Search Results (3)

Typhoon-induced landslides in coastal mountainous regions are controlled by the coupled effects of rainfall, wind, topography, and storm-track geometry. However, conventional static susceptibility models have limited ability to represent event-scale forcing under extreme weather conditions. This study develops a physics-guided dynamic landslide susceptibility framework and retrospectively applies it to the 2017 Tropical Cyclone Cempaka event in Pacitan Regency, Indonesia, where 743 landslides were identified. The framework integrates static terrain factors, antecedent wetness, event-scale rainfall accumulation and intensity, maximum wind speed, and a typhoon geometric exposure index derived from IBTrACS best-track information that represents track proximity, topographic shielding, rainfall-favored quadrant effects, and storm-motion effects. Under spatial block cross-validation, model performance improved progressively from the static baseline to the full-factor model, with the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) increasing from 0.648 to 0.751, the precision–recall area under the curve (PR-AUC) reaching 0.826, and the F1-score reaching 0.744. The full-factor model also reduced missed landslide cases from 328 to 205 and concentrated predicted high-susceptibility zones along the typhoon exposure corridor. Additional parameter-sensitivity analyses further indicate that the event-based E_geo setting produced positive performance increments under the event-consistent quadrant convention. These results indicate that physically meaningful typhoon-exposure information can improve the spatial discrimination and interpretability of event-scale landslide susceptibility assessment. Full article

The Pacitan Regency is at risk of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis due to the seismic gap along the southern region of Java Island, making risk-reduction efforts crucial. This research aims to analyse the tsunami risk associated with a potential megathrust earthquake scenario in Pacitan’s coastal areas and develop sustainable mitigation strategies. The research employs spatial analysis to evaluate the risk and subsequently formulate strategies for long-term mitigation. A weighted overlay method was utilised to integrate hazard (H) and vulnerability (V) datasets to produce a tsunami risk map (R). The hazard component was modelled using a tsunami propagation simulation based on the Shallow Water Equations in the Delft3D-Flow software, incorporating an earthquake scenario of Mw 8.8 and H-loss calculations in ArcGIS Pro 10.3. The vulnerability assessment was conducted by overlaying population density, land use, and building footprint from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) datasets. Finally, sustainable strategies were proposed to mitigate the tsunami risk effectively. The results show that Pacitan faces significant tsunami disaster risk, with tsunami waves at the coast reaching 16.6 m. Because the coast of Pacitan is densely populated, mitigation strategies are necessary, and in the present contribution, the authors developed holistic spatial planning, which prioritise the preservation and restoration of natural barriers, such as mangroves and coastal forests. Full article

Background: East Java has become one of the provinces that have higher prevalence of leprosy, especially in the coastal region. Environment has also influenced for leprosy transmission and early detection could reduce the incidence rate of new leprosy cases. Epidemiological studies of leprosy in children can give an illustration of the important aspects of the environment. Presence of Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae) DNA in nasal swabs and seropositivity level among them can describe M. leprae exposure in that area. Objective: Analyzing PCR from nasal swab and seropositivity level among elementary school children between northern coast and southern coast of East Java province. Methods: Five hundred and thirty children in Pacitan and Lamongan were involved. Both areas are representation of northern and southern coastal region in East Java Province. After clinical examination, nasal swab and blood samples were obtained. ELISA test was performed to measure the titer of IgM anti Phenolic Glicolipid-1 (PGL-1) antibody then continued by PCR to detect M. leprae DNA. Results: From 301 students in Pacitan, 25 students (8.3%) are sero-positives and 9 students (2.9%) are PCR positives. from 229 students in Lamongan, 110 (48.3%) students are sero-positives and 49 students (21.4%) are PCR positives. Both are analyzed by Chi-Square, and from the PCR and ELISA, it concluded that there are statistically significant differences between the two regions. Conclusion: From study above shows that in the northern coast of East Java, incidence of subclinical leprosy is still high, it means that in this area still has a high risk of new cases of leprosy in the future and early detection tools need to performed as a preventative measure. Full article