Search Results (4)

Modelling at the basin scale offers crucial insights for policymakers as they make decisions regarding the optimal utilization of water resources. This study employed the MIKE HYDRO Basin model to analyse water demand and supply dynamics in the Parvati Basin of Rajasthan, India, for the period 2005–2020. The MIKE11 NAM model showcased strong alignment between simulated and observed runoff during both the calibration (NSE = 0.79, PBIAS = −2%, R² = 0.79, RMSE = 4.95, RSR = 0.5, and KGE = 0.84) and validation (NSE = 0.67, PBIAS = −12.4%, R² = 0.68, RMSE = 8.3, RSR = 0.62, and KGE = 0.67) phases. The MIKE HYDRO Basin model also exhibited excellent agreement between observed and simulated reservoir water levels, with R², NSE, RMSE, PBIAS, RSR, and KGE values of 0.86, 0.81, 3.87, −2.30%, 0.43, and 0.88, respectively. The MIKE HYDRO Basin model was employed to create six distinct scenarios, considering conveyance efficiency, irrigation method, and conjunctive water use, to assess irrigation demands and deficits within the basin. In the initial simulation, featuring a conveyance efficiency of 45%, flood irrigation, and no groundwater utilization, the average water demand and deficit throughout the study period were estimated as 43.15 MCM and 3.45 MCM, respectively, resulting in a sustainability index of 0.506. Enhancing conveyance efficiency to 75% under flood irrigation and 5% conjunctive use could elevate the sustainability index to 0.92. Transitioning to sprinkler irrigation and a lift irrigation system could raise the system’s sustainability index to 1. These developed models hold promise for real-time reservoir operation and irrigation planning across diverse climatic conditions and varying cropping patterns. Full article

Hydropower development brings benefits in terms of power generation and flood control, but it also has inevitable ecological impacts. These impacts must be considered and addressed in order to ensure sustainable development and minimize harm to the environment. This study utilized the MIKE 11 HD modeling system to construct a hydrological and hydrodynamic model of the Jianhe River basin. The model incorporates the flow demand of ecologically sensitive targets for scheduling purposes and was calibrated and validated using hydrological data from 2014 to 2022. The hydrodynamic model was then applied to analyze the evolution characteristics of the water level in the main stream of the Jianhe River, identify key areas and periods for hydropower station operation, and calculate the minimum ecological water requirement using verification and estimation methods. Based on these findings, an ecological dispatching scheme for the cascade hydropower stations in the Jianhe River basin was developed. The results demonstrate satisfactory performance of the constructed NAM model for rainfall runoff and the 1D hydrodynamic MIKE 11 HD model for the Jianhe River basin. The deterministic coefficients exceed 0.8, and the relative errors in the total water volume are below 5.5%. The critical time and space interval for hydropower station operation in the main stream of the Jianhe River is identified as December to February of the following year, with the highest risk of flow interruption occurring in January, primarily concentrated between the Duoluo II and Huahai hydropower stations. If the appropriate dispatching scheme is not implemented in the areas prone to flow interruption during critical periods, it will have a negative impact on the ecological environment. These findings provide a scientific basis and decision support for developing multi-objective ecological flow guarantee schemes for rivers. Full article

Mountainous watersheds have always been a challenge for modelers due to large variability and insufficient ground observations, which cause forcing data, model structure, and parameter uncertainty. This study employed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm which utilizes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to account for forcing data uncertainty. A conceptual degree day snowmelt model, MIKE 11 NAM (Nedbor Afstromnings Model), was used to simulate snowmelt runoff from Ilgaz basin, with an area of 28.4 km² area, located in the northern part of Turkey. The mean elevation is around 1700 m and the basin is covered with broadleaf forest and has mainly brown soil with a high water holding capacity. Precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) values were optimized in combination with model parameters conditioned on observed discharges and corrected values of input data were utilized for calibration and validation. Results showed that the observed precipitation was over-estimated by almost 10%, while evapotranspiration calculated by Penman–Monteith method was underestimated. The mean values of storm and ET multipliers were obtained as 1.14 and 0.84, respectively. When only parameter uncertainty was considered, calibration did not yield Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.64. However, when forcing data uncertainty was incorporated in the DREAM approach, an improved value of NSE (0.84) was obtained. After calibration and treatment of forcing data errors, the model yielded reasonable prediction uncertainty bounds and well-defined posterior distributions of NAM model parameters. Main objectives of the study are to assess the applicability of MIKE 11 NAM model to the selected catchment. In addition, the importance of errors in the input forcing variables to the model is demonstrated. Full article

In order to predict and control the impacts of floods in torrents, it is important to verify the simulation accuracy of the most used hydrological models. The performance verification is particularly needed for applications in watersheds with peculiar climatic and geomorphological characteristics, such as the Mediterranean torrents. Moreover, in addition to the accuracy, other factors affect the choice of software by stakeholders (users, modellers, researchers, etc.). This study introduces a “performance matrix”, consisting of several evaluation parameters weighted by stakeholders’ opinions. The aim is to evaluate the accuracy of the flood prediction which is achieved by different models, as well as the pros and cons of software user experience. To this aim, the performances and requisites of four physical-based and conceptual models (HEC-HMS, SWMM, MIKE11 NAM and WEC-FLOOD) have been evaluated, by predicting floods in a midsized Mediterranean watershed (Mèsima torrent, Calabria, Southern Italy). In the case study, HEC-HMS and MIKE 11 NAM were the best computer models (with a weighted score of 4.45 and 4.43, respectively), thanks to their low complexity and computation effort, as well as good user interface and prediction accuracy. However, MIKE11 NAM is not free of charge. SWMM showed a lower prediction accuracy, which put the model in third place of the four models. The performance of WEC-FLOOD, although not being as good as for the other tested models, can be considered overall acceptable in comparison to the other well-consolidated models, considering that WEC-FLOOD is in the early stage of development. Overall, the proposal of the performance matrix for hydrological models may represent a first step in building a more complete evaluation framework of the hydrological and hydraulic commercial models, in order to give indications to allow potential users to make an optimal choice. Full article