Search Results (8)

In Romania, natural gas production is concentrated in two large producers, OMV Petrom and Romgaz. However, there are also smaller companies in the natural gas production area. In these companies, the deposits are mostly mature, or new deposits have low production capacity. Thus, the production forecast is very important for the continued existence of these companies. The model is based on the pressure variation in the gas reservoir, and the exponential model with production decline is currently used by gas and oil producers. Following the variation in the production of the gas wells, we found that in many cases, the Gaussian and Hubbert forecast models are more suitable for simulating the production pattern of gas wells. The models used to belong to the category of poorly conditioned models, with little data, usually called gray models. Papers published in this category are based on data collected over a period of time and provide a forecast of the model for the next period. The mathematical method can lead to a very good approximation of the known data, as well as short-term forecasting in the continuation of the time interval, for which we have these data. The neural network method requires more data for the network learning stage. Increasing the number of known variables is conducive to a successful model. Often, we do not have this data, or obtaining it is expensive and uneconomical for short periods of possible exploitation. The network model sometimes captures a fairly local pattern and changing conditions require the model to be remade. The model is not valid for a large category of gas wells. The Hubbert and Gauss models used in the article have a more comprehensive character, including a wide category of gas wells whose behavior as evolutionary stages is similar. The model is adapted according to practical observations by reducing the production growth period; the layout is asymmetric around the production peak; and the production range is reduced. Thus, an attempt is made to replace the exponential model with the Hubbert and Gauss models, which were found to be in good agreement with the production values. These models were completed using the Monte Carlo method and matrix of risk evaluation. A better appreciation of monthly production, which is an important aspect of supply contracts, and cumulative production, which is important for evaluating the utility of the investment, is ensured. In addition, we can determine the risk associated with the realization of production at a certain moment of exploitation, generating a complete picture of the forecast over the entire operating interval. A comparison with production results on a case study confirms the benefits of the forecasting procedure used. Full article

Hubbert suggests that oil extraction rates will have an exponentially increasing course until they reach their highest level and then they will suddenly decline. This best describes the well-acclaimed Peak Oil Theory or Peak Oil. We research whether the theory is validated in seven US plays after the shale revolution. We do so by applying two well-established methodologies for asset bubble detection in capital markets on productivity rates per day (bbl/d). Our hypothesis is that if there is a past or an ongoing oil extraction rate peak then Hubbert’s model is verified. If there are multiple episodes of productivity peaks, then it is rejected. We find that the Peak Theory is not confirmed and that shale production mainly responds to demand signals. Therefore, the oil production curve is flattened prolonging oil dependency and energy transition. Since the US production is free of geological constraints, then maximum productivity may not ever be reached due to lower demand levels. Past market failures make the US producers more cautious with productivity increases. Our period is between January 2008 and December 2021. Full article

This paper presents an effort pertaining to the simulation of the future production in Pakistan of different primary energy resources, i.e., coal, natural gas and crude oil, thereby constructing Hubbert peaks. In this context, the past 45 years’ production data of primary energy resources of Pakistan have been analyzed and simulated using a generic STELLA (Systems Thinking, Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation) model. The results show that the Hubbert peak of Pakistan’s crude oil production has been somehow already achieved in 2013, with the highest production of 4.52 million toe, which is 1.51 times the production in 2000. Similarly, the natural gas peak production is expected in 2024 with a production of 32.70 million toe which shall be 1.96-fold the extraction of the resource in the year 2000. On the other hand, the coal production in the country has been historically very low and with a constant production rate that is gradually picking up, the peak production year for the coal is anticipated to be in the year 2080 with an estimated production of 134.06 million. Based on the results of this study, which provide a greater understanding of future energy patterns, it is recommended that an energy security policy be devised for the country to ensure sustained supplies in the future. Full article

Because of their unique physical and chemical properties, Rare earth elements (REEs) perform important functions in our everyday lives, with use in a range of products. Recently, the study of China’s rare earth elements production has become a hot topic of worldwide interest, because of its dominant position in global rare earth elements supply, and an increasing demand for rare earth elements due to the constant use of rare earth elements in high-tech manufacturing industries. At the same time, as an exhaustible resource, the sustainable development of rare earth elements has received extensive attention. However, most of the study results are based on a qualitative analysis of rare earth elements distribution and production capacity, with few studies using quantitative modeling. To achieve reliable results with more factors being taken into consideration, this paper applies the generic multivariant system dynamics model to forecast China’s rare earth elements production trend and Hubbert peak, using Vensim software based on the Hubbert model. The results show that the peak of China’s rare earth elements production will appear by 2040, and that production will slowly decline afterwards. Based on the results, the paper proposes some policy recommendations for the sustainable development of China’s—and the world’s—rare earth elements market and rare earth-related industries. Full article

Although Raymond De Young points out the current response to energy descent he terms localization “is not globalization in reverse”, the writers of modernity’s energy ramp-up used many of the same techniques De Young proposes for adapting to the downslope of M. King Hubbert’s fossil-fuels peak. Among these is pre-familiarization, the construction of mental models that “help people to feel at home in a place they have not yet inhabited.” Long before William Catton’s depiction of the West’s outsized energy user as Homo colossus, for example, Joel Barlow provided early national Americans with a reflection of themselves as gigantic consumers of the continent’s bounty in his 1787 Vision of Columbus. In the epic poem, Barlow puts in place foundational elements of the myth of progress that will develop with an increasingly extravagant energy consumption: a refutation of the classical republican model of history as cyclical; a conflation of the process of resource extraction with that of production; a characterization of this “production” as the natural trait of the knowledgeable, moral Western subject; the pairing of this characterization with a racialized discourse; and an assertion of climate melioration that anticipates by two centuries the counter-arguments of anthropogenic climate-change denialists. The poem invites its reader to inhabit the skin of a lofty and distanced observer of natural life, drawing on the earlier century’s infatuation with the prospect view, to help the reader become “pre-familiarized” with an idea of him- or herself fitting an economic model of endless growth. In the work, therefore, might be found not only the blueprints for an as-yet inchoate Anthropocene, but also the design of a new humanity to go along with it. Full article

Forty years ago, the results of modeling, as presented in The Limits to Growth, reinvigorated a discussion about exponentially growing consumption of natural resources, ranging from metals to fossil fuels to atmospheric capacity, and how such consumption could not continue far into the future. Fifteen years earlier, M. King Hubbert had made the projection that petroleum production in the continental United States would likely reach a maximum around 1970, followed by a world production maximum a few decades later. The debate about “peak oil”, as it has come to be called, is accompanied by some of the same vociferous denials, myths and ideological polemicizing that have surrounded later representations of The Limits to Growth. In this review, we present several lines of evidence as to why arguments for a near-term peak in world conventional oil production should be taken seriously—both in the sense that there is strong evidence for peak oil and in the sense that being societally unprepared for declining oil production will have serious consequences. Full article

The well known “Hubbert curve” assumes that the production curve of a crude oil in a free market economy is “bell shaped” and symmetric. The model was first applied in the 1950s as a way of forecasting the production of crude oil in the US lower 48 states. Today, variants of the model are often used for describing the worldwide production of crude oil, which is supposed to reach a global production peak (“peak oil”) and to decline afterwards. The model has also been shown to be generally valid for mineral resources other than crude oil and also for slowly renewable biological resources such as whales. Despite its widespread use, Hubbert’s modelis sometimes criticized for being arbitrary and its underlying assumptions are rarely examined. In the present work, we use a simple model to generate the bell shaped curve curve using the smallest possible number of assumptions, taking also into account the “Energy Return to Energy Invested” (EROI or EROEI) parameter. We show that this model can reproduce several historical cases, even for resources other than crude oil, and provide a useful tool for understanding the general mechanisms of resource exploitation and the future of energy production in the world’s economy. Full article

In this article, the U.S. and southern Canadian natural gas supply market is considered. An important model for oil and natural gas supply is the Hubbert curve. Not all regions of the world are producing oil or natural gas following a Hubbert curve, even when price and market conditions are accounted for. One reason is that institutions are affecting supply. We investigate the possible effects of oil and gas market institutions in North America on natural gas supply. A multi-cycle Hubbert curve with inflection points similar to the Soviet Union’s oil production multi-cycle Hubbert curve is used to determine North American natural gas discovery rates and to analyze how market specific institutions caused the inflection points. In addition, we analyze the latest shale natural gas projections critically. While currently, unconventional resources of natural gas suggest that North American natural gas production will increase without bound, the model here suggests a peak in North American natural gas supplies could happen in 2013. Full article