Pneumonic Plague: Incidence, Transmissibility and Future Risks
Abstract
:1. Introduction
“Pneumonic plague must be considered highly contagious whenever it occurs, although person-to-person transmission is most likely in cold humid environments coupled with overcrowding.”
2. The Location and Frequency of PP Outbreaks
“Pneumonic plague is highly contagious. It is, however, rare (less than 3 per cent. of all cases) and plays a very small part in the general spread of the disease.”
“The incidence of pneumonic plague in India is generally below 1% and has never exceeded 3% in any year since 1895.”
“Hitherto the usual percentage of pneumonic cases in an epidemic has not been observed to be high… But the epidemic on the Gold Coast shows that that percentage is not an invariable standard of relationship between the one and the other, and that, under certain conditions, the bubonic may be displaced by the pneumonic form, which may, in its turn, occupy the whole field of the outbreak.”
3. The Infectivity of Pneumonic Plague
“…what impressed me… was not the number of the cases but their paucity. It seemed almost incredible that so many close contacts should escape infection; for example, two or three men who slept for several nights in the same hut as one dying from pneumonic plague.”
3.1. The Mechanism of Transmission and Factors Influencing Its Efficiency
“The idea that infection … is caused entirely by particles of sputum expectorated by the patient … is erroneous. It follows …that the wearing of masks and the proper covering of any surface of the skin where fresh abrasions are present are important… measures against plague infection”.
3.2. The Basic Reproductive Number (R0) and the Effective Reproductive Number (R or Rt)
3.3. Heterogenous Transmission and the 80:20 Rule
4. How PP Outbreaks Start
5. How PP Epidemics End
6. Future Risks
6.1. Anti-Microbial Resistance
6.2. Climate Change
6.3. Plague as a Bioweapon
6.4. Threats to First Responders and Health Workers
7. Conclusions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Evans, C. Pneumonic Plague: Incidence, Transmissibility and Future Risks. Hygiene 2022, 2, 14-27. https://doi.org/10.3390/hygiene2010002
Evans C. Pneumonic Plague: Incidence, Transmissibility and Future Risks. Hygiene. 2022; 2(1):14-27. https://doi.org/10.3390/hygiene2010002
Chicago/Turabian StyleEvans, Charles. 2022. "Pneumonic Plague: Incidence, Transmissibility and Future Risks" Hygiene 2, no. 1: 14-27. https://doi.org/10.3390/hygiene2010002