Search Results (3)

As a semi-arid to semi-humid transitional zone, the Loess Plateau is sensitive to climate change due to its fragile ecological environment and geographic features. This study assesses the performance of six historical experiments from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in this region during 1980–2005. In addition, projected future changes in surface air temperature and precipitation are investigated under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 during three periods in the 21st century: the early future (2011–2040), middle future (2041–2070), and late future (2071–2099). Results show that experiments reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of 2m temperature and precipitation for all seasons, yet with a slight warm bias and prominent wet bias. In the future, the area-averaged magnitude of change will be 1.1 °C, 1.4 °C, and 1.4 °C under RCP2.6 and 1.3 °C, 2.7 °C, and 4.5 °C under RCP8.5 for the early, middle, and late periods, respectively. The warming effect is greater in elevated areas. Precipitation change in future periods is more complex, with both increasing and decreasing trends, depending on the season, location, and scenario. The results are expected to provide regional climate information for decision makers and benefit applications such as agriculture, ecological environment protection, and water resource management. Full article

The changes of agro-climate and heat extremes, and their impact on rice cultivation are assessed over South Korea in context of 2 and 3 °C global warming levels (GWL) compared to pre-industrial levels, with ensemble regional climate model projection produced under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–East Asia (CORDEX-EA) phase 2 protocols. It is found that the mean temperature increase under global warming has not only positive effects such as the extension of vegetable and crop periods and the widening of the cultivatable regions but also negative effects due to the shortening of the reproductive growth period. On the other hand, extreme heat changes in the future clearly show a negative effect on rice cultivation via the increase of hot days during heat-sensitive stages (27.16% under 2 °C GWL, 54.59% under 3 °C GWL) among rice phenology which determines the rice yield in tandem with rice flowering, ripening, and sterility problems. The major type of heat extreme is dominated by nationwide warm anomalies covering entire S. Korea, and the proportion of this type is projected to increase from 35.8% to 49.5% (57.4%) under 2 °C (3 °C) GWL in association with the thermal expansion of atmosphere which links to the favorable environment for occurring barotropic anti-cyclonic system. Full article

This paper estimates the likely impacts of future climate change on streamflow, especially the hydrological extremes over the Yangtze River basin. The future climate was projected by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in East Asia (CORDEX-EA) initiative for the periods 2020–2049 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. The bias corrected outputs from five regional climate models (RCMs) were used in conjunction with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model to produce hydrological projections. For the future climate of the Yangtze River basin, outputs from an ensemble of RCMs indicate that the annual mean temperature will increase for 2020–2049 by 1.81 °C for RCP4.5 and by 2.26 °C for RCP8.5. The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 3.62% under RCP4.5 and 7.65% under RCP8.5. Overall, increases in precipitation are amplified in streamflow, and the change in streamflow also shows significant temporal and spatial variations and large divergence between regional climate models. At the same time, the maximum streamflow in different durations are also projected to increase at three mainstream gauging stations based on flood frequency analysis. In particular, larger increases in maximum 1-day streamflow (+14.24% on average) compared to 5-day and 15-day water volumes (+12.79% and +10.24%) indicate that this projected extreme streamflow increase would be primarily due to intense short-period rainfall events. It is necessary to consider the impacts of climate change in future water resource management. Full article