Search Results (73)

In this paper, multi-option probabilistic paired comparison models are presented and applied for prediction. As these models operate on the basis of probabilities, they can estimate the likelihood of future outcomes and thus predict future events. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate that these models have strong predictive capabilities when the information embedded into the data is properly utilized. To this end, we incorporate the degree (e.g., large or small) of the differences between the compared objects. By refining the usual three-option model, we define a five-option model capable of leveraging information derived from the goal differences. To incorporate additional information, the model is further extended to account for potential advantages in the comparisons. As a further refinement, temporal weighting is also introduced. These models are applied to forecasting football match outcomes in the top five European leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1), and their predictive performance is evaluated using various metrics. Based on the most recent football seasons, this model consistently delivers better predictive metrics, on average, than those of the already strong benchmark model. The effect of a home-field advantage is statistically supported across all five leagues. The model fits are illustrated using confidence intervals, and, as an interesting insight, we also present the evolution of the team strengths for the top four English clubs during the 2023/24 season. Full article

Shots on target are a crucial factor in football performance, yet the impact of categorizing shots as low or ground-level and high or parabolic has not been fully explored. The objective of this study was to analyze whether there are differences in the frequency and effectiveness (as measured by xGOT) between parabolic and low shots on target in international men’s and women’s football competitions. The results revealed that the most common shot type was the parabolic shot, occurring in 59.86% of shots on goal in the men’s competition (270 shots) and 67.12% in the women’s competition (196 shots). In the overall set of shots, 62.77% were parabolic (466 shots). No significant differences were observed between the competitions (p > 0.05). Regarding the xGOT values, no significant differences were observed for any of the interaction effects analyzed (gender, shot type and shot outcome). The conclusion was that the parabolic shot was the most frequent type of shot on target in both men’s and women’s football. Full article

Football is a low-scoring sport where a single goal can determine a team’s success. Understanding shot effectiveness and goalkeeper performance is crucial for optimizing match success. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of shots and goalkeeper interventions by identifying the most favorable areas on the field and within the goal. An observational notational analysis was conducted on 15,266 on-target shots from five major European leagues (Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1) during the 2022/2023 season. Data were extracted from FotMob and analyzed in SPSS using Pearson’s chi-square test (χ²) and adjusted residuals (AR) to determine significant patterns. Field and goal zones were divided based on previous studies, with the penalty area receiving further subdivisions due to its relevance to the analysis. The results indicated that match context, target areas within the goal, field zones, and previously identified high-effectiveness areas significantly influenced shot success (χ² < 0.001). Similarly, a significant association was found between the shooting foot and the side of attack (χ² < 0.001), while the body part used did not significantly affect the outcome (χ² = 0.077). Understanding these patterns helps coaches and players optimize team performance. Future studies should analyze additional seasons to confirm these results. Full article

Background/Objectives: The number of systematic reviews evaluating the incidence of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries in sports is increasing. To synthesize pooled incidence and prevalence rates of sport-related ACL injuries based on published systematic reviews with meta-analyses. Methods: An overview of systematic reviews with meta-analysis was conducted. The CINAHL, Embase, PubMed, and SPORTDiscus databases were searched from inception to 17 October 2023. AMSTAR 2 was used to assess the methodological quality of reviews. The degree of overlap between reviews was calculated when possible. Results: Seven systematic reviews including 51 meta-analyses of interest were included. The prevalence of ACL injuries was not meta-analyzed. Meta-analyses mainly showed that ACL injuries may have a high incidence in American football, basketball, European football/soccer, and volleyball, among other sports. In addition, ACL injuries may have a higher incidence in females than males in some sports. For example, the pooled incidence rates of ACL injuries in basketball ranged from 0.091 (95%CI, 0.074–0.111) to 0.110 (95%CI, 0.094–0.128) among female athletes, whereas this incidence ranged from 0.024 (95%CI, 0.016–0.034) to 0.027 (95%CI, 0.019–0.035) among male athletes. Conclusions: Sport-related ACL injuries may have a high incidence in sports such as American football, basketball, European football/soccer, or volleyball and show differences between sexes. Therefore, a sex-specific prevention of these injuries may be needed. Full article

Background: Early-maturing players tend to have physical advantages during formative stages, but it remains unclear whether these advantages translate into long-term professional success. This study examines how biological maturation influences participation and career trajectories in youth football. Methods: Anthropometric and competitive data were collected from 47 players (13.53 ± 1.08 years) in a top-tier academy during the 2010–2011 season. The maturation status was assessed using the Tanner–Whitehouse II RUS method, and the career outcomes were tracked in 2024–2025. Results: Early-maturing players showed higher anthropometric values and greater participation. However, late maturers were more likely to reach professional football (p = 0.003), with all players competing in the top five European leagues belonging to the late-maturing group. Conclusions: Early maturation does not guarantee professional success. Strategies such as bio-banding and personalized training can reduce biases and support talent development, highlighting the need for a more holistic approach to player evaluation. Full article

This study aimed to examine how playing at home affects individual football performance in the top five European leagues (LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Premier League, and Ligue 1) using offensive and defensive statistics. A secondary goal was to determine if these performance differences vary by field position. Offensive variables (season goals, assists, and key passes per game) and defensive variables (tackles, interceptions, and fouls per game) were analysed over eight seasons for 4337 players. Significant differences were found between home and away matches, particularly in goals (p < 0.001), assists (p < 0.001), and key passes (p < 0.001), all of which were higher at home. Defensive metrics like interceptions and fouls showed no significant differences, though tackles were higher away (p = 0.013). A positional analysis revealed that forwards and midfielders had significantly more goals (p < 0.001 for both) and assists (p = 0.008 for forwards, p = 0.029 for midfielders) at home. Defenders also had significantly more goals (p < 0.001) and assists (p < 0.001), while committing fewer fouls at home (p = 0.005). These findings suggest that playing at home significantly boosts individual performance, especially in offensive metrics. Coaches should adjust strategies based on if the match is at home or away, while considering individual player strengths and positions. Full article

This study investigates how effectively European football clubs communicate and implement accessibility features for disabled fans, aiming to develop a comprehensive framework for evaluating these practices. Using a multi-phase research design, the study analyzes disability support systems through semi-structured interviews with representatives from eleven European football clubs and a systematic analysis of club documentation. The methodology combined traditional qualitative analysis with large language model (LLM)-assisted content analysis, enabling robust identification of thematic patterns and performance indicators. Our findings reveal significant disparities in disability support practices, with larger clubs demonstrating structured approaches through dedicated Disability Access Officers (DAOs) and comprehensive communication strategies. Analysis identified three distinct performance tiers: Elite Performers, primarily well-resourced clubs with advanced systems; Solid Performers, mid-tier clubs with established frameworks; and Developing Systems, smaller organizations with emerging support structures. We present a validated Fan Communication Model incorporating key weighted criteria, including infrastructure, dedicated personnel, engagement, specific adaptations, ticketing, challenge management, and feedback systems. This model provides a standardized framework for evaluating disability support communication in football organizations. The research demonstrates the importance of integrating technological solutions with human-centered approaches while maintaining universal design principles. Our findings contribute to the sports accessibility literature and provide evidence-based recommendations for football organizations seeking to enhance their communication with disabled fans. Full article

This study explores market value depreciation among soccer players across the top five European leagues, addressing a critical gap in the sports finance literature by focusing on post-prime valuation dynamics. Leveraging a dataset from the 2023/2024 season, player market values and attributes sourced from Transfermarkt and Sportmonks were analyzed using league-specific multilinear regression models. The findings reveal a consistent decline in market values beginning at age 27, with notable variation across leagues. The German Bundesliga demonstrates the steepest depreciation rates, suggesting shorter career peaks or distinct market dynamics. In contrast, the Italian Serie A and Spanish La Liga exhibit the slowest depreciation rates, preserving player value for older athletes longer than other leagues. The English Premier League and French Ligue 1 show moderate depreciation, with the Premier League’s decline closely aligning with Ligue 1 and diverging less from other leagues than traditionally assumed. These results challenge preconceived narratives about league-specific player valuations and offer empirical insights into the transfer market. By providing a nuanced understanding of depreciation trends, this study can inform strategic decisions for agents, managers, and clubs, particularly in optimizing contract negotiations, transfer strategies, and long-term asset management in professional football. Full article

Professional football clubs invest vast amounts of money in the recruitment of players. This article presents the latest advances in statistical modeling of the factors that market actors take into consideration to determine the transfer prices of professional football players. It extends to a global scale the econometric approach previously developed by the authors to evaluate the transfer prices of players under contract with clubs from the five major European leagues. The statistical technique used to build the model is multiple linear regression (MLR), with fees paid by clubs as an independent variable. The sample comprises over 8000 transactions of players transferred for money from clubs worldwide during the period stretching from July 2014 to March 2024. This paper shows that a statistical model can explain up to 85% of the differences in the transfer fees paid for players. Despite the specific cases and other possible distortions mentioned in the discussion, the use of a statistical model to determine player transfer prices is thus highly relevant on a global scale. Full article

There are concerns over the impact of the congested international match calendar on professional footballers’ physical and mental well-being, and injury susceptibility. This study aimed to determine whether there were differences in match workload and international travel between injured and non-injured male football players over two elite competition seasons. An observational, retrospective, case–control study was conducted using data from the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 seasons of five top-tier European men’s football leagues. Student t-tests were used to compare cumulative match workload and international travel data over a 28-day period preceding 1270 injuries and 2540 controls. There were significant differences in match workload and international travel variables between the injured groups (all injuries and hamstring injuries) and the control group. Match workload variables were higher (p < 0.01), recovery variables lower (p < 0.01), and international travel variables higher (p < 0.01). An overload of match workload and international travel contribute to increased injury susceptibility in professional men’s football. This emphasizes the need to address international match calendar concerns, including the number of games per season, the frequency of back-to-back games, and international travel requirements. Additionally, the findings highlight the importance of monitoring player match workloads, and implementing squad rotations and tailored training programs to mitigate injury risks. Full article

The objective of the present paper is to put a milestone on the roadmap toward a global economic system of professional sport, at least as regards its financial dimension, i.e., its model of finance, its ownership, and some new trends in global sport finance. Professional sport went through a radical change during the 1990s when switching from gate receipts to TV rights revenues as its major source of finance and from local/domestic to internationalised/globalised sources of revenue. This change was more marked in European soccer (football) before spreading throughout other professional sport disciplines. In fact, the whole distribution of sport financing was restructured as shown in this paper. Starting from this evidence of the first stage of sport finance globalisation, it appears that new transformations have been at work in sport finance more recently. In particular, soccer moved from globalisation of flows (revenues, finance) to asset globalisation in terms of club ownership. At last, this paper discusses the emergence of new trends in global sport finance such as treating professional (soccer) players as financial assets and crypto-assets penetrating the sports business. Full article

The point of departure for this study is an incident in 2020 when a football manager testifying in a Lisbon court used the pronoun of address você and was reprimanded. With the aid of corpus linguistics, we qualitatively analyse the comments (understood as metacomments) that this case generated on media outlets and social media. The main conclusion is that the sociocultural foundations of EP (European Portuguese) address are polarised and unstable based on the following: the nexus between forms of address and the expression of (im)politeness is often rejected, with concerns that a complex system of address might impede an egalitarian society; despite this, discernment remains a core facet, expressed in the concern for finding appropriate sociolinguistic rules so as to arrive at forms understood as intrinsically (im)polite. Furthermore, a binary T/V dimension does not apply to the EP system, and although a N (neutral) dimension should be added, the polarised perceptions of EP address preclude clear candidates not only for the N platform but also, to an extent, for the V dimension. Fifty years after the 1974 ‘Carnation’ Revolution that initiated the transition to democracy in Portugal, EP conceptualisations of address show that sociocultural concerns for an egalitarian society coexist with persistent concerns for hierarchy and rules. Full article

Momentum has been a consistently studied aspect of sports science for decades. Among the established literature, there has, at times, been a discrepancy between conclusions. However, if momentum is indeed an actual phenomenon, it would affect all aspects of sports, from player evaluation to pre-game prediction and betting. Therefore, using momentum-based features that quantify a team’s linear trend of play, we develop a data pipeline that uses a small sample of recent games to assess teams’ quality of play and measure the predictive power of momentum-based features versus the predictive power of more traditional frequency-based features across several leagues using several machine learning techniques. More precisely, we use our pipeline to determine the differences in the predictive power of momentum-based features and standard statistical features for the National Hockey League (NHL), National Basketball Association (NBA), and five major first-division European football leagues. Our findings show little evidence that momentum has superior predictive power in the NBA. Still, we found some instances of the effects of momentum on the NHL that produced better pre-game predictors, whereas we view a similar trend in European football/soccer. Our results indicate that momentum-based features combined with frequency-based features could improve pre-game prediction models and that, in the future, momentum should be studied more from a feature/performance indicator point-of-view and less from the view of the dependence of sequential outcomes, thus attempting to distance momentum from the binary view of winning and losing. Full article

Background: Melatonin is a hormone that has shown anti-inflammatory actions, reduced oxidative stress, and has effects on physical performance, so the aim of this study was to review the effects of melatonin supplementation on the performance of professional soccer players. Methods: Critical and systematic review. Data were obtained by performing searches in the following bibliographic databases: Web of Science, MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase, Cochrane Library, and Scopus. The terms used were “Soccer Athlete”, “Melatonin”, and “Soccer Performance”, using “Humans” as a filter. The search update was in May 2023. Results: Having applied the inclusion and exclusion criteria, eight articles were selected out of 59 retrieved references. The dose of melatonin administered in the studies ranged between 5 and 8 mg. The outcomes showed a decrease in oxidative stress, muscle damage, and inflammatory markers in the melatonin-treated group. Conclusions: Exogenously administered melatonin seems to attenuate some of the effects derived from physical exercise, such as oxidative stress, inflammation, and muscle damage, in professional football players, and since it has no potential adverse effects, it could be interesting to apply it in this population. However, the direct effects of melatonin supplementation on physical performance have not been demonstrated, so more research is needed on the intervention period and effective dose and with larger participant populations. Full article

Vitamins, hormones, free radicals, and antioxidant substances significantly influence athletic performance. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether these biological mediators changed during the season and if this was associated with the rate of improvement in performance after training, assessed by means of a standardized test. Professional male soccer players took part in the study. Two evaluations were performed: the first in the pre-season period and the second at the mid-point of the official season, after about 6 months of intensive training and weekly matches. Blood levels of vitamins D, B12, and folic acid, testosterone and cortisol, free radicals, and antioxidant substances were measured. Two hours after breakfast, a Yo-Yo test was performed. The relationships between the biological mediators and the rate of improvement after training (i.e., the increase in meters run in the Yo-Yo test between the pre-season and mid-season periods) were evaluated by means of a linear mixed models analysis. Results: Eighty-two paired tests were performed. The athletes showed better performance after training, with an increase in the meters run of about 20%. No significant relationships between the vitamin and hormone values and the gain in the performance test were observed. Plasmatic levels of free radicals increased significantly, as did the blood antioxidant potential. An indirect relationship between oxidative stress and the improvement in performance was observed (free radicals β ± SE: = −0.33 ± 0.10; p-value = 0.001), with lower levels of oxidative stress being associated with higher levels of performance in the Yo-Yo test. Monitoring the measures of oxidative stress could be a useful additional tool for coaches in training and/or recovery programs tailored to each player. Full article