Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Effects of Thawing Permafrost on Arctic Communities
1.2. National Security Implications of Permafrost Thaw
1.3. Evaluating Risk, Vulnerability, and Resilience
1.4. Composite Indices: A Community Snapshot
1.5. Integrative Indices: Local Trajectory Assessments
2. Methods
2.1. The Permafrost Vulnerability Index: A System Trajectory over Space
2.2. Vulnerability as a Function of Space
2.3. Formalized Conception of PVI
2.4. Community Observation Selection
- Critical Infrastructure;
- Human Health and Safety;
- Subsistence and Shoreline Use;
- Land Use/Geograpic Location;
- Percentage of Population Affected;
- Housing Distribution;
- Environmental Threat;
- Cultural Importance;
- Commercial Infrastructure
2.5. Selection of Geographic Features
2.6. PVI Co-Design
2.7. PVI Construction
- Create quantitative scores for the 186 communities under study based on the Denali commission and AWRVI results;
- From these scores and the community locations, create an estimative raster surface over the study area for the Denali commission and AWRVI results (one for each) using IDW, which reflects the interactions of their systems over space (2 total raster surfaces);
- Aggregate the two rasters to obtain a single estimative surface representing ;
- Generate quantitative scores for each geographic feature within the 22 infrastructure types;
- Using these scores, calculate the effects of the geographic features on the communities under study using IDW;
- Generate one estimative raster surface for the effects of each of the 22 infrastructure types, as found in the preceding step (22 total raster surfaces);
- Aggregate the rasters from step six by category, then sum the six category rasters to create a single estimative surface representing ;
- Multiply these rasters element-wise to obtain a single raster representing the estimated PVI over the state of Alaska, and extract the values at the locations of the communities to obtain the community PVIs.
2.7.1. Step 1: Scoring of Communities
2.7.2. Steps 2 and 3: Generating and Aggregating the Community Rasters
2.7.3. Step 4: Scoring the Geographic Features of Infrastructure Types
2.7.4. Steps 5, 6, and 7: Calculating the Effects of Infrastructure on Communities Using IDW, Generating Estimative Rasters, and Aggregation to a Single Raster
2.7.5. Step 8: Creating the PVI Raster and Extracting the PVI for Each Community
2.8. PVI for Military Facilities
3. Results
4. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
ACCI | Arctic Climate Change Index |
AWRVI | Arctic Water Resources Vulnerability Index |
HADR | Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response |
IDW | Inverse Distance Weighting |
PVI | Permafrost Vulnerability Index |
SAR | Search and Rescue |
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Physical Subindex | Social Subindex |
---|---|
Natural Supply | Knowledge Capacity |
Municipal Supply | Collective Community Capacity |
Water Quality | Institutional Capacity |
Permafrost | Cultural Capacity |
Subsistence Habitat | Mobility |
Categories | Types |
---|---|
Communications | Microwave Towers, Post Offices, Cell Phone Towers |
Transport | Airports, Ports and Harbors, Ferries, Roads |
Services | Fire Departments, Health Services, State Troopers, Emergency Operations Centers |
Water | Dams, Wastewater, Water Treatment Facilities, Water Distribution |
Energy | Bulk Fuel, Oil Facilities, the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, Power Lines |
Waste/Pollution | Contaminated Sites, Landfills |
Infrastructure | Weighting Criteria | Weights Assigned |
---|---|---|
Airports | None | Same weight for all locations |
Docks | None | Same weight for all locations |
Bulk Fuel Tanks | Capacity | The capacity of the tanks (min = 600, max = 1,786,590) |
Cell Towers | None | Same weight for all locations |
Contaminated Sites | Type (1–5) | 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 |
Dams | Normal Storage | Normal storage of the dam |
Power Transmission Lines | Voltage | Voltage (min = 7.2, max = 238) |
Emergency Operations Centers | None | Same weight for all locations |
Fire Departments | None | Same weight for all locations |
Medical Facilities | Number of different certifications (up to 5) | 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 |
Landfills | Type (1–4) | 1, 2, 3, or 4 |
Microwave Towers | None | Same weight for all locations |
Oil Refineries | None | Same weight for all locations |
Ports and Harbors | None | Same weight for all locations |
Post Offices | None | Same weight for all locations |
Roads | None | Same weight for all locations |
State Ferry | None | Same weight for all locations |
State Troopers | None | Same weight for all locations |
Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) | None | Same weight for all locations |
Wastewater Treatment | System Class (1–5) | 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 |
Fresh Water Treatment | System Class (1–5) | 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 |
Water Distribution System | System Class (1–4) | 1, 2, 3, or 4 |
Metric | Mean Difference between Calculated and Estimated Surface Values | Standard Deviation of the Difference between Calculated and Estimated Surface Values |
---|---|---|
Denali Scores | 0.00001 | 0.005 |
AWRVI Scores | <0.00001 | 0.001 |
Infrastructure Scores | 0.00123 | 0.0316 |
Significance Level | Number of Communities |
---|---|
= 0.05 | 14 |
= 0.10 | 26 |
= 0.20 | 39 |
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Share and Cite
Alessa, L.; Valentine, J.; Moon, S.; McComb, C.; Hicks, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Xiao, M.; Kliskey, A. Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security. Geographies 2023, 3, 522-542. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies3030027
Alessa L, Valentine J, Moon S, McComb C, Hicks S, Romanovsky V, Xiao M, Kliskey A. Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security. Geographies. 2023; 3(3):522-542. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies3030027
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlessa, Lilian, James Valentine, Sean Moon, Chris McComb, Sierra Hicks, Vladimir Romanovsky, Ming Xiao, and Andrew Kliskey. 2023. "Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security" Geographies 3, no. 3: 522-542. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies3030027