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Article

The Potential Health Benefits of Reduced PM2.5 Exposure Through a More Rapid Green Transition of South Korea’s Transport Sector

by
Dafydd Phillips
Underwood International College, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea
Pollutants 2025, 5(4), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/pollutants5040035
Submission received: 5 July 2025 / Revised: 14 August 2025 / Accepted: 30 September 2025 / Published: 8 October 2025
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Abstract

South Korea faces high levels of air pollution and is currently not on track to meet its transport sector 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets primarily due to infrastructural limitations. This study examines the potential health benefits of a more rapid green transition of South Korea’s transport sector from 2026 to 2050 in terms of avoided premature deaths and years of life lost due to reduced ambient PM2.5 exposure. The research conducts a scenario analysis comparing the business-as-usual trajectory of the transport sector with two alternative scenarios. In the first alternative scenario, South Korea’s transport sector achieves its 2030 NDC in 2035 and carbon neutrality in 2050 with a reliance on CCUS for emission capture. The second alternative scenario entails stronger climate action in which the transport sector meets the 2030 NDC target in 2030 and the 2050 carbon neutrality transport sector target through a complete green transition to electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles. The first alternative scenario results in an average of 80 avoided premature deaths (775 avoided years of life lost) and 53 MTCO2e avoided emissions per year from 2026 to 2050. The second more rapid green transition scenario of South Korea’s transport sector achieves an average of 96 avoided premature deaths (925 avoided years of life lost) and 66 MTCO2e avoided emissions per year. This research supports a more rapid green transition of South Korea’s transport sector for both health and climate gains.

1. Introduction

A complete green transition of the transport sector is a major challenge to achieving carbon neutrality and meeting the aims of the Paris Agreement [1]. Ceasing the use of fossil fuels in the transport sector is a complex challenge due to the decentralized structure of the sector, the shortage of electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, the cost and scale of updating existing infrastructure [2], and insufficient public willingness to switch to greener alternatives, such as EVs, due to their relatively higher costs and recharging time compared with gasoline and diesel vehicles [3]. The high energy requirements for aerial transport and the transport of heavier materials such as freight transport are a hurdle to moving away from fossil fuels for the transport sector as well [4]. Technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells and biofuels offer potential for decarbonization but are still facing issues regarding costs and scalability [5]. Most current hydrogen production is energy-intensive, and the production of clean hydrogen is also a major challenge for companies and economies [6].
South Korea’s greenhouse emissions (GHGs) per capita ranked 17th in the world in 2022 [7]. Per capita emissions are important to consider as many large emitter countries such as India have a relatively lower emissions per capita. Wealthier countries with higher emissions per capita have a higher responsibility and capacity to reduce their emissions. As shown in Figure 1, the transport sector contributed to 20.2% of South Korea’s final energy consumption in 2023. GHGs from passenger cars, trucks, and buses consists of 95% of the total emissions from the transport sector [8]. Light-duty vehicles account for the highest proportion of GHGs at about 45% of total emissions [9]. The total GHGs from the transport sector have risen steadily over the past decade [8].
Within South Korea’s transport sector the government has implemented various policies to support the increased adoption of electric and hydrogen vehicles such as subsidies programs [10]. Public institutions have been required to lease or purchase electric and hydrogen vehicles only and must have EV chargers for a minimum of 5% of the faculty total parking spaces [11]. South Korea has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality as outlined in the 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy of the Republic of Korea, which was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) as its long-term low-greenhouse gas emission development strategy [8]. However, the current transition rate to green transport puts South Korea on track not to achieve its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and 2050 carbon neutrality GHG emission reduction targets for the transport sector [12], primarily due to the insufficient scale of green vehicle adoption and government support. As shown in Figure 2, the majority of South Korea’s transport is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels for its energy needs.
Low air quality is also a major issue in South Korea [13]. The annual average PM2.5 exposure level in South Korea for 2021 was 18 μg/m3 [14]. South Korea’s average annual PM2.5 exposure is well above the air quality guidelines, as shown in Table 1. PM2.5 exposure is extremely harmful as it can be breathed deeply into the lungs and enter the bloodstream [15]. Exposure to PM2.5 increases the relative risk for ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) [16,17,18]. About 22,000 deaths were attributed to PM2.5 exposure in Korea in 2020 [14].
In 2024, South Korea formally became a ‘super-aged’ society as the share of people aged 65 or older surpassed 20% of its total population of 51.22 million [20]. Over 60% of the country’s population is forecasted to be aged 50 or older by 2050 [21]. PM2.5 exposure has a stronger detrimental impact on older individuals [22]. The adverse effects of air pollution will worsen over time for South Korea due to its rapidly aging population [23]. If PM2.5 levels remain at current levels it has been estimated that the total number premature deaths from PM2.5 exposure will rise to about 113,000 deaths in 2050 [14].
South Korea introduced its Comprehensive Action Plan on Fine Dust in 2017. Old diesel vehicles have been prohibited from driving in urban areas and the coverage of low-emission zones has been gradually extended [24]. Since December 2017 the South Korean government has been implementing emergency reduction measures which restrict the operation of vehicles, thermal power plants, and industrial sites during periods of particularly low air quality but there is concern regarding the long-term effectiveness of such approaches [25], as their approach is responsive rather than proactive. South Korea’s transport sector emitted around 24,000 thousand tonnes of PM2.5 emissions in 2021 [26]. Reducing fossil fuel use in its transport sector provides the potential to simultaneously improve air quality as well as contribute to meeting South Korea’s GHG emission reduction targets.
This study carries out a scenario analysis to estimate the gains for human health and global environmental stability of a more rapid green transition of South Korea’s transport sector relative to its current trajectory. Health benefits are calculated by avoided premature deaths and years of life lost from ischemic heart disease, stroke, COPD, lung cancer, and ALRIs due to reduced PM2.5 exposure from transport sector emissions. This research seeks to contribute to deepening the understanding of the benefits of increased climate action in South Korea’s transport sector through quantitative approaches for improving environmental policy. Key novelties of this research include the application of PM2.5 integrated concentration exposure–response functions from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Burden of Diseases [17] study to focus on the impacts of emission changes in South Korea’s transport sector and the utilization of the most recent disease rates and population forecasts for South Korea to estimate potential health impacts.
This research finds that accelerating the green transition of South Korea’s transport sector entails major health benefits. Compared with a business-as-usual trajectory of the transport sector, a 2050 carbon neutrality-compatible pathway which utilizes carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to offset remaining transport sector emissions would result in an average of 80 avoided premature deaths (775 avoided years of life lost) and 53 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) avoided emissions per year from 2026 to 2050. A more rapid green transition of South Korea’s transport sector which meets its 2030 NDC target and achieves a complete green transition of the transport sector in 2050 would result in an average of 96 avoided premature deaths (925 avoided years of life lost) and 66 MTCO2e avoided emissions per year.

2. Materials and Methods

This research utilizes the modeling framework of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP)—Integrated Benefits Calculator (IBC) to estimate the health impacts of a green transition of South Korea’s transport sector. LEAP-IBC estimates ambient PM2.5 exposure and its subsequent effects on health in terms of premature deaths and years of life lost [27]. This modeling framework was selected due to its robustness and ability to integrate both climate and health benefits into its scenario analysis. The main parameters of the modeling framework are the integrated exposure response which quantifies the relative risk for mortality from specific diseases from PM2.5 exposure [17], population by age bracket projections [21], and the transport sector vehicle types [28]. Premature death is defined as death before the average life expectancy for the age cohort which is attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Years of life lost is the number of years that the premature death occurred before the average life expectancy for the age cohort. South Korea’s emissions of PM2.5 and GHGs are calculated in the country model according to sectoral activity in each scenario. For the analysis of South Korea’s transport sector emissions, the associated GHG and PM2.5 emissions by vehicle type is utilized for the calculation of each scenario’s total emission levels and premature deaths [17]. Non-domestic emissions impacting South Korea’s ambient PM2.5 are utilized from the IIASA GAINS ECLIPSE scenario [29]. The scenario uses the Greenhouse Gas—Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model to create realistic mitigation pathways for pollutant level projections based on current policy trajectories and technological feasibility. The IIASA GAINS ECLIPSE scenario was selected due to realistic modeling assumptions and robust modeling framework, and in order to allow this study to focus on domestic emissions. Total PM2.5 exposure in South Korea is converted into population-weighted concentrations based on the GEOS-Chem adjoint model [30,31]. LEAP has been applied in studies for a diverse range of countries, including the Philippines [32], Bangladesh [31], and Nepal [33]. The LEAP modeling framework has been previously applied to South Korea’s building sector [34] to assess the implications of CO2 capture technologies in South Korea [35] and to examine energy security and GHG emission pathways in South Korea [36]. LEAP-IBC has been utilized to assess the health benefits and climate benefits of replacing coal with natural gas and nuclear power in South Korea’s electricity generation sector [37], but has not been previously utilized to examine the health effects of a green transition in South Korea’s transport sector.
Integrated concentration exposure–response functions for PM2.5 levels calculate the impact on mortality rates for ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) [33]. PM2.5 causes other health impacts but this study focuses on these five diseases as their exposure response impacts have the most available data. Premature deaths and years of life lost due to PM2.5 exposure were estimated in 5-year brackets for the population aged 30 years and older, except for deaths due to ALRIs which were estimated for those aged less than 5 years old. Both the death rates for each disease and life expectancy for each 5-year age bracket are from the year 2023 and were accessed from the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) [38]. The share of the population by gender from each 5-year age group is taken from the 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects, medium fertility variant [21], with demographic and mortality projections adjusted for the entire scenario period according to population projections by year.
The integrated exposure–response functions (IERs) have the following mathematical form:
IER (β, z) = 1 + α × (1 − e −β (z − zcf)γ+)
where z is the level of PM2.5 and zcf is the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (assigned a uniform distribution between 2.4 and 5.9 µg m−3 of PM2.5) below which no additional risk is assumed, with
(z − zcf)+ = (z − zcf)
if z is greater than zcf; zero otherwise. Here, 1 + α is the maximum risk, β is the ratio of the IER at low to high concentrations, and γ is the level of PM2.5 concentration.
Disease rates by gender and five-year age bracket for ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, COPD, and ALRIs from 2023, with change in mortality, were calculated as follows:
Δ Mort = y 0   ( R R I E R − 1 R R I E R ) Pop
where y 0 is the baseline mortality rate for each disease category, and Pop is the exposed population for each age category. R R I E R is the integrated exposure response function (IER) relative risk (RR).
For the “business-as-usual” scenario the key focus of the scenario design is to follow South Korea’s current trajectory in its transport sector. The rationale behind comparing the alternative scenarios to a current trajectory scenario is to show the relative gains of scenarios which entail greater reductions in GHGs and PM2.5 emissions. Electric and hybrid vehicle deployment is gradually rising in South Korea but not at the pace required to meet its 2030 NDC or 2050 carbon neutrality targets. In the “business-as-usual” scenario, the total GHGs of the other sectors (energy, industry, buildings, agriculture, waste) do not meet South Korea’s ambitious 2030 NDC targets but do gradually decrease to meet the government 2050 carbon neutrality scenario B. The scenario was designed this way in order to focus on transport sector emission changes’ impacts. As GHGs and PM2.5 emissions are primarily from the same sources, PM2.5 emissions also decline with less GHGs. As can be seen from Table 2, scenario B is less ambitious than scenario A and is reliant on CCUS to offset emissions and thus is the more feasible of the two carbon-neutral scenarios for South Korea to meet. The energy mix from 2025 to 2038 is taken from South Korea’s 11th Basic Plan for Supply and Demand of Power [39]. From 2039 to 2050, the energy sector in the model follows a gradual decarbonization of the other sectors consistent with meeting the 2050 carbon neutrality scenario B. The scenario is designed this way to most closely match stated government policies.
To develop the 2050 carbon neutrality scenarios the 2050 Low-Carbon Vision Forum was established and contributed to by academia, industry, and civil society representatives from the initial stage with 69 experts from seven sub-committees each recommended by their respective professional fields. The Forum’s Technical Working Group comprised 34 representatives from 22 national research institutes and thinktanks, including the Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center, Korea Energy Economics Institute, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, and Korea Transport Institute, who prepared the net-zero scenarios based on their expert assumptions.
This study compares the business-as-usual trajectory in the transport sector scenario with two alternative scenarios which involve higher reductions in GHG and PM2.5 emissions. The first alternative scenario is designed to be relatively easier to achieve, and thus more feasible, entailing South Korea meeting its 2030 NDC targets for the transport sector in 2035 and achieving a transport sector GHG emission reduction in 2050 according to the government’s 2050 carbon neutrality scenario B, which is reliant on CCUS for emission capture. South Korea’s 2030 NDC targets for vehicles by type can be seen in Figure 3.
The second alternative scenario is more ambitious than the first, and involves South Korea meeting its 2030 NDC target for the transport sector as planned in 2030 and achieving a complete green transition of the transport sector to electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles in 2050 in accordance with the government’s 2050 carbon neutrality scenario A. The scenario would require a swift transformation of South Korea’s transport sector to meet the 2030 NDC in 2030 which would entail costs and potential feasibility issues; however, the scenario was still selected to assess the relative health gains of such a rapid green transition. Table 3 provides a summary of the “business-as-usual” scenario, and the first alternative scenarios (“2035NDC_2050 CCUS”) and the second alternative scenario (“2030NDC_2050Green”).

3. Results

The health benefits of a more rapid green transition of the transport sector in terms of avoided premature deaths and avoided years of life lost increase over time, as can be seen in Figure 4 and Figure 5. This is due to two primary reasons. First, both alternative scenarios entail a relative reduction in air pollutant emissions as electric and hydrogen vehicles are further utilized relative to the business-as-usual scenario, thus the avoided premature deaths and avoided years of life lost increase over time in both alternative scenarios. Second, as South Korea’s population is aging rapidly and older individuals are more adversely affected by PM2.5 exposure, the total number of PM2.5 exposure deaths rises significantly in the business-as-usual scenario. Therefore, the relative reduction in PM2.5 emissions and consequential improvement in air quality of lower PM2.5 exposure levels in both alternative scenarios result in increasingly larger health benefits over time.
Comparing the “2035NDC_2050CCUS” scenario and “2030NDC_2050Green” scenario, the relative gains of the “2030NDC_2050Green” scenario are higher, particularly during the 2026–2035 period. This is because the “2035NDC_2050CCUS” scenario does not meet South Korea’s 2030 NDC target for the transport sector until 2035; therefore the PM2.5 air pollutant emissions from the transport sector do not undergo the same rapid decrease as the “2035NDC_2050CCUS” scenario. To meet South Korea’s 2030 NDC transport sector emissions in the year 2030, the country would have to double the speed of electric and hydrogen vehicle adoption relative to meeting the 2030 NDC in 2035, yet the relative health benefits in the “2030NDC_2050Green” scenario are more than double the “2035NDC_2050CCUS” scenario. The reason for this is the relative risk curve of the integrated exposure–response functions are slightly flatter at higher levels of PM2.5 exposure, thus further increased reductions in PM2.5 exposure levels result in proportionally higher benefits per emission reduction.
Table 4 shows the climate gains of the two alternative scenarios relative to the business-as-usual trajectory scenario. Both scenarios result in reduced GHGs but the second alternative scenario (“2030NDC_2050Green”) entails larger climate benefits as it meets South Korea’s 2030 NDC transport sector target on schedule in 2030 and achieves a complete green transition into electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles by 2050. Table 5 provides a summary of the benefits of each scenario compared to the business-as-usual trajectory scenario.

4. Discussion

This study finds there are significant health benefits of a more rapid green transition of South Korea’s transport sector relative to its current trajectory. The swifter the decarbonization of South Korea’s transport is, the larger the gains in terms of avoided premature deaths and avoided years of life lost. This has important policy implications for policy makers and stakeholders in policy formation for South Korea’s transport sector as quantitative estimations of benefits provides a balance against a sole focus on costs, which can inhibit a green transition. Nevertheless, various major barriers remain to decreasing both GHGs and air pollutant emissions from South Korea’s transport sector. EV purchase prices are a major barrier to EV adoption as gasoline vehicles still entail lower upfront costs but increased subsidies for EV purchases, which is an immediately actionable policy, can address this [12]. EV charging infrastructure is also an important factor for consumers in South Korea considering purchasing EVs as consumers still prefer the convenience of established gasoline and diesel vehicle refueling networks [40] and also face range anxiety [41]. These actions require longer-term infrastructure planning by policy makers. Government support for EV charging infrastructure is vital for EV adoption in South Korea as many reside in apartment complexes with shared parking faculties thus are unable to install home chargers [10]. For vehicle types requiring a higher energy intensity, hydrogen vehicle adoption encounters high costs and technical difficulties in processing green hydrogen [42]. Similarly to EVs, infrastructure and subsidies have been found to be key factors in increasing hydrogen vehicle adoption [43]. Proximity to public transport and facilities can reduce the overall reliance on vehicles [44], and effective urban planning for compact development can be a means of reducing per capita road transport emissions [45]. Although these policies for infrastructure scale-up entail significant investment and near-term economic costs compared with the anticipated long-term benefits, they are worth implementing from a long-term society perspective. Green industry growth should be supported by government so that labor market disruption can be minimized and green economic growth opportunities can be attained. Retraining programs for those adversely affected by the transport sector’s green transition must be actively implemented based on international best practices.
The findings of this paper have significant policy implications. A swifter green transition would enable South Korea to avoid a large number of premature deaths and years of life lost due to PM2.5 exposure; therefore the government should take stronger action to achieve these benefits. In the context of South Korea, safety concerns regarding electric and hydrogen vehicles are a significant barrier to the decarbonization of South Korea’s transport sector [46]. In August 2024, an electric vehicle battery fire in an underground parking lot damaged 140 cars and hospitalized 23 people [47]. Since the incident, South Korea has faced a widespread public fear of EVs, with some apartment complexes even banning EVs from entering their underground parking lots [48]. In December 2024, the explosion of a hydrogen-powered bus has sparked a backlash against transiting public bus fleets to hydrogen energy source models [49]. It is essential to address safety concerns regarding low-carbon transport with a transparent and evidence-based approach. Education and engagement with stakeholders and the general public is essential to promote the green transition and counter the perception that there is a safety tradeoff of deploying low-carbon vehicles. Best practices internationally to mitigate safety concerns related to EVs/hydrogen vehicles as well as distributional concerns include increased safety measures and public educational campaigns [50,51].
Over the long term the challenge of maintaining stable supply chains of raw materials for green vehicles may be a barrier to a complete green transition of South Korea’s transport sector [52]. Electric vehicles, batteries, and other clean technologies require rare earth metals and other materials that are often in limited supply [53]. Technology innovation for the recycling of batteries and battery materials are potential means of addressing these issues [54,55]. For example, centralizing responsibility for more policy consistency and effective oversight, as well as expanding subsidies for recycling centers, can successfully increase battery recycling rates [56,57]. Shifting to alternative green fuels for transport also requires transforming global systems of production, distribution, and consumption to ensure long stability and limit supply chain disruptions. Ensuring that hydrogen is produced through low-carbon means is essential, yet this is still a major challenge [6]. South Korea’s Green Stimulus policies and Green New Deal have the potential to address these issues while simultaneously revitalizing its national economy [58]. By further aligning its policies and strategies with global efforts to mitigate climate change through the promotion of low carbon solutions, South Korea can achieve enhanced sustainable long-term economic growth [59].
An important limitation of this study is that it only estimates the impacts of PM2.5 exposure in terms of ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, COPD, and ALRIs avoided premature deaths. PM2.5 and air pollution have been found to have a diverse range of other adverse impacts to quality of life such as mental stress [60], impacting the physical development of children [61], lowering property prices [62], inhibiting outdoor exercise [63], negatively impacting labor market supply [64], and associations with other types of cancer [65] which are not covered by this study. Additionally, as this study only focuses on PM2.5 it is likely to underestimate the health benefits of transport sector decarbonization as other air pollutants such NO2, SO2, and NH3 are not included [66]. This paper focuses on PM2.5 pollutants and the exposure response functions of associated premature deaths and years of life of lost from ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) for PM2.5, which are extremely robust and the applied LEAP framework focuses on PM2.5 exposure and its impacts. Future studies would benefit from including other harmful air pollutants such as air pollutants like NO2, SO2, and NH3 and a detailed examination of the sustainable transition of other air polluting sectors such as the agricultural sector [67]. Another important limitation is that the study’s coverage is limited to only domestic emission sources. The reason the paper focuses on local PM2.5 is that PM2.5 from abroad is beyond the capacity of South Korea’s government to directly impact. Air quality in South Korea is impacted by neighboring countries’ emissions, such as emissions from China [68,69]. It has been estimated that about 20–60% of ambient PM2.5 in South Korea is attributable to China [70,71]. Therefore, for a fuller picture of impacts future studies could expand to create a regional model including a greater variety of air pollutants and a detailed examination of other sectors.

5. Conclusions

This research finds that accelerating the green transition of South Korea’s transport sector can yield substantial benefits in terms of both public health and climate mitigation, which carries major relevant policy implications for climate targets in South Korea. By comparing business-as-usual projections with two alternative scenarios, the analysis highlights the significant gains achievable through timely and ambitious policy action. The study supports accelerating investment in low-carbon transport infrastructure, including electric vehicle subsidies, charging networks, and hydrogen fuel systems to achieve health gains. A successful green transition will therefore require an integrated policy framework combining economic incentives, public engagement, safety regulation, and innovation in clean technology and battery recycling systems. Accelerating this transition not only enhances the country’s capacity to meet its climate goals but also delivers meaningful and measurable improvements to public health, particularly in the context of South Korea’s rapidly aging population. As South Korea continues to refine its carbon neutrality strategy, the integration of health co-benefits into transport and environmental policymaking should be prioritized to maximize societal gains, achieve green economic growth opportunities, and ensure a sustainable future.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Data Availability Statement

All data utilized in this research is publicly available from the sources cited in the article.

Conflicts of Interest

The author declares no conflicts of interest.

Abbreviations

NDCsNationally Determined Contributions
CCUSCarbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage
EVsElectric Vehicles
UNFCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
GHGsGreenhouse Gases
MTCO2eMillion Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
PM2.5Particulate Matter that has a diameter of 2.5 μm or less
COPDChronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
ALRIsAcute Lower Respiratory Infections
NO2Nitrogen Dioxide
SO2Sulfur Dioxide
NH3Ammonia

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Figure 1. Total final consumption, South Korea, 2023 [7].
Figure 1. Total final consumption, South Korea, 2023 [7].
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Figure 2. Fuel consumption trend by transportation sector [8].
Figure 2. Fuel consumption trend by transportation sector [8].
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Figure 3. South Korea 2030 NDC target for transport sector vehicles by type [7].
Figure 3. South Korea 2030 NDC target for transport sector vehicles by type [7].
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Figure 4. Avoided premature deaths in alternative scenario compared to business-as-usual trajectory scenario.
Figure 4. Avoided premature deaths in alternative scenario compared to business-as-usual trajectory scenario.
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Figure 5. Avoided years of life lost in alternative scenario compared to business-as-usual trajectory scenario.
Figure 5. Avoided years of life lost in alternative scenario compared to business-as-usual trajectory scenario.
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Table 1. World Health Organization air quality guideline values for PM2.5 and PM10 [19].
Table 1. World Health Organization air quality guideline values for PM2.5 and PM10 [19].
PollutantAveraging TimeAir Quality Guideline
PM2.5 µg m−3Annual5
PM2.5 µg m−324 h15
PM10 µg m−3Annual15
PM10 µg m−324 h45
Table 2. South Korean government 2050 carbon neutrality scenarios [28].
Table 2. South Korean government 2050 carbon neutrality scenarios [28].
CategorySector20182050 Scenario A2050 Scenario BNote
EmissionsEnergy269.6020.7Scenario A: Complete green transition of power generation.
Scenario B: Some power generated using liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Industry260.551.151.1
Buildings52.16.26.2
Transport98.12.89.2Scenario A: Complete transition to electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles.
Scenario B: Some alternative fuels such as e-fuels and biofuels utilized.
Agriculture24.715.415.4
Waste17.14.44.4
Hydrogen-09
Omissions5.60.513
Absorption and RemovalCarbon Sinks−41.3−25.3−25.3
Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage (CCUS)-−55.1−84.6
Direct Air Capture (DAC)--−7.4
Total net emissions686.300
Table 3. Outline of scenarios.
Table 3. Outline of scenarios.
Scenario NameDescription
Business-as-usualTransport sector emissions follow the current trajectory of slow rate of electric and hydrogen vehicle adoption. For other sectors, targets of 2050 carbon neutrality scenario B are met.
2035NDC_2050 CCUSTransport sector emissions are reduced to meet 2030 NDC target in 2035. The 2050 transport emissions are according to 2050 carbon neutrality scenario B which relies on CCUS to offset remaining transport sector emissions.
2030NDC_2050 GreenTransport sector emissions are rapidly reduced through replacement of gasoline and diesel vehicles with electric and hydrogen vehicles to meet 2030 NDC in 2030. The 2050 carbon neutrality of the transport sector is achieved through complete green transition into electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles, meeting the South Korean government’s 2050 carbon neutrality scenario A for the transport sector emission reduction target.
Table 4. Summary of average and total avoided MTCO2e GHGs in South Korea’s transport sector compared to the business-as-usual trajectory scenario.
Table 4. Summary of average and total avoided MTCO2e GHGs in South Korea’s transport sector compared to the business-as-usual trajectory scenario.
2026–2030 Average2026–2035
Average		2036–2050
Average		Total Avoided Emissions
2035NDC_2050CCUS scenario4.54.63.51335.9
2030NDC_2050Green scenario8.95.92.91644.0
Table 5. Summary table of the benefits of each scenario compared to the business-as-usual trajectory scenario.
Table 5. Summary table of the benefits of each scenario compared to the business-as-usual trajectory scenario.
Total Avoided Premature DeathsTotal Avoided Years of Life LostTotal Avoided GHGs
2035NDC_2050CCUS scenario200819,3771335.9
2030NDC_2050Green scenario240323,1391644.0
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Phillips, D. The Potential Health Benefits of Reduced PM2.5 Exposure Through a More Rapid Green Transition of South Korea’s Transport Sector. Pollutants 2025, 5, 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/pollutants5040035

AMA Style

Phillips D. The Potential Health Benefits of Reduced PM2.5 Exposure Through a More Rapid Green Transition of South Korea’s Transport Sector. Pollutants. 2025; 5(4):35. https://doi.org/10.3390/pollutants5040035

Chicago/Turabian Style

Phillips, Dafydd. 2025. "The Potential Health Benefits of Reduced PM2.5 Exposure Through a More Rapid Green Transition of South Korea’s Transport Sector" Pollutants 5, no. 4: 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/pollutants5040035

APA Style

Phillips, D. (2025). The Potential Health Benefits of Reduced PM2.5 Exposure Through a More Rapid Green Transition of South Korea’s Transport Sector. Pollutants, 5(4), 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/pollutants5040035

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