Development Bursts, Socio-Technical Congruence, and Delivery Reliability in Distributed Open-Source Software Projects

Socio-technical congruence (STC) theory posits that software development effectiveness depends on the degree to which developer coordination aligns with technical requirements. However, much existing research treats congruence as a static project attribute, overlooking the dynamic coordination needs that arise during periods of intensive development. This study addresses this gap by examining development bursts, brief episodes of significant technical change and collaboration that alter coordination demands. Using fixed-effects regression models, the analysis examines 45,981 development bursts from 6401 open-source software projects. The findings show that higher burst intensity is positively associated with both congruence and delivery throughput, suggesting that effective collaboration often centers on shared integration challenges. Conversely, higher coordination complexity is associated with lower congruence and reduced delivery reliability, indicating that the main risks associated with bursts stem from structural rather than purely volumetric factors. Team experience also mitigates the negative effects of complexity on congruence, highlighting the importance of accumulated coordination capability. However, after accounting for demand-side factors, the relationship between congruence and delivery reliability becomes negative, indicating that congruence observed during bursts reflects not only alignment quality but also coordination burden. These findings extend STC theory by reconceptualizing congruence as a dynamic state and emphasizing the need to understand its evolution in high-frequency coordination contexts.