Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. The Study Area
2.2. The General Approach of the Study
2.3. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
2.4. ArcSWAT Model Input Data
2.5. Model Set-Up and Parameterization
2.6. Automatic Calibration and Validation of the SWAT Model
2.7. Partial Least Squares Regression Analysis
2.8. Simulation of Impacts of LU Change Scenarios on Hydrological Processes
3. Results
3.1. Sensitivity Analysis
3.2. Model Parameters, Calibration and Validation
3.3. The Impact of Land Cover Changes on the Hydrology of the KWK Watershed
3.4. The PLSR Model Explained Variations of Individual Land Cover Changes on Water Balance
3.5. Hydrological Impacts of Individual Land Cover Changes on the Selected Water Balance Components
4. Discussion
4.1. Sensitivity Analysis
4.2. Model Parameters, Calibration and Validation
4.3. The Impact of Land Cover Changes on the Hydrology of the KWK Watershed
4.4. The PLSR Model Explained Variations of Individual Land Cover Changes on Water Balance
4.5. Hydrological Impacts of Individual Land Cover Changes on the Selected Water Balance Components
5. Conclusions
Limitations of the Study
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Data Type | Description | Resolution | Source |
---|---|---|---|
Topography map | Digital elevation model | 30 × 30 m | ALASKA satellite facility |
Land use | Land use maps | 30 × 30 m | Classified image |
Soil map | Soil types | https://www.2w2e.com/home/GlobalSoil (accessed on 17 May 2020) | |
Weather data | Daily precipitation | 6 stations | Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) |
Weather data | Max and min air temp | 6 stations | Global weather data for SWAT |
Weather data | Relative humidity | 6 stations | Global weather data for SWAT |
Weather data | Solar radiation | 6 stations | Global weather data for SWAT |
Hydrometric | Daily streamflow | 4 stations | Pangani Basin Water Office (PBWO) |
Parameter | Description | SUFI2 Fitted Value | Default Range | The Final Value in SWAT Model |
---|---|---|---|---|
r_SURLAG.bsn | Surface runoff lag time (days) | 0.02 | 0.05–24 | 0.02 |
v_ESCO.bsn | Soil evaporation compensation factor | 0.65 | 0.01–1 | 0.65 |
v_GWQMN.gw | Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for return flow to occur (mm H2O) | 382.88 | 0–5000 | 382.88 |
v_GW_REVAP.gw | Groundwater “revap” coefficient | 0.27 | 0.02–0.2 | 0.05 |
r_REVAPMN.gw | Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for “revap” to occur (mm H2O) | 2.01 | 0–1000 | 750 |
v_ALPHA_BF.gw | Baseflow alpha factor (days) | 0.11 | 0–1 | 0.13 |
v_RCHRG_DP.gw | Deep aquifer percolation fraction | 0.22 | 0–1 | 0.63 |
v_GW_DELAY.gw | Groundwater delay (days) | 579.52 | 0–500 | 18.25 |
v_CH_N1.sub | Manning’s ‘n’ value for the tributary channels | 0.69 | 0.01–30 | 0.69 |
v_EPCO.hru | Plant uptake compensation factor | 0.83 | 0.01–1 | 0.83 |
a_OV_N.hru | Manning’s “n” value for overland flow | 0.10 | 0.01–30 | 0.10 |
a_CANMX.hru | Maximum canopy storage (mm H2O) | 0.077 | 0–100 | 10.78 |
a_SLSUBBSN.hru | Average slope length (m) | 75.11 | 10–150 | 75.11 |
a_HRU_SLP.hru | Average slope steepness (m/m) | −0.38 | 0.3–0.6 | 0.47 |
a_SOL_AW().sol | Available water capacity of the soil layer | −0.02 | 0–1 | 0.12 |
a_SOL_K().sol | Saturated soil hydraulic conductivity (mm/h) | 515.59 | 0–2000 | 515.59 |
a_CH_k2.rte | Effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium (mm/h) | 192.66 | 0–500 | 85.56 |
a_CN2.mgt | Initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II | 6.35 | 35–98 | 92.13 |
a_CH_W2.rte | Average width of main channel at top of bank (m) | −2.97 | 0–1000 | 54.21 |
v_CH_K2.rte | Effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium (mm/h) | 463.10 | −0.01–500 | 467.39 |
v_LAI_INIT.mgt | Initial leaf area index | 5.21 | 0–8 | 5.21 |
v_BIO_INIT.mgt | Initial dry weight biomass (kg/ha) | 661.20 | 0–1000 | 661.20 |
v_PHU_PLT.mgt | Total number of heat units or growing degree days needed to bring plant to maturity | 2228 | 0–3500 | 2228 |
Period | Average Monthly Flow (m3/s) | Evaluated Statistics | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Observed | Simulated | NSE | r-Factor | PBIAS | R2 | |
January 1987–December 1993 | 19.16 | 17.23 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 10.1 | 0.68 |
January 1994–December 2000 | 14.06 | 15.06 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 3.3 | 0.67 |
Selected Areal LC Classes (%) | Annual Basin Values (mm) | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU | BULT | AGRL | WATR | FORR | BARR | GRSL | WTL | SHRL | SurfQ | LatQ | GWQ | ET | WatQ |
1993 | 4.38 | 11.63 | 1.44 | 33.08 | 11.17 | 23.18 | 2.93 | 5.89 | 295.39 | 38.86 | 168.93 | 502.0 | 513.00 |
2006 | 6.47 | 17.68 | 1.54 | 31.01 | 9.23 | 19.97 | 2.28 | 5.03 | 275.69 | 38.97 | 176.28 | 492.0 | 514.17 |
2018 | 10.34 | 23.29 | 1.54 | 31.13 | 4.58 | 16.96 | 1.44 | 4.20 | 345.23 | 36.3 | 205.91 | 471.2 | 672.29 |
2030 | 14.93 | 30.54 | 2.00 | 30.54 | 1.46 | 9.24 | 1.06 | 4.44 | 292.94 | 38.67 | 174.33 | 498.6 | 516.06 |
Response Variable Y | Variation in Response | Q2 | Comp | Explained Variation in Y (%) | Cum Explained Variation in Y (%) | Root Mean PRESS | Q2 Cum |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hydrological components (ET, WatQ, SurfQ, GWQ, LatQ) | 0.951 | 0.901 | 1 | 94.1 | 94.1 | 0.272 | 0.9953 |
2 | 2.7 | 96.8 | 0.432 | 0.9926 | |||
3 | 1.8 | 98.6 | 0.561 | 0.9937 | |||
4 | 1.4 | 100 | 0.624 | 0.9481 |
Variables | BUILT | AGRL | WATR | FORR | BARR | GRASL | WETL | SHR | ET | SurfQ | WatQ | GWQ | LatQ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BUILT | 1.00 | ||||||||||||
AGRL | 0.98 | 1.00 | |||||||||||
WATR | 0.80 | 0.89 | 1.00 | ||||||||||
FORR | −0.74 | −0.85 | −0.99 | 1.00 | |||||||||
BARR | −0.99 | −0.97 | −0.76 | 0.69 | 1.00 | ||||||||
GRASL | −0.98 | −1.00 | −0.89 | 0.85 | 0.97 | 1.00 | |||||||
WETL | −0.99 | −0.99 | −0.85 | 0.80 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | ||||||
SHR | −0.98 | −0.99 | −0.89 | 0.85 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.00 | |||||
ET | 0.89 | 0.79 | 0.44 | −0.35 | −0.92 | −0.79 | −0.84 | −0.79 | 1.00 | ||||
SurQ | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.54 | −0.46 | −0.96 | −0.86 | −0.90 | −0.86 | 0.99 | 1.00 | |||
WtrQ | 0.94 | 0.85 | 0.54 | −0.45 | −0.96 | −0.86 | −0.89 | −0.86 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
GWQ | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.69 | −0.62 | −0.99 | −0.94 | −0.97 | −0.94 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.00 | |
LatQ | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.54 | −0.46 | −0.96 | −0.86 | −0.89 | −0.86 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.00 |
Variable | VIP | w*1 | w*2 | w*3 |
---|---|---|---|---|
BUILT | 1.28 | 0.316 | −0.878 | 0.444 |
AGRL | 1.57 | 0.445 | −0.597 | −0.449 |
WATR | 0.69 | −0.374 | −0.742 | −0.491 |
FORR | 0.89 | −0.465 | 0.371 | 0.913 |
BARR | 1.13 | −0.325 | −0.410 | −0.337 |
GRAL | 1.10 | −0.386 | 0.324 | 0.493 |
WETL | 0.65 | −0.206 | −0.236 | −0.3530 |
SHRL | 1.11 | −0.228 | −0.264 | −0.4818 |
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Said, M.; Hyandye, C.; Mjemah, I.C.; Komakech, H.C.; Munishi, L.K. Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Earth 2021, 2, 225-247. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth2020014
Said M, Hyandye C, Mjemah IC, Komakech HC, Munishi LK. Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Earth. 2021; 2(2):225-247. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth2020014
Chicago/Turabian StyleSaid, Mateso, Canute Hyandye, Ibrahimu Chikira Mjemah, Hans Charles Komakech, and Linus Kasian Munishi. 2021. "Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania" Earth 2, no. 2: 225-247. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth2020014