# Migration Forecasting—Significance and Approaches

^{1}

^{2}

^{3}

^{4}

^{*}

## Definition

**:**

## 1. Introduction

## 2. Approaches to Migration Modeling and Forecasting—A Brief Overview

## 3. Development of Cross-Border Migration in Germany after World War II

## 4. Exemplary Simulations of Migration and the Labor Market in Germany

- ${P}_{t-1,a-1,g}$ being the end-of-year population estimate of the previous year in age group $a-1$ (which is aged $a$ years at the end of the current year) of gender $g$;
- ${M}_{t,a,g}$ being the net migration during the current year aged $a$ years of gender $g$, computed as the difference of migration inflows ${I}_{t,a,g}$ and outflows ${O}_{t,a,g}$;
- ${D}_{t,a,g}$ being the deaths in said group;
- ${B}_{t,g}$ being the births of gender $g$ during the current year.

## 5. Conclusions and Outlook

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## Entry Link on the Encyclopedia Platform

## Appendix A

**Figure A1.**Age-specific gross migration between Germany and other countries in 2014. (Sources: [71]; own computation and design.)

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**Figure 1.**Gross and net migration of non-German migrants (in k), 1954–2018. (Sources: [54]; own design.) Note: Data for the period up until 1990 cover the old territory of the Federal Republic of Germany (including West Berlin); from 1991 onwards, they cover the whole country.

**Figure 4.**Emigration of the non-German population until 2060 (in k)—simulation results from 2019 onwards. (Sources: [57]; own computation and design.)

**Figure 5.**Immigration of the non-German population until 2060 (in k)—simulation results from 2019 onwards. (Sources: [57]; own computation and design.)

**Figure 6.**Migration balance of the non-German population until 2060 (in k)—simulation results from 2019 onwards. (Sources: [57]; own computation and design.)

**Figure 7.**Development of Germany’s population size (Germans and non-Germans) until 2060 (in k)—simulation results from 2019 onwards. (Sources: [55]; own computation and design.)

**Figure 8.**Development of the population aged 15–64 until 2060—simulation results from 2019 onwards. (Sources: [64]; own computation and design.)

**Figure 9.**Development of the old-age dependency ratio (as %) until 2060—simulation results from 2019 onwards. (Sources: [64]; own computation and design.)

**Figure 10.**Development of the total dependency ratio (as %) until 2060—simulation results from 2019 onwards. (Sources: [54]; own computation and design.)

Model 1 (Level Model) | Model 2 (Rates Model) | Model 3 (Target Model) | |
---|---|---|---|

Inflows | 900,000 | 900,000 | target value ^{(1)} |

Outflows | 600,000 | variable ^{(2)} | variable ^{(2)} |

Migration balance | 300,000 | variable ^{(2)} | target: 300,000 |

Emigration rate | variable ^{(2)} | constant ^{(3)} | constant ^{(3)} |

^{(1)}The number of inflows is set in such a way that a certain migration balance (in this case 300,000) is obtained.

^{(2)}The number of outflows and the emigration rates stem from the calculations.

^{(3)}Age- and gender-specific emigration rates from the year 2012; the rates are held constant over the entire simulation period.

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Fuchs, J.; Söhnlein, D.; Vanella, P.
Migration Forecasting—Significance and Approaches. *Encyclopedia* **2021**, *1*, 689-709.
https://doi.org/10.3390/encyclopedia1030054

**AMA Style**

Fuchs J, Söhnlein D, Vanella P.
Migration Forecasting—Significance and Approaches. *Encyclopedia*. 2021; 1(3):689-709.
https://doi.org/10.3390/encyclopedia1030054

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Fuchs, Johann, Doris Söhnlein, and Patrizio Vanella.
2021. "Migration Forecasting—Significance and Approaches" *Encyclopedia* 1, no. 3: 689-709.
https://doi.org/10.3390/encyclopedia1030054