Search Results (4)

Siting an offshore wind project is considered a complex planning problem with multiple interrelated objectives and constraints. Hence, compactness and contiguity are indispensable properties in spatial modeling for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) planning processes. The proposed methodology demonstrates the development of a raster-based spatial optimization model for future Offshore Wind Farm (OWF) multi-objective site-prospecting in terms of the simulated Annual Energy Production (AEP), Wind Power Variability (WPV) and the Depth Profile (DP) towards an integer mathematical programming approach. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), statistical modeling, and spatial optimization techniques are fused as a unified framework that allows exploring rigorously and systematically multiple alternatives for OWF planning. The stochastic generation scheme uses a Generalized Hurst-Kolmogorov (GHK) process embedded in a Symmetric-Moving-Average (SMA) model, which is used for the simulation of a wind process, as extracted from the UERRA (MESCAN-SURFEX) reanalysis data. The generated AEP and WPV, along with the bathymetry raster surfaces, are then transferred into the multi-objective spatial optimization algorithm via the Gurobi optimizer. Using a weighted spatial optimization approach, considering and guaranteeing compactness and continuity of the optimal solutions, the final optimal areas (clusters) are extracted for the North and Central Aegean Sea. The optimal OWF clusters, show increased AEP and minimum WPV, particularly across offshore areas from the North-East Aegean (around Lemnos Island) to the Central Aegean Sea (Cyclades Islands). All areas have a Hurst parameter in the range of 0.55–0.63, indicating greater long-term positive autocorrelation in specific areas of the North Aegean Sea. Full article

Wind speed (and direction) estimated from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is essential to wind energy applications, especially in the absence of reliable fine scale spatio-temporal wind information. This study evaluates four high-resolution wind speed numerical datasets (UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX, CERRA, COSMO-REA6, and NEWA) against in situ observations from coastal meteorological stations in the eastern Mediterranean basin. The evaluation is based on statistical comparisons of long-term wind speed data from 2009 to 2018 and involves an in-depth statistical comparison as well as a preliminary wind power density assessment at or near the meteorological station locations. The results show that while all datasets provide valuable insights into regional wind variability, there are notable differences in model performance. COSMO-REA6 and UERRA exhibit higher variability in wind speed but tend to underestimate extreme values, particularly in the southern coastal areas, whereas CERRA and NEWA provided closer fits to observed wind speeds, with CERRA showing the highest correlation at most stations. NEWA data, where available, overestimate average wind speeds but capture extreme values well. The comparison reveals that while all datasets provide valuable insights into the spatial and temporal variability of wind resources, their performance varies by location and season, emphasizing the need for the careful selection and potential calibration of these models for accurate wind energy assessments. The study provides essential groundwork for leveraging these datasets in planning and optimizing offshore wind energy projects, contributing to the region’s transition to renewable energy sources. Full article

The availability of in situ atmospheric observations decreases with elevation and topographic complexity. Data sets based on numerical atmospheric modeling, such as reanalysis data sets, represent an alternative source of information, but they often suffer from inaccuracies, e.g., due to insufficient spatial resolution. sDoG (statistical Downscaling for Glacierized mountain environments) is a reanalysis data postprocessing tool designed to extend short-term weather station data from high mountain sites to the baseline climate. In this study, sDoG is applied to ERA-Interim predictors to produce a retrospective forecast of daily air temperature at the Vernagtbach climate monitoring site (2640 MSL) in the Central European Alps. First, sDoG is trained and cross-validated using observations from 2002 to 2012 (cross-validation period). Then, the sDoG retrospective forecast and its cross-validation-based uncertainty estimates are evaluated for the period 1979–2001 (hereafter referred to as the true evaluation period). We demonstrate the ability of sDoG to model air temperature in the true evaluation period for different temporal scales: day-to-day variations, year-to-year and season-to-season variations, and the 23-year mean seasonal cycle. sDoG adds significant value over a selection of reference data sets available for the site at different spatial resolutions, including state-of-the-art global and regional reanalysis data sets, output by a regional climate model, and an observation-based gridded product. However, we identify limitations of sDoG in modeling summer air temperature variations particularly evident in the first part of the true evaluation period. This is most probably related to changes of the microclimate around the Vernagtbach climate monitoring site that violate the stationarity assumption underlying sDoG. When comparing the performance of the considered reference data sets, we cannot demonstrate added value of the higher resolution data sets over the data sets with lower spatial resolution. For example, the global reanalyses ERA5 (31 km resolution) and ERA-Interim (80 km resolution) both clearly outperform the higher resolution data sets ERA5-Land (9 km resolution), UERRA HARMONIE (11 km resolution), and UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX (5.5 km resolution). Performance differences among ERA5 and ERA-Interim, by contrast, are comparably small. Our study highlights the importance of station-scale uncertainty assessments of atmospheric numerical model output and downscaling products for high mountain areas both for data users and model developers. Full article

Reanalysis data are being increasingly used as gridded weather data sources for assessing crop-reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in irrigation water-budget analyses at regional scales. This study assesses the performances of ET₀ estimates based on weather data, respectively produced by two high-resolution reanalysis datasets: UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX (UMS) and ERA5-Land (E5L). The study is conducted in Campania Region (Southern Italy), with reference to the irrigation seasons (April–September) of years 2008–2018. Temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure deficit, solar radiation and ET₀ derived from reanalysis datasets, were compared with the corresponding estimates obtained by spatially interpolating data observed by a network of 18 automatic weather stations (AWSs). Statistical performances of the spatial interpolations were evaluated with a cross-validation procedure, by recursively applying universal kriging or ordinary kriging to the observed weather data. ERA5-Land outperformed UMS both in weather data and ET₀ estimates. Averaging over all 18 AWSs sites in the region, the normalized BIAS (nBIAS) was found less than 5% for all the databases. The normalized RMSE (nRMSE) for ET₀ computed with E5L data was 17%, while it was 22% with UMS data. Both performances were not far from those obtained by kriging interpolation, which presented an average nRMSE of 14%. Overall, this study confirms that reanalysis can successfully surrogate the unavailability of observed weather data for the regional assessment of ET₀. Full article