A Review of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources, Crop Production and Adaptation Strategies in South Africa

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to water resources and agricultural sustainability, particularly in semi-arid and socio-economically vulnerable regions such as South Africa. This review synthesizes empirical, modelling, and policy-based evidence on the impacts of climate change on water availability, crop production, and adaptation strategies in the country, drawing on approximately 162 peer-reviewed studies and institutional reports published between 2010 and 2025. The findings indicate that rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and an increasing frequency of extreme events, such as droughts and floods, are intensifying water stress and disrupting agricultural systems. Hydrological models consistently project declines in runoff, soil moisture, and streamflow, while crop simulation models predict reductions in the yields of major staple crops, including maize, wheat, and sorghum, particularly under high-emission scenarios. Although localized improvements in water availability and crop productivity may occur, these tend to be limited and highly context-specific. In response, South Africa has implemented a range of adaptation strategies, including climate-smart agriculture, water-efficient irrigation, ecosystem-based approaches, and policy-driven interventions. However, their effectiveness remains constrained by institutional fragmentation, limited financial capacity, and persistent socio-economic inequalities, particularly among smallholder farmers. The review underscores the need for integrated, inclusive, and context-specific adaptation strategies that strengthen governance, enhance the science–policy interface, and improve access to climate finance. The insights provided offer valuable guidance for advancing climate resilience in South Africa and other vulnerable regions across the Global South.

1. Introduction

Climate change is widely recognized as one of the most pressing global environmental challenges of the 21st century, with far-reaching implications for natural systems, water resources, agricultural productivity, and human well-being [1]. Accelerated greenhouse gas emissions have driven unprecedented shifts in global climate systems, resulting in rising temperatures, altered precipitation regimes, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and disruptions to hydrological cycles [2]. These impacts are projected to intensify in the coming decades, disproportionately affecting regions with pre-existing environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is among the most climate-vulnerable regions globally due to its strong reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited adaptive capacity, and widespread poverty [3,4]. Climate variability in the region has already contributed to declining water availability, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased food insecurity [5]. Projections indicate that mean annual temperatures could rise by 2–4 °C by the end of the century, accompanied by increasingly erratic rainfall patterns and declining river flows [6,7,8]. These trends are likely to exacerbate rural poverty, intensify resource competition, and undermine sustainable development efforts [9].

Within this regional context, South Africa represents a particularly critical case due to its inherent water scarcity, high climatic variability, and pronounced socio-economic inequalities. With average annual rainfall significantly below the global average, the country is already experiencing rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, increased evapotranspiration, and more frequent droughts [10,11,12]. These climatic stressors are further compounded by population growth, land degradation, and governance challenges, placing considerable strain on both water resources and agricultural systems [13,14]. Consequently, agricultural productivity, particularly among smallholder farmers, remains highly vulnerable due to limited access to irrigation, financial resources, and climate information services [15].

A growing body of research has examined the impacts of climate change on water resources and crop production in South Africa, alongside various adaptation strategies [16,17,18,19,20,21]. However, existing studies are often fragmented, focusing on individual components such as hydrological processes, crop yields, or specific adaptation interventions in isolation. This limits a comprehensive understanding of the complex interconnections between climate change, water systems, agricultural productivity, and socio-economic dynamics. Furthermore, while numerous adaptation strategies have been proposed [22,23,24,25,26,27], there remains a limited synthesis of their effectiveness, scalability, and inclusiveness, particularly for vulnerable groups such as smallholder farmers. In addition, significant gaps persist in integrating modelling outputs with policy frameworks and local-level adaptation practices, thereby constraining the translation of scientific knowledge into actionable and context-specific solutions.

To address these gaps, this study provides a comprehensive and integrated review of climate change impacts on water resources and crop production in South Africa, while critically evaluating adaptation strategies across multiple scales. Drawing on approximately 162 peer-reviewed studies and institutional reports published between 2010 and 2025, the review adopts an interdisciplinary approach that combines empirical evidence, modelling studies, and policy analyses. The novelty of this study lies in its holistic synthesis of the water–agriculture–adaptation nexus, its critical assessment of the effectiveness and limitations of existing adaptation responses, and its emphasis on the science–policy interface. By bridging disciplinary silos and highlighting linkages between biophysical processes, socio-economic factors, and governance systems, the study advances a more integrated understanding of climate resilience.

Specifically, the study aims to: (i) analyze historical and projected climate trends; (ii) assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems and agricultural productivity; and (iii) evaluate the scope, effectiveness, and limitations of policy-driven and community-based adaptation responses. The insights generated contribute to ongoing efforts to develop inclusive, context-specific, and scalable adaptation strategies, while also identifying priority areas for future research and policy intervention in South Africa and other climate-vulnerable regions.

2. Materials and Methods

This study adopts a narrative review approach to synthesize existing knowledge on the impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural systems in South Africa, as well as associated adaptation responses. The review integrates findings from a wide range of peer-reviewed journal articles, institutional reports, and policy documents to provide a comprehensive and interdisciplinary perspective. The literature reviewed spans the period from 2010 to 2025, ensuring that the analysis captures recent advances in climate science, modelling approaches, and policy developments. Foundational studies published before this period were selectively included where they provide essential theoretical or methodological context for the review.

In total, approximately 162 articles were examined. The selection of the literature was guided by three main criteria: (i) relevance to climate change impacts on water resources and/or agricultural production in South Africa; (ii) inclusion of empirical evidence, modelling applications, and documented adaptation strategies; and (iii) contribution to understanding policy, governance, and socio-economic dimensions of climate adaptation. The review places particular emphasis on studies employing hydrological and crop modelling, as well as research addressing climate variability, water availability, agricultural productivity, and adaptation strategies.

Although the review is narrative rather than systematic, efforts were made to ensure balanced representation across disciplines, geographic regions, and methodological approaches. This includes capturing a range of perspectives from biophysical modelling studies, socio-economic analyses, and policy-oriented research. To enhance analytical depth, findings from the selected studies were critically examined and synthesized to identify key trends, areas of agreement and divergence, and sources of uncertainty. This approach enables a holistic understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation responses in South Africa, while also highlighting critical knowledge gaps and areas requiring further research.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Climate Change in South Africa

South Africa, located at the southernmost tip of the African continent, is characterized by a diverse array of climatic zones, ranging from arid and semi-arid regions in the west to more temperate and subtropical climates in the east [12]. This climatic diversity is shaped by the country’s complex topography and the influence of the two major ocean currents: the cold Benguela current along the western coastline and the warm Agulhas current along the east. Despite this natural variability, South Africa remains highly vulnerable to climate change, a vulnerability compounded by entrenched socio-economic challenges, including widespread poverty, inequality, and an overreliance on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and energy [26,28]. The country’s inherent water scarcity, coupled with increasing demand and degradation of water infrastructure, further undermines its adaptive capacity, making it one of the world’s recognized climate change hotspots [29,30].

Over the past century, South Africa has experienced a significant warming trend. Average surface temperatures have risen by approximately 1.5 °C, outpacing the global average warming of around 1.1 °C [12,31]. According to the South African Weather Service, the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, including heatwaves and unusually hot days, have notably increased across the interior plateau [32]. The years 2015 and 2019, for instance, were among the hottest on record, featuring widespread temperature anomalies across multiple climatic zones [30,32]. Rainfall patterns have become increasingly erratic and unpredictable, characterized by heightened inter-annual variability. While the Western and Northern Cape provinces have experienced prolonged and severe droughts, most notably the 2015–2018 drought that brought Cape Town perilously close to “Day Zero” [33], several eastern and coastal regions have concurrently experienced an increase in high-intensity rainfall events [34]. This spatial variability in climate extremes presents a dual challenge: persistent water scarcity in arid regions and heightened flood risks in others, leading to flash floods, landslides, and significant infrastructural damage.

The incidence and severity of extreme weather events have escalated in recent years, leading to substantial socio-economic and environmental consequences across South Africa. Provinces such as Limpopo, Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal have been particularly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters. This heightened vulnerability is driven by a combination of structural and socio-economic factors, including unplanned urban expansion, insufficient infrastructure, and widespread rural poverty [35,36]. A striking example is the catastrophic flooding in KwaZulu-Natal in April 2022, which resulted in the loss of over 400 lives and caused extensive damage to homes, transportation networks, and public utilities [37,38]. Similarly, the Eastern Cape has experienced repeated climate-related disasters, with impacts intensified by inadequate early warning systems and the proliferation of informal settlements in high-risk, flood-prone areas [39]. In addition to flooding, other extreme events, such as wildfires, heat waves, and severe storms, are becoming increasingly common. These hazards contribute to environmental degradation, disrupt ecosystems, and pose serious risks to both biodiversity and human livelihoods.

Climate projections under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) indicate profound changes to South Africa’s future climate. Under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), average annual temperatures are projected to increase by 3–6 °C by the end of the 21st century, with more rapid warming expected in the interior and western parts of the country [30,40]. Even under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), temperatures are expected to rise by 2–3 °C by the mid-century [41]. This warming will likely intensify evapotranspiration, reduce soil moisture availability, and impose increased thermal stress on human populations, crops, and livestock [42]. Although precipitation projections are less consistent across models, there is a consensus on a drying trend, particularly in the south-western and western regions of the country that rely heavily on winter rainfall [12,41]. Conversely, the north-eastern regions may experience slight increases in rainfall; however, any potential benefits may be offset by higher temperatures and elevated evapotranspiration rates, ultimately leading to net declines in water availability [15]. Additionally, seasonal rainfall patterns are expected to shift, with delayed rainfall onset, shorter rainy seasons, and more frequent mid-season dry spells, posing significant threats to agricultural productivity and food security [43]. Climate models also project an increase in extreme temperature events, with the number of days exceeding 35 °C, potentially doubling by 2050 under RCP8.5 [44]. Multi-year droughts are projected to become more frequent in the western and central interior regions, while the likelihood of intense storm systems, including tropical cyclones along the eastern coastline, is expected to rise [40]. These shifts necessitate robust climate adaptation strategies, improved infrastructure resilience, and comprehensive disaster risk reduction frameworks at local, provincial, and national levels [30].

3.2. Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in South Africa

South Africa is a water-scarce country characterized by pronounced spatial and temporal variability in rainfall, making its water resources highly sensitive to climate change [45,46]. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and the increasing frequency of extreme events such as droughts and floods are significantly altering hydrological processes, with far-reaching implications for water availability across sectors. These changes are already reducing both surface and groundwater resources, exacerbating water insecurity, particularly in vulnerable rural and peri-urban communities [47,48,49].

Climate change is also expected to intensify agricultural water demand, with irrigation requirements projected to increase by 6.5% to 32% by 2090 [50,51]. At the same time, hydrological regimes are becoming increasingly variable, with shifts in both the magnitude and timing of streamflow. While many regions are experiencing declining water availability, others exhibit episodic increases in runoff linked to intensified rainfall events [16,17,52]. To better understand these dynamics, a wide range of hydrological models, including SWAT, WEAP, ACRU, Pitman, WAM, PRMS, and integrated frameworks such as CLEWS, have been applied across South Africa using outputs from Global and Regional Climate Models (GCMs, RCMs) under different emission scenarios [53]. These modelling approaches provide critical insights into future hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions.

Table 1. Summary of studies that have applied various hydrological models to water resources in South Africa.

Author(s) and Year	Models Used	Findings
Banda et al. [53]	Review of models: SWAT, WEAP, ACRU, Pitman, WAM, PRMS, CLEWS	Identified widespread application of diverse hydrological and integrated models in South Africa, with consistent evidence of declining water availability driven by reduced rainfall and increased evapotranspiration.
Cullis et al. [54]	Not specified	Annual runoff is projected to decline from 75.5 million m3 to 58.9 million m3 by 2030, threatening agriculture and local economies.
Du Plessis & Kalima [16]	Pitman model + CMIP5 (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5)	Evapotranspiration is projected to rise by 6–15%, rainfall to decline by 2–8%, and overall water availability to decrease by 8–18% under RCP8.5.
Leketa and Abiye [55]	Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS)	Estimated that a 1.5 °C temperature increase and 20% rainfall reduction could decrease streamflow by 39% and baseflow by 28% in the Upper Crocodile River Basin.
Abiodun et al. [17]	General Circulation Models (GCMs) + hydrological assessments	Identified major declines across basins: soil moisture (20–30%), runoff (20–30%), and streamflow (37–69%) under high-emission scenarios.
Zhu and Ringler [56]	MPACT model + Water Simulation Model (WSM)	Projected increasing water stress in the Limpopo River Basin by the mid-century due to climate and socio-economic pressures.
Olabanji et al. [7]	WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning model) + GCMs (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5)	Projections show that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, temperature increases by 1–4 °C and precipitation decreases by 5–30%, thus increasing unmet water demand by 58% toward the mid-century and 80% by end of century.
Mantel et al. [57]	WEAP model	Highlighted significant future water deficits under combined climate and socio-economic scenarios.
Remilekun et al. [58]	Integrated modelling(unspecified)	Projected temperature rise of 0.07–5 °C and rainfall decrease of 0.4–30% by 2100; summer streamflow expected to decline by 8–10% post-2040.
Engelbrecht et al. [40]	Regional Climate Models (RCMs)	Identified potential increases in rainfall intensity and runoff in eastern South Africa (e.g., KwaZulu-Natal), leading to higher peak flows.
Aich et al. [59]	SWAT + climate projections (GCMs/RCMs)	Reported localized increases in runoff and streamflow in eastern regions due to intensified rainfall patterns.
Odiyo et al. [60]	Hydrological modelling (catchment-scale analysis)	Observed localized and seasonal increases in streamflow linked to rainfall variability, particularly in eastern South Africa.

summarizes key studies employing these modelling approaches.

For instance, Cullis et al. [54] projected a decline in mean annual runoff in the Berg River Basin from 75.5 million m³ to 58.9 million m³ by 2030. Du Plessis and Kalima [16], using the Pitman model with CMIP5 projections, reported reductions in water availability of 8–18% in the Eerste River Basin, alongside increases in evapotranspiration (6–15%) and declines in rainfall (2–8%). In the Upper Crocodile River Basin, Leketa and Abiye [55] estimated that a 1.5 °C rise in temperature combined with a 20% reduction in rainfall could reduce streamflow by 39% and baseflow by 28%. Abiodun et al. [17] identified substantial hydrological declines across major river basins, including the Vaal, Limpopo, and Inkomati, under high-emission scenarios. These declines include reductions in soil moisture (20–30%), runoff (20–30%), and streamflow (37–69%). Similarly, Zhu and Ringler [56] projected increasing water stress in the Limpopo River Basin by the mid-century due to the combined effects of climate change and socio-economic pressures. In the Olifants River Basin, Olabanji et al. [7] projected temperature increase of 1–4 °C and precipitation declines of 5–30%, resulting in a 58% increase in unmet water demand by the mid-century and up to 80% by the end of the century. Additional studies [57,58] further confirm the likelihood of significant water deficits under combined climatic and socio-economic pressures.

While declining trends dominate, some studies reported localized increases in runoff and streamflow, particularly in the eastern regions such as KwaZulu-Natal and the eastern escarpment. These increases are typically associated with intensified rainfall events, which may lead to higher peak flows and short-term gains in water availability [40,59]. Seasonal increases in streamflow have also been observed in certain catchments, even where long-term annual trends remain negative [60]. This spatial variability reflects the heterogeneous nature of climate change impacts, with western and interior regions generally becoming drier, while eastern regions exhibit greater hydrological variability. A synthesis of the literature indicates that projected declines in runoff and streamflow typically range from 20% to 30% under moderate emission scenarios, with more severe reductions of approximately 37–69% under high-emission pathways. In contrast, increases in water availability tend to be localized, seasonal, and event-driven rather than sustained over time.

Uncertainty remains a critical challenge in hydrological projections. Variability in climate projections, particularly differences among GCMs and emission scenarios, introduces significant uncertainty in precipitation and temperature patterns, which in turn affects runoff and streamflow estimates [16,17]. Additional uncertainties arise from structural differences among hydrological models and their simplified representation of complex processes such as groundwater–surface water interactions, land-use dynamics, and catchment heterogeneity [61,62,63]. These limitations may reduce the ability of models to capture non-linear hydrological responses and extreme events [64]. Data limitations further constrain model reliability, particularly in ungauged or poorly monitored catchments where calibration and validation are challenging [64,65,66]. Moreover, most hydrological models do not fully incorporate dynamic socio-economic factors such as population growth, changing water demand, infrastructure development, and policy interventions, all of which play a crucial role in shaping future water availability [38,67,68].

There is strong agreement in the literature that South Africa is likely to experience increasing water stress under future climate conditions. However, the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of these impacts remain uncertain. These findings highlight the importance of adopting integrated, multi-model, and scenario-based approaches to support robust and adaptive water resource planning. Strengthening water governance, improving data availability, and enhancing the integration of socio-economic factors into modelling frameworks will be essential for developing effective and sustainable adaptation strategies.

3.3. Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in South Africa

The agricultural sector in South Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change, largely due to its strong dependence on rainfall and the inherent sensitivity of agro-ecosystems to fluctuations in temperature and moisture [69]. Much of the country’s farming occurs under rain-fed conditions, making production systems particularly exposed to climate variability. While the impacts of climate change are often more immediate and severe in rain-fed agriculture, irrigated systems are not immune. Irrigation in South Africa relies heavily on surface water sources such as rivers and dams, which are themselves replenished by rainfall [38]. Consequently, periods of reduced precipitation lead to declining dam storage levels and diminished river flows, ultimately constraining the availability of water for irrigation and reducing the reliability of these systems [16].

Smallholder farmers are especially vulnerable within this context, as they depend predominantly on rain-fed agriculture and often lack the financial, technological, and institutional capacity to buffer against climatic shocks [69,70]. Their limited access to irrigation infrastructure, climate information, and adaptive resources further exacerbates their exposure to risk [71]. As climate change intensifies, rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and an increasing frequency and severity of extreme events such as droughts and heatwaves are expected to place additional strain on agricultural systems [72]. These changes not only disrupt planting seasons and crop growth cycles but also accelerate soil moisture loss and increase evapotranspiration rates.

The combined effects of these stressors are projected to significantly reduce agricultural productivity, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where water scarcity is already a critical constraint [46,73]. In such marginal environments, crop yields could decline substantially, with estimates ranging from 15% to 50%, thereby posing serious threats to national food security, household nutrition, and the livelihoods of rural communities that depend on agriculture for income and sustenance [74].

Crop modelling studies in South Africa frequently use process-based models such as DSSAT, APSIM, AquaCrop, CropSyst, and EPIC, as well as integrated frameworks like WEAP-MABIA to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production (

Table 2. Summary of crop models used by different studies in South Africa and their various findings.

Author(s) and Year of Publication	Crop Models Used	Findings
Calzadilla et al. [18]	Multi-model crop modelling framework (ensemble approach)	Projected yield reductions by 2050 under high-emission scenarios: wheat (up to 17%), maize (5%), and sorghum (15%).
Cammarano et al. [19]	APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator)	Estimated maize yield declines of 10–16% under future climate scenarios due to increased temperature and water stress.
Olabanji et al. [7]	WEAP-MABIA (integrated water–crop model)	Reported potential yield reductions of up to 65% under extreme climate conditions; emphasized benefits of water management interventions.
Ajilogba and Walker [75]	DSSAT	Demonstrated yield declines under high-emission scenarios; adaptation strategies reduce potential losses.
Kephe et al. [76]	DSSAT	Identified significant yield declines under climate change, with adaptation measures partially mitigating impacts.
Shew et al. [77]	Regression Model	Found that each additional day above 30 °C reduces wheat yields by ~12.5%, emphasizing strong heat stress impacts.
Jones and Singels [78]	DSSAT-Canegro	Projected increased sugarcane yields under moderate warming and elevated CO2 due to enhanced photosynthesis.
Bello et al. [79]	Non-parametric Mann–Kendal and Sen’s slope estimator	Rainfall showed a strong positive correlation with maize yield
Monamodi et al. [80]	Probit Regression Model	Reported yield gain under the use of innovative irrigation system.
Rurinda et al. [20]	APSIM	Demonstrated that optimized planting dates, fertilizer use, and improved varieties can stabilize yields under climate variability.
Hoffmann et al. [21]	APSIM	Showed that adaptation strategies (e.g., cultivar selection, planting timing) can reduce climate-induced yield losses.
Chimonyo et al. [81]	APSIM	Found that sorghum–cowpea intercropping improves resilience and productivity under water-limited conditions.

). These models simulate crop responses to climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, and CO₂ concentrations, and are widely applied to assess future scenarios and adaptation strategies. For example, Calzadilla et al. [18], using a multi-model crop modelling framework (ensemble approach), projected yield reductions of up to 17% for wheat, 5% for maize, and 15% for sorghum by 2050 under high-emission scenarios. Cammarano et al. [19], applying the APSIM model, estimated maize yield declines of 10–16% under future climate scenarios due to increased temperature and water stress. Similarly, the WEAP-MABIA integrated water–crop modelling framework used by Olabanji et al. [7] projected substantial yield reductions of up to 65% for multiple crops under extreme climatic conditions, while also highlighting the importance of water management interventions. Additional evidence from Ajilogba and Walker [75] and Kephe et al. [76], both employing the DSSAT model, further confirms widespread yield declines across different agro-ecological zones, although their findings also indicate that adaptation strategies can partially mitigate these losses.

Temperature-induced stress is a major driver of these reductions. Shew et al. [77] used regression modelling to demonstrate that each additional day with temperatures exceeding 30 °C can reduce wheat yields by approximately 12.5%, underscoring the compounding effects of heat stress and water limitations on crop productivity. At the same time, some studies identify potential yield gains under specific conditions. These gains are typically associated with moderate warming, CO₂ fertilization effects, and favourable agro-climatic conditions. For instance, Jones and Singels [78], using the DSSAT-Canegro model, projected increased sugarcane yields due to enhanced photosynthetic efficiency under elevated CO₂ concentrations. Similarly, Bello et al. [79], applying non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator methods, found a strong positive correlation between rainfall and maize yield, while Monamodi et al. [80], using a probit regression model, reported yield gains associated with the adoption of innovative irrigation systems. However, such positive responses remain spatially limited, context-dependent, and often temporary.

Adaptation strategies play a critical role in shaping crop responses to climate change. Studies using APSIM [20,21] demonstrate that optimized planting dates, improved fertilizer management, and drought-tolerant crop varieties can help stabilize yields under climate variability. Conservation agriculture practices and intercropping systems, such as sorghum–cowpea combinations simulated using APSIM by Chimonyo et al. [81], further enhance resilience and productivity in water-limited environments. Integrated modelling approaches, particularly WEAP-MABIA applications by Olabanji et al. [7], emphasize the importance of water management interventions such as irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and efficient irrigation technologies in mitigating yield losses. Overall, projected yield changes for major crops generally range from −5% to −20% by the mid-century, with more severe declines of up to 50% in marginal regions under high-emission scenarios.

Despite notable advances in crop modelling, the practical utility and reliability of these models are still hampered by several key limitations. Many models assume optimal management conditions, including adequate irrigation, fertilizer application, and effective pest control, which often do not reflect the realities faced by smallholder farmers in the Global South [82,83]. This can result in systematic overestimation of potential yields, particularly in resource-constrained environments, as highlighted by Falconnier et al. [84]. In addition, many models underrepresent key stressors beyond climate variables, such as pest and disease dynamics, soil degradation, and extreme weather events [84,85,86].

Further uncertainty arises from the representation of CO₂ fertilization effects. While some simulations suggest yield gains under elevated CO₂ concentrations, empirical evidence indicates that such benefits may be constrained under nutrient-limited conditions or offset by heat and water stress [87,88]. Model outputs are also highly sensitive to input data quality, including climate projections, soil characteristics, and crop parameters [85]. Errors in climate data, such as temperature and rainfall projections, as well as limitations in soil and crop parameterization, can significantly affect simulated yield outcomes. These challenges are particularly pronounced in data-scarce regions, where insufficient high-resolution data constrain model calibration and validation [89,90]. Moreover, different models may produce divergent results under similar scenarios due to structural and parameterization differences, reflecting inherent uncertainties in modelling frameworks [91].

Projected yield increases in certain regions are often conditional and may not be sustained under long-term climate variability or increasing frequencies of extreme events [92]. These outcomes are strongly influenced by adaptive capacity, including access to irrigation, improved crop varieties, extension services, and financial resources [46,93]. In this context, crop model outputs should be interpreted as scenario-based insights rather than precise forecasts [85]. As emphasized by Corbeels et al. [94], caution is required when using climate–crop model ensembles to inform adaptation strategies. Integrating modelling outputs with empirical observations, local knowledge, and socio-economic analyses is therefore essential for developing realistic, context-specific, and effective adaptation pathways.

3.4. Adaptation Response to Climate Change in South Africa

South Africa faces significant climate-related risks, including rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. These challenges pose serious threats to key sectors such as water resources and agriculture. In response, a range of adaptation strategies has emerged, encompassing national policy frameworks, community-based initiatives, technological innovation, and gender-responsive approaches (Figure 1).

3.4.1. Policy and Institutional Framework

South Africa’s climate governance framework has evolved significantly over the past two decades, reflecting an increasing recognition of climate change as a cross-cutting development challenge with profound implications for water resources and agriculture. Early policy instruments, such as the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS), laid the foundation for coordinated national action. This was followed by the National Climate Change Response White Paper (NCCRWP) [95], which articulated a national vision for a climate-resilient and low-carbon development pathway [96]. Subsequent frameworks, including the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 and the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS), have further strengthened this policy landscape by promoting integrated, risk-informed planning across sectors and governance levels [97,98]. At the sub-national level, there has been a notable shift toward operationalizing national priorities through context-specific and place-based adaptation strategies. Provincial and municipal governments are increasingly embedding climate considerations into development planning, reflecting growing institutional awareness of localized climate risks. For instance, the Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy integrates climate projections into sectoral planning processes, while eThekwini Municipality has emerged as a leader in urban climate adaptation through the implementation of green infrastructure and ecosystem-based approaches [99,100]. The city’s Municipal Climate Protection Programme (MCPP) further institutionalizes adaptation by linking ecological infrastructure, disaster risk reduction, and community-based interventions within municipal planning processes [101,102]. Beyond these flagship examples, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) has gained prominence as a key strategy across multiple governance levels. National and local initiatives increasingly emphasize the restoration and management of ecological infrastructure, including wetlands, river catchments, and coastal ecosystems to enhance resilience to climate-induced risks such as flooding, drought, and water scarcity [103,104]. For example, the Buffelsdraai Community Reforestation Project in Durban illustrates how ecosystem restoration can simultaneously support climate adaptation, carbon sequestration, and local livelihood development [105,106]. Similarly, programmes such as Cape Action for People and the Environment (CAPE) promote integrated catchment management through biodiversity conservation, invasive species control, and landscape-scale restoration, thereby strengthening water security and ecological resilience in the Western Cape [107]. Coastal and urban municipalities have also advanced adaptation through ecosystem-based and risk-informed planning approaches that address sea-level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion. These initiatives highlight the growing recognition of the role of natural systems in buffering climate impacts while supporting socio-economic development. Collectively, these efforts reflect a broader transition toward integrated, multi-scalar governance approaches that align environmental sustainability with development objectives.

Despite these advancements, significant implementation challenges persist. Institutional fragmentation remains a major constraint, as responsibilities for climate adaptation are distributed across multiple sectors such as water, agriculture, and disaster risk management, often without clearly defined coordination mechanisms or accountability structures [67,108]. This lack of coherence limits the effectiveness of adaptation interventions, particularly where cross-sectoral integration is required. Capacity limitations at the municipal level further hinder the effective implementation of climate adaptation strategies. Many local governments struggle not only to access climate information but also to interpret and translate complex data, such as model projections and risk assessments, into actionable planning decisions [96]. This challenge is often compounded by limited technical expertise, inadequate institutional support, and weak coordination between national and local governance structures, which can result in fragmented or poorly integrated adaptation responses [96]. Financial constraints also pose a critical barrier [109]. Many municipalities operate under tight budgetary conditions and must prioritize immediate service delivery needs over long-term climate resilience investments [67,109]. As a result, adaptation initiatives frequently depend on short-term, project-based funding, with limited access to sustained climate finance [67]. This reliance on external or inconsistent funding undermines the continuity, scalability, and long-term effectiveness of adaptation interventions. In addition, monitoring and evaluation systems remain underdeveloped, limiting the ability of municipalities to systematically assess the effectiveness of implemented policies and interventions [109]. The absence of robust indicators, data collection frameworks, and feedback mechanisms constrains evidence-based decision-making and weakens opportunities for adaptive learning [110]. Consequently, lessons from past interventions are not consistently captured or integrated into future planning, reducing the overall responsiveness and resilience of local adaptation efforts.

The evidence presented in Section 3.2 and Section 3.3, which highlights projected declines in water availability, increasing hydrological variability, and reduced crop productivity across several studies, underscores the urgent need to strengthen governance systems capable of addressing complex and interconnected climate risks. These challenges call for more coherent, integrated, and adaptive institutional arrangements that can effectively respond to both current pressures and future uncertainties. Strengthening coordination across national, provincial, and local levels is critical to improving policy coherence and reducing fragmentation [67]. At the same time, enhancing technical and institutional capacity is necessary to support the integration of climate data, modelling outputs, and early warning systems into decision-making processes [96]. Expanding access to sustainable financing mechanisms, including climate budget tracking and international climate funds, can further improve the scalability and continuity of adaptation interventions [108]. Equally important is the need to strengthen cross-sectoral collaboration to better manage interdependencies within the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. Although widely recognized as a critical framework for integrated resource management in South Africa, governance of the WEF nexus remains fragmented, with sectors often operating in isolation [111,112]. Establishing institutional platforms that promote collaboration and integrated planning can help address trade-offs and enhance overall system resilience. Reinforcing the science–policy interface is also essential to ensure that adaptation strategies are evidence-based and responsive to uncertainty. Despite advances in climate modelling and impact assessment, significant gaps remain in translating scientific knowledge into policy and practice. Addressing these gaps requires the development of integrated decision-support systems, the adoption of transdisciplinary research approaches, and sustained engagement between scientists, policymakers, and practitioners [113,114]. Finally, the effectiveness of adaptation policies depends on inclusive and equitable governance. Vulnerable groups, including smallholder farmers, rural communities, and women, often face barriers to accessing resources, information, and decision-making platforms [115,116]. Strengthening participatory governance mechanisms and ensuring the inclusion of diverse stakeholders can enhance the relevance, legitimacy, and long-term sustainability of adaptation strategies.

3.4.2. Community-Based Adaptation (CBA) in South Africa

Community-Based Adaptation (CBA) has emerged as a crucial strategy for addressing climate change impacts in South Africa, particularly within rural and marginalized communities that are disproportionately affected by climate variability. CBA emphasizes the active participation of local populations in designing, implementing, and monitoring adaptive strategies that align with their specific environmental, cultural, and socio-economic contexts [26,117]. Unlike conventional top-down approaches, CBA fosters the co-production of knowledge and promotes equitable partnerships between communities, researchers, and government actors, enabling more locally relevant and sustainable outcomes [118,119].

In provinces such as Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Eastern Cape, empirical studies illustrate how communities are mobilizing indigenous knowledge and social capital to cope with recurring droughts, erratic rainfall, and crop failures. For instance, in Sekhukhune District, households have adapted by diversifying crops, modifying diets, and instituting informal water-sharing agreements, although these strategies often remain short-term and reactive due to limited financial resources, technical support, and poor access to sustainable food programmes [23,120]. The reliance on social grants, petty trading, and migration to urban areas further highlights the limited capacity for long-term resilience [121]. Mbhenyane et al. [23] emphasize the need for nutrition education, sustainable food interventions, and integration of indigenous knowledge to support more effective and lasting adaptation strategies in the district. Similarly, in the uMngeni River catchment in KwaZulu-Natal, participatory risk mapping and community dialogues have been instrumental for identifying local vulnerabilities and shaping adaptation strategies [122].

Recent research highlights how citizen science initiatives, such as the Amanzi Ethu Nobuntu project, have fostered co-learning and collective action among community members, enabling them to address river health challenges through social engagement and practical interventions in the upper uMngeni catchment [22]. These participatory approaches facilitate the integration of diverse perspectives and knowledge systems, helping communities to collaboratively define and address environmental risks. However, persistent challenges, such as elite capture, where influential individuals dominate decision-making and institutional fragmentation, continue to hinder the effectiveness and inclusivity of these processes. Despite these obstacles, participatory mapping and dialogue remain valuable for building local capacity and fostering cooperation among stakeholders, offering alternatives to top-down management and enriching tools for river health reporting and adaptation planning in the region [122]. Ecosystem-based approaches, a subset of CBA, are gaining momentum in urban and peri-urban settings. For example, Durban’s Municipal Climate Protection Programme (MCPP) integrates ecological infrastructure such as restored wetlands and coastal forests into its adaptation framework, promoting resilience through ecosystem services while also engaging communities in restoration and maintenance activities [123]. Likewise, the Garden Route Biosphere Reserve demonstrates how collaborative governance and landscape-based planning can enhance both biodiversity conservation and community resilience, although these initiatives often require sustained investment and capacity-building to overcome technical and governance challenges [24,25].

Key enablers of successful CBA in South Africa include strengthening local institutions, investing in social learning processes, and promoting inclusive governance structures that recognize the rights of vulnerable populations. Case studies from forest-dependent communities in the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga, for example, underscore the importance of collective action, secure land tenure, and gender-sensitive approaches in ensuring equitable access to adaptation resources [28,124]. The Siyakhula Living Lab, a participatory research initiative in the Eastern Cape, illustrates how ICT-enabled knowledge sharing can enhance adaptive capacity among smallholder farmers when aligned with local needs and cultural norms [125].

Although these localized initiatives have shown promise, the broader institutionalization and scaling of CBA remain constrained by power imbalances, insufficient funding, and limited integration into national adaptation planning. Embedding CBA into formal climate governance mechanisms, such as South Africa’s National Adaptation Strategy [126], requires more deliberate efforts to bridge the gap between community-level innovations and policy-level support. Future pathways must prioritize justice-based approaches, enabling marginalized voices to shape adaptation agendas and ensuring that interventions are not only technically sound but also socially transformative [127].

3.4.3. Technological Innovation in South Africa

Technological innovation is increasingly recognized as a cornerstone of South Africa’s response to the complex and interlinked challenges posed by climate change, particularly within the agriculture and water sectors. In the agricultural sector, the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) has gained traction as a key strategy for enhancing resilience, improving productivity, and supporting sustainable livelihoods for both smallholder and commercial farmers [128]. Core CSA interventions include conservation agriculture, drought-tolerant crop varieties, precision farming, and digital advisory services, all of which contribute to sustainable intensification and improved adaptive capacity. Technologies such as remote sensing, geospatial analytics, and sensor-based monitoring systems are central to the expansion of conservation agriculture and precision farming in the country [129]. These tools enable more efficient use of land, water, and agro-inputs, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting soil degradation [129,130]. In parallel, biotechnology innovations, particularly the development of drought-resistant and early-maturing crop varieties, are helping farmers better withstand irregular rainfall patterns and prolonged dry spells, with positive implications for food and nutritional security in climate-vulnerable agro-ecological zones [129,131]. In the domain of water management, smart irrigation technology has emerged as a vital tool for climate adaptation. These include soil moisture sensors, automated irrigation scheduling, and low-pressure drip and micro-spray systems, all of which have demonstrated measurable improvements in water-use efficiency, crop productivity, and overall profitability, particularly when deployed in conjunction with institutional support and participatory stakeholder engagement [132]. The integration of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies into these systems enables real-time monitoring and data-driven irrigation practices, optimizing water delivery according to soil moisture levels and weather conditions. Studies reveal that IoT-enabled drip irrigation can reduce water usage by up to 35% and increase crop yields by more than 12% compared to conventional irrigation systems [133,134,135]. Solar-powered irrigation systems further enhance the accessibility of these innovations, particularly in remote and off-grid rural communities, by lowering operational costs and minimizing energy-related barriers [133].

Despite these promising developments, widespread adoption among smallholder farmers remains constrained by several systemic challenges, including high upfront investment costs, limited infrastructure, and a shortage of technical skills necessary for operation and maintenance [136,137]. To complement these high-tech solutions, digital advisory services, especially mobile-based applications, have become valuable tools for strengthening farmers’ decision-making. These platforms disseminate localized weather forecasts, pest and disease alerts, market information, and agronomic guidance, thereby enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacity [138]. However, issues related to digital literacy, language barriers, and network coverage still limit their effectiveness in many underserved areas [139]. In addition to high-tech innovations, rainwater harvesting (RWH) offers a low-cost and contextually appropriate adaptation measure, particularly in rural regions characterized by erratic rainfall and insufficient surface water infrastructure. RWH systems provide an alternative, decentralized source of supplemental irrigation, supporting homestead gardening and small-scale crop production. According to Velasco-Muñoz et al. [140], RWH not only bolsters drought resilience and water availability but also alleviates pressure on overburdened conventional water systems. Empirical studies in South Africa further affirm the role of RWH in enhancing household-level adaptation, especially when integrated with other sustainable land and water management practices [96]. Evidence from pilot programmes and field-based research, such as those spearheaded by the Water Research Commission (WRC), highlights the feasibility of scaling both smart irrigation and RWH systems when supported by enabling policy frameworks, capacity-building initiatives, and financial incentives [96]. These integrated technological and institutional approaches have been shown to significantly enhance water productivity, stabilize crop yields, and build long-term resilience in vulnerable farming communities [96]. The deployment of advanced irrigation systems, digital advisory tools, and rainwater harvesting practices presents a robust pathway for strengthening the sustainability of agriculture in South Africa. Their widespread adoption, particularly in water-scarce and drought-prone regions, will depend on addressing financial, infrastructural, and technical barriers through coordinated policy and development efforts.

3.4.4. Gendered Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of individuals, households, and systems to adjust to climate variability, mitigate potential damages, and recover from climate-related shocks [141]. When analyzed through a gender lens, adaptive capacity is shaped not only by environmental and economic exposure but also by sociocultural norms, institutional power dynamics, and differential access to resources [142,143]. Gender disparities significantly influence vulnerability and resilience, particularly among women who head households or reside in marginalized urban and rural contexts [144,145,146]. One of the most persistent barriers to women’s adaptive capacity in South Africa is their restricted access to and control over productive resources, especially land. Customary tenure arrangements, underpinned by patriarchal social norms, often exclude women from formal land ownership, relegating them to secondary users through male relatives or spouses [147]. Although policy interventions, such as the Communal Land Rights Act of 2004 and various land reform programmes, aim to enhance land access, implementation has largely failed to prioritize gender equity [148]. As a result, women remain disproportionately affected by land insecurity, which limits their agency in agricultural decision-making and discourages long-term investments in climate-resilient practices, such as terracing, agroforestry, and irrigation infrastructure [149].

Beyond land tenure, gender-based inequalities in access to inputs, extension services, credit, and technology constrain women’s ability to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices. Empirical evidence shows that women farmers in South Africa are less likely than their male counterparts to access agricultural extension services, receive training, or benefit from innovations such as drought-tolerant seeds, conservation agriculture, or weather-indexed insurance [150]. These disparities stem from institutional biases that often position men as primary farmers and decision-makers in agricultural interventions [150,151,152]. Women also face significant labour and time burdens that undermine their capacity to participate in adaptation activities. In many rural areas, women bear the primary responsibility for water collection, fuel gathering, and household food production [153]. Climate stressors, such as prolonged droughts, exacerbate these tasks, especially as water sources become more distant resulting in “time poverty,” which restricts women’s ability to attend training, join cooperatives, or pursue income diversification strategies [153,154].

In spite of these systemic constraints, women in South Africa demonstrate considerable agency and innovation in adapting to climate change. In Limpopo Province, for instance, women engage in livelihood diversification, intercropping, mulching, seasonal migration, and organic composting—drawing on indigenous knowledge systems and social capital to build resilience to erratic rainfall and crop failure [155]. In KwaZulu-Natal and urban centres like Durban, women’s adaptation efforts are informed by cultural knowledge and collective organization, often manifesting in bottom-up strategies that enhance community resilience and personal autonomy [152,156]. Social networks and cooperative structures play a vital role in women’s adaptive responses. Through informal associations such as savings groups, faith-based organizations, and community cooperatives, women participate in seed exchange, knowledge sharing, and risk pooling. These networks serve as essential social safety nets during climate-induced disruptions, yet they are frequently undervalued or ignored in formal adaptation planning [157].

Exclusion from decision-making platforms is another critical barrier. Despite their central role in community adaptation, women often lack representation in institutional structures such as water user associations, agricultural boards, and climate advisory committees [158,159]. Even in participatory forums, gender norms can limit women’s ability to speak or influence decisions, perpetuating unequal power relations and undermining inclusive adaptation planning [160]. South Africa’s national climate policy frameworks acknowledge the importance of gender-responsive adaptation, although practical implementation remains limited. The 2011 National Climate Change Response White Paper references gender equity but lacks operational clarity, including measurable indicators or budgetary provisions [95]. More recently, the Gender and Climate Change Strategy by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment [161] offers a strategic framework for mainstreaming gender, but weak institutional capacity and coordination challenges have hampered progress.

Nonetheless, donor-funded and civil society-led initiatives have made meaningful contributions to integrating gender into climate action. In Durban, community-based projects that apply feminist and intersectional frameworks have demonstrated the value of involving women in project design, implementation, and leadership [152]. Similarly, South African NGOs have localized international gender frameworks by aligning them with resourced programmes and redirecting funding to support women’s adaptive capacities [162]. These initiatives highlight the importance of inclusive, context-specific, and sustained approaches to empowering women in climate resilience. Despite these advancements, many of such initiatives remain donor-dependent, short-term, and disconnected from national systems. There is a critical need for gender-disaggregated climate data, intersectional vulnerability analyses, and tools that consider age, disability, and marital status in shaping adaptation policy. Strengthening institutional capacity, scaling grassroots innovations, and embedding women’s voices into all levels of climate governance remain essential for equitable adaptation in South Africa.

4. Conclusions

Climate change represents a critical and escalating threat to South Africa’s environmental sustainability, socio-economic stability, and developmental trajectory, with particularly profound implications for water resources and agricultural systems. This review highlights that the country’s vulnerability is driven not only by its semi-arid climate and high rainfall variability, but also by entrenched socio-economic inequalities and limited adaptive capacity in key sectors.

The synthesis of evidence clearly demonstrates that rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are already disrupting hydrological systems and agricultural production. Hydrological modelling studies consistently project declining surface and groundwater availability, accompanied by heightened spatial and temporal variability. More so, crop simulation models indicate substantial reductions in yields of major staple crops such as maize, wheat, and sorghum, particularly under high-emission scenarios. Although localized gains may occur under specific conditions, the overall trajectory points toward increasing water stress, declining agricultural productivity, and heightened risks to food security and rural livelihoods.

In response, South Africa has developed a relatively robust and multi-layered adaptation framework encompassing national policies, institutional reforms, technological innovations, and community-based initiatives. However, the effectiveness of these responses remains uneven. Persistent challenges, including fragmented governance structures, limited financial resources, inadequate technical capacity, and weak coordination across sectors and scales, continue to constrain implementation. While climate-smart agriculture, improved irrigation systems, and digital advisory tools offer promising pathways for enhancing resilience, their uptake is often limited by socio-economic barriers, particularly among smallholder farmers.

Community-based adaptation approaches provide valuable, context-specific solutions by integrating indigenous knowledge, local participation, and social networks. Nevertheless, these initiatives are frequently under-resourced and insufficiently integrated into formal policy systems, limiting their scalability and long-term sustainability. Similarly, despite increasing recognition of gender dimensions in climate adaptation, structural inequalities continue to restrict women’s access to resources, decision-making processes, and adaptive opportunities.

Addressing these challenges requires a fundamental shift toward more integrated, inclusive, and adaptive governance systems. Strengthening cross-sectoral coordination, particularly within the water–energy–food nexus, is essential for managing interconnected climate risks. Enhancing the science–policy interface through improved data accessibility, decision-support tools, and stakeholder engagement will further support evidence-based planning. In addition, sustained investment in climate finance, institutional capacity-building, and monitoring and evaluation systems is critical for scaling and sustaining adaptation efforts.

In conclusion, building climate resilience in South Africa will depend on the ability to align policy ambition with implementation capacity, while ensuring that adaptation strategies are equitable, locally relevant, and responsive to uncertainty. The lessons drawn from this review not only underscore the urgency of action within South Africa but also provide valuable insights for other climate-vulnerable regions across sub-Saharan Africa and the broader Global South.

5. Recommendation for Future Research

This study adopts a focused approach to synthesizing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies, with particular emphasis on water resources and crop yields in rain-fed smallholder systems. Building on this foundation, future research should move toward more integrated, systems-based approaches that better capture the complexity and interdependencies inherent in these systems.

In particular, there is a need to develop an integrated Water–Energy-Food modelling frameworks that move beyond fragmented analyses. Existing studies often treat these systems in isolation, which limits the ability to assess system-wide climate impacts and the trade-offs associated with different adaptation strategies. Closely linked to this is the need to incorporate socio-economic, institutional, and governance dynamics into modelling efforts. Current approaches insufficiently account for critical factors such as population growth, resource demand, policy interventions, and livelihood dynamics, all of which strongly shape real-world adaptation outcomes.

At the same time, future models must improve their representation of complex and compound climate stressors. Interacting factors such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, pests, soil degradation, and nutrient limitations are often oversimplified or excluded, thereby reducing the reliability of projections under real-world conditions. Addressing this limitation also requires strengthening the empirical foundation of modelling efforts through improved data availability and model validation. Generating high-resolution, site-specific datasets, particularly in ungauged or data-scarce regions, will be essential for enhancing the accuracy and credibility of localized climate impact assessments.

Beyond advances in modelling, there is a pressing need to rigorously evaluate the effectiveness and scalability of adaptation strategies. Although a wide range of options has been documented, robust empirical evidence on their long-term performance, inclusiveness, and applicability across diverse socio-economic contexts remains limited. Future research should therefore prioritize the development and application of systematic monitoring and evaluation frameworks to better assess real-world outcomes. In addition, adaptation strategies adopted by smallholder farmers across provinces with differing climatic conditions should be systematically assessed. Particular attention is needed to evaluate their performance, as well as the barriers and enabling factors influencing their uptake, in order to inform context-specific and scalable adaptation pathways.

Finally, strengthening the science–policy interface is crucial to ensure that research translates into actionable impact. This includes the development of decision-support tools, the promotion of co-production approaches involving stakeholders, and the adoption of transdisciplinary frameworks that bridge disciplinary and institutional divides. Such efforts will enhance the usability of climate information and support more effective implementation of adaptation strategies at local and municipal levels.