources (social networks users, the media and political candidates) through various channels for communication (social and traditional media). Quantitative and qalitative methods were used to analyze a sample of news published during the election and verified by the most important fact-checking organizations in the United States and Europe. The results indicate that users of social networks spread false information on equal terms with presidential candidates, although the channel preferred to spread misleading messages was social networks in 67.4% of cases. The candidates relied on the use of classic disinformation strategies through traditional media, although the greatest degree of disinformation occurred when conspiratorial hoaxes were circulated through social networks. Full article

Decades of research within political science, political communication, and mass media found pervasive gender biased media coverage of female political candidates. However, recent research suggests that gender stereotypes do not have a consistent effect in all campaign environments and when gender stereotypes are not activated, female candidates are not disadvantaged. As a result, if we see a reduction in reliance on gender stereotypes in the media, female candidates should enjoy a more level playing field. In this analysis, we focus on mass media’s coverage of female candidates in elite executive political races. This study conducts a content analysis of media coverage of three recent women candidates for the United States’ highest executive offices: Senator Hillary Clinton, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, and Governor Sarah Palin. Our analysis of newspapers and television news coverage confirms the media do not discuss female and male candidates in neutral terms, but instead fall back onto traditional gender stereotypes and emphasize female candidates’ physical appearances and family roles far more frequently than they do for male candidates. This may, in turn, prime gender stereotypes in voters, impair candidates’ fundraising ability, and limit the electoral ambition of future generations of female candidates. Full article