Incident Analysis and Prediction of Safety Performance on Construction Sites
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Measuring Safety Performance in Construction
2.1. Lagging Indicators
2.2. Leading Indicators
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Framework for Monitoring and Measuring Safety Performance
3.1.1. Step 1: Identification of Safety Indicators
3.1.2. Step 2: Collection of Safety Indicators Data
3.1.3. Step 3: Analysis of Safety Indicators Data
3.1.4. Step 4: Application of Corrective Measures
3.2. Analysis of Safety Indicators Data
3.2.1. Binary Logit Model for Predicting Leading Indicators
3.2.2. Poisson Regression Model for Predicting Lagging Indicators
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Analysis of Safety Indicators Data
4.2. Results of Binary Logit Model
4.3. Results of Poisson Regression Model
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Category | Description | Frequency | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|
Lagging Indicators (dependent variables) | |||
Property Damage Cases | An incident that results in the destruction of real or personal property. | 54 | 55.67% |
First Aid Cases | Any incident that requires stopping work but does not require a trained medical professional for assistance | 41 | 42.27% |
Medical Aid Cases | An injury or illness that results in death, days away from work, restricted work, medical treatment beyond first aid, or loss of consciousness | 2 | 2.06% |
Leading Indicators (dependent and independent variables) | |||
Safe Work Observation | Counts of the number of safe actions or conditions in a work area for a given time | 223 | 8.74% |
Safety Intervention | An attempt to change how things are performed in order to improve safety | 285 | 11.17% |
Unsafe Act | Unaccepted practices that have the potential to contribute to future accidents and injuries | 895 | 35.08% |
Unsafe Condition | A situation in which the physical layout of the workplace or work location or the status of tools, equipment, and material violates contemporary safety standards | 1069 | 41.91% |
Near Miss | An unplanned event or unsafe condition that has the potential for injury or illness to people, or damage to property, or the environment | 79 | 3.10% |
Causal Factors (Independent variables) | |||
Heavy Equipment | Incidents associated with heavy construction equipment, such as a truck, trailer, and excavator | 267 | 10.47% |
Vertical Access Equipment | Incidents associated with vertical access equipment, such as ladders, scaffolds, and stairs | 187 | 7.33% |
Site Conditions | Incidents associated with site conditions, such as snow and ice, hole and trench, and roadway | 625 | 24.50% |
Non-use of PPE | Incidents associated with failure to use PPE, such as earplugs, hardhats, and safety glasses | 733 | 28.73% |
Incident Type | Incident type, such as trip, slip, fall, and electrical | 295 | 11.56% |
Construction Materials | Incidents associated with certain construction materials, such as steel/rebar, concrete, nail, and fuel | 267 | 10.47% |
Days of the Week | Days of the week on which incidents occur | ||
Months of the Year | Months of the year in which incidents occur |
Variables Description | Mean (Std. Dev.) | Unsafe Act | Unsafe Condition | Near Miss | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Parameter Estimate | t-Statistic | Average Elasticity | Parameter Estimate | t-Statistic | Average Elasticity | Parameter Estimate | t-Statistic | Average Elasticity | ||
Constant | −0.709 *** | −10.150 | −1.185 *** | −17.470 | −4.160 *** | −18.090 | ||||
Midweek Indicator | 0.213 (0.409) | 0.528 *** | 1.990 | 0.017 | ||||||
First Month of Spring Indicator | 0.105 (0.307) | −1.232 *** | −6.560 | −0.198 | −0.652 *** | −3.930 | −0.120 | 0.853 *** | 2.860 | 0.031 |
Last Month of Spring Indicator | 0.083 (0.277) | 0.577 *** | 3.630 | 0.110 | ||||||
First Month of Summer Indicator | 0.118 (0.323) | 0.669 *** | 4.860 | 0.128 | ||||||
Last Month of Fall Indicator | 0.297 (0.457) | 1.095 *** | 10.950 | 0.229 | −1.146 *** | −3.000 | −0.025 | |||
Incident Related to the Use of Ladder | 0.030 (0.170) | 0.861 *** | 3.420 | 0.166 | ||||||
Incident Related to the Use of Scaffold | 0.023 (0.150) | −0.667 * | −1.820 | −0.113 | 0.911 *** | 2.850 | 0.184 | 1.191 * | 1.830 | 0.053 |
Incident Involving Stairs | 0.020 (0.141) | −1.089 * | −1.880 | −0.172 | 0.998 ** | 2.500 | 0.201 | |||
Roadway Incident | 0.044 (0.205) | 0.856 *** | 4.040 | 0.172 | ||||||
Incident Involving Truck | 0.073 (0.259) | 0.523 *** | 3.080 | 0.099 | ||||||
Incident Involving Trailer | 0.032 (0.176) | −0.706 ** | −2.010 | −0.119 | 1.068 *** | 3.680 | 0.215 | |||
Incident Related to the Use of PPE | 0.287 (0.452) | 1.086 *** | 6.690 | 0.215 | 0.757 *** | 3.060 | 0.023 | |||
Incident Related to Hearing and Use of Earplugs | 0.111 (0.314) | 0.559 *** | 2.990 | 0.109 | ||||||
Incident Related to the Use of Hardhat | 0.080 (0.271) | −0.516 ** | −2.550 | −0.089 | ||||||
Incident Related to Eye and Use of Glasses | 0.044 (0.206) | 0.454 * | 1.860 | 0.087 | ||||||
Incident Related to Snow and Ice | 0.177 (0.382) | −1.015 *** | −6.920 | −0.172 | 1.156 *** | 9.580 | 0.239 | −1.435 *** | −2.980 | −0.027 |
Trip Incident | 0.054 (0.227) | −1.737 *** | −5.390 | −0.248 | 1.453 *** | 6.460 | 0.293 | 1.146 *** | 2.940 | 0.049 |
Slip Incident | 0.028 (0.165) | −2.789 *** | −4.500 | −0.312 | 1.492 *** | 4.460 | 0.297 | 1.332 *** | 2.910 | 0.063 |
Fall Incident | 0.046 (0.209) | −0.747 *** | −2.840 | −0.125 | 0.403 * | 1.870 | 0.080 | 1.762 *** | 5.330 | 0.095 |
Incident Related to Hole and Trench | 0.024 (0.154) | −0.686 ** | −2.170 | −0.116 | 0.828 *** | 2.970 | 0.167 | 1.097 * | 1.950 | 0.047 |
Electrical Incident | 0.046 (0.209) | 0.691 *** | 3.390 | 0.138 | ||||||
Incident Related to the Use of Fuel | 0.042 (0.201) | 1.252 *** | 2.990 | 0.056 | ||||||
Incident Involving Nails | 0.040 (0.196) | −1.628 *** | −4.290 | −0.235 | 2.362 *** | 7.970 | 0.437 | |||
Incident Related to Steel and Rebar | 0.033 (0.180) | 1.008 ** | 2.110 | 0.042 | ||||||
Number of Observations | 2551 | 2551 | 2551 | |||||||
Log-likelihood at Zero | −1652.963 | −1734.639 | −352.273 | |||||||
Log-likelihood at Convergence | −1380.781 | −1451.982 | −301.606 |
Variable Description | Mean (Std. Dev) | Safe Work Observation | Safety Intervention | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Parameter Estimate | t-Statistic | Average Elasticity | Parameter Estimate | t-Statistic | Average Elasticity | ||
Constant | −1.869 *** | −17.360 | −2.100 *** | −22.280 | |||
First Month of Spring Indicator | 0.105 (0.307) | 1.282 *** | 7.520 | 0.128 | 1.044 *** | 6.490 | 0.130 |
First Month of Summer Indicator | 0.118 (0.323) | −0.615 ** | −2.290 | −0.038 | |||
Last Month of Fall Indicator | 0.297 (0.457) | −1.983 *** | −6.450 | −0.095 | −0.853 *** | −4.550 | −0.069 |
Incident related to the use of Ladder | 0.030 (0.170) | −2.186 ** | −2.150 | −0.078 | |||
Incident related to the use of PPE | 0.287 (0.452) | −0.852 *** | −4.610 | −0.054 | 0.357 *** | 2.610 | 0.036 |
Incident related to Snow and Ice | 0.177 (0.382) | −0.450 ** | −2.090 | −0.029 | |||
Trip Incident | 0.054 (0.227) | −1.070 ** | −2.300 | −0.071 | |||
Slip Incident | 0.028 (0.165) | −2.425 ** | −2.380 | −0.103 | |||
Electrical Incident | 0.046 (0.209) | −1.077 ** | −2.280 | −0.056 | |||
Number of Observations | 2551 | 2551 | |||||
Log-likelihood at Zero | −756.422 | −893.101 | |||||
Log-likelihood at Convergence | −657.333 | −837.514 |
Variable Description | Estimated Parameter | z-Statistic | Partial Effect | Mean (Std. Dev) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Constant | −1.912 *** | −8.540 | ||
Midweek Indicator | 0.789 ** | 2.110 | 0.141 | 0.000 (0.000) |
Fourth Day of Workweek Indicator | 0.569 | 1.370 | 0.097 | 0.000 (0.000) |
Last Month of Autumn Indicator | −1.413 | −1.390 | −0.112 *** | 0.283 (0.452) |
Safe Work Observations Indicator | −0.448 * | −1.710 | −0.062 * | 0.657 (1.521) |
Near Misses Indicator | −0.486 | −1.260 | −0.067 | 0.259 (0.082) |
Number of Observations | 297 | |||
Log-likelihood (at Zero) | −124.960 | |||
Log-likelihood at Convergence | −116.858 | |||
Chi-Squared | 16.202 |
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Awolusi, I.; Marks, E.; Hainen, A.; Alzarrad, A. Incident Analysis and Prediction of Safety Performance on Construction Sites. CivilEng 2022, 3, 669-686. https://doi.org/10.3390/civileng3030039
Awolusi I, Marks E, Hainen A, Alzarrad A. Incident Analysis and Prediction of Safety Performance on Construction Sites. CivilEng. 2022; 3(3):669-686. https://doi.org/10.3390/civileng3030039
Chicago/Turabian StyleAwolusi, Ibukun, Eric Marks, Alexander Hainen, and Ammar Alzarrad. 2022. "Incident Analysis and Prediction of Safety Performance on Construction Sites" CivilEng 3, no. 3: 669-686. https://doi.org/10.3390/civileng3030039
APA StyleAwolusi, I., Marks, E., Hainen, A., & Alzarrad, A. (2022). Incident Analysis and Prediction of Safety Performance on Construction Sites. CivilEng, 3(3), 669-686. https://doi.org/10.3390/civileng3030039